NSB Pick 'em #16 - Kell Brook vs Errol Spence, May 27

[BoxingFan85]

BoxingFan85, 1X

[siablo14]

wait and see.....

I know you are a Brit too and so is Brook whose dad is Jamaican, so I can no ill will for Brook but Spence's dad is Jamaica too but the English boy I was referring to is the one with the Scarface avi and sig on here.

[soul_survivor]

Spence is fav? A lot of people are going to be shocked then lol

Brook should get this on points but I won't predict just yet. Maybe looking at a late stoppage, interesting to see how both guys look on the scales.

[MONGOOSE66]

I'm a bit torn I had Brook but the injury and weight is giving me cause for concern. I thought Brook looked a tad gaunt with just a week to go he's normally fuller faced.

Stylistically I think its Brooks fight providing he boxes smart and uses angles and don't allow Spence to set - I thought he drifted away from it vs GGG and held his feet too long and lounged on the ropes way to long and became a victim of his own success. He is a big, strong WW but I kind of get the impression he thinks he's bigger than he is and a tear up is going to play into Spences hands imo
If he sticks to his boxing and stays disciplined he has a nightmare style for any southpaw especially one that needs to set his feet and doesn't move his head - if we're honest its why he never medalled at any major amateur tournament. He was a very good amateur but he was found wanting everytime he stepped up on the world stage. I've seen nothing to suggest he's come on in those area's.
He's decent I get the hype for once but they've done a great job matching him - Chris Algieri for example has he even won 1 round vs a southpaw? Not only that but not 1 has any sort of power at all. Hardly a great way to prepare for a Kell Brook.
Brook can box equally in both stances the whole Ingle gym can, all of them are taught to box southpaw. I think he's fought 7-8 as pro and knocked them all out. Southpaw styles are nothing new too him and that's something Spence hasn't seen as a pro. He hasn't faced 1 opponent apart from maybe an old, undersized Bundu who's even familiar with fighting southpaws.
I like Brook I'm honestly not sure there would be any real hesitation if I was convinced he was healthy. I just feel Spence lacking in a few key area's will be his undoing and he's going to have a torrid time pinning Brook down.

Have you seen Behind the ropes? Decent watch I think Spence has grown on me a bit tbh

Love to hear fans who understand boxing. You broke it down well. I have the same concerns for Brook. I still think he will win, just think if he'd done this fight a year ago. Hed a won easily.

[Redd Foxx]

Very interesting to see the picks here. I expected Spence by close decision to be the leading pick but it's one of the least favorite.
The cool thing about this fight is that there are a lot of legit ways to look at it. It's hard to say that anyone's pick is "bad" because we've got one guy taking a huge step up and another coming off a brutal loss. Anything could happen.

[Lester Tutor]

Spence. 1x

[FrankieClutch]

Spence is fav? A lot of people are going to be shocked then lol

Brook should get this on points but I won't predict just yet. Maybe looking at a late stoppage, interesting to see how both guys look on the scales.

What are the betting odds?

[BrometheusBob.]

What are the betting odds?

Spence is the slight (under 2/1 in most places) favorite. To put that in perspective, that's roughly the same margin Ward has over Kovalev right now and GGG has over Canelo.

It's also a little less wide than other fights that were perceived to be close like Thurman-Porter and Canelo-Cotto.

https://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/k...ence-jr/winner

[dan_cov]

I like this.
I actually thought Brook looked good and quite happy. When i've seen him make 147 in the past, for example vs Porter, he wasn't in any sort of good mood at all.

I think Spence is really good, but I think people misunderstand the kind of fighter he is. I constantly read that he's quicker or more skillful than Brook. I can't see that at all.

His jab is usually quite slow imo and his defense is very leaky. His head literally stays in the same place all of the time, which as you say isn't great when you're fighting someone like Brook who loves fighting southpaws and leads with the left hook with the straight right coming down the pipe landing every time.

I think Spence does his best work when he's cornering his opponent letting rip to head and body. But he relies on his feet being set. I've seen both against Algieri and Bundu that he 1) gets caught and countered quite easily and 2) looks a little basic when faced with some movement.

I think Brook is the biggest welterweight out there. His muscle density is insane for his size. I heard dominic ingle say that they need 16 weeks for every camp. Spence might be an inch taller but he's skinny.

I also heard Porter say recently that he felt Brook's strength and that could be his advantage. And Shawn Porter is probably the second strongest WW out there imo.

But what he can't do is let himself get pinned up against the ropes. He should give Spence angles in the middle of the ring similarly to what he did against GGG when he had his success.

What do you think about Spence's chin?

Interesting observations. He definitely does seem happy and surrounding himself with the right people in camp.

I remember him getting shaken up quite bad by Lartey (would of been real interesting had it not been for the bell but he did the right thing and tied him up) and I want to say I think I recall around that time him getting shook up by someone else. I have briefly checked but to no prevail. Maybe my memory is off and it was somebody else. I'm almost certain it was Spence though. I think his chin is a questionable and It always makes me wonder when I see a fighters not been matched against anyone that can punch in the slightest. I think Bundu maybe the biggest puncher he's fought that just sets off alarm bells for me. I'm extremely intrigued to see how well he takes a good shot from Brook a strong Welterweight puncher who has incredible timing and accuracy.

[asgarth]

Interesting observations. He definitely does seem happy and surrounding himself with the right people in camp.

I remember him getting shaken up quite bad by Lartey (would of been real interesting had it not been for the bell but he did the right thing and tied him up) and I want to say I think I recall around that time him getting shook up by someone else. I have briefly checked but to no prevail. Maybe my memory is off and it was somebody else. I'm almost certain it was Spence though. I think his chin is a questionable and It always makes me wonder when I see a fighters not been matched against anyone that can punch in the slightest. I think Bundu maybe the biggest puncher he's fought that just sets off alarm bells for me. I'm extremely intrigued to see how well he takes a good shot from Brook a strong Welterweight puncher who has incredible timing and accuracy.

I wouldnt put too much stock in prospects getting rocked in early fights. Many factors are in play, nervousness, the need to impress, etc.
Ward was rocked early on, so was Canelo and they are both in the top10 p4p. I also saw a clip of Golovkin getting rocked in one of his early fights.

When I look at prospects, there are several questions I need answered before I back them in bets.

1) How do they handle pressure fighters? (Do they move back in straight lines or have the ability to escape with side to side movement? Do they know how to slow down the pace with clinches.
2) Did they display signs of good chin or good heart?
3) Are they waiting for their opponents to stop punching or are they able to punch with them.
4) Do they already have experience in the late rounds?
5) How do they perform at the different ranges (close/mid/long). If the opponent fights better at the preferred range, do they have the ability to switch tactics/range.
6) Are they open for the same shot repeatedly? (Paul Williams: Overhand left from the southpaw stance)

Spence opponents havent forced him to answer this questions yet. So Im not inclined to back him yet. He is also fighting in enemy territory against a very good guy, who can handle good offense AND howard foster will be referee, who is very eager to stop fights.

But in the same breath, Brook suffered a fractured eye socket, is coming of a knockout loss and has to move down 2 weightclasses.