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Old 11-09-2016, 04:23 AM #31
Sweet Pea 50 Sweet Pea 50 is offline
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Old 11-09-2016, 04:29 AM #32
48cantCstraight 48cantCstraight is offline
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Originally Posted by ▀ringer View Post
Belief is for fools without facts.

Electorally speaking, Trump would need to win Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida to pull off a victory. The last time Ohio and Florida went red was 2004 (and the demographics there have changed dramatically since then) and the last time Pennsylvania went red was 1988.

Polls are pretty much meaningless this far out from a general election, but looking at the latest batch we see Trump down by 9 points in Ohio. But Ohio is one of very few states where Trump can run to the left of Clinton on trade, so let's say he wins there on trade for the sake of argument. Florida is pretty much a toss-up as is almost always the case, but we'll go ahead and give Trump Florida too just to try and build an electoral model where he can actually win.

Pennsylvania hasn't gone red since 1988, so that's out of the question. Trump can do well with all the dumbass hick types there are out in Pennsyltucky but PA always comes down to Philly and Pittsburgh deciding for the state due to sheer numbers, and Trump has no chance in either of those cities. Romney got zero votes in 59 Philly precincts in 2012. ZERO. And Romney is a hell of a more moderate candidate than Trump, so I think you can expect a repeat there.

Using 270towin's 2016 toss-up map that leaves the following states in play : Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.

First off, the fact that North Carolina is even considered in play is a huge red flag for Republicans. That state has only gone blue once since 1980, which was in 2008 when they voted for Obama. The latest polls have Trump down by 9 there, but f*ck it : We'll give it to him anyway because we're trying to come up with an electoral model for President Trump.

Colorado is pretty much a lock for the Democrats. There's been a huge influx of affluent liberals to major cities like Colorado Springs, Denver, Boulder, Aspen, and Aurora in recent years. Plus they legalized recreational weed. Not exactly Trump's crowd - He's getting wiped out here.

There hasn't been much polling done in Nevada thus far, but demographically it doesn't favor him at all and has been reliably blue for both of Obama's terms. With Clinton having been a member of Obama's staff, having beat Obama in the Democratic primary there pretty handily back in 2008, and with Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric, I think Nevada is off the table for Trump as well.

That leaves Wisconsin and Iowa. Like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin has gone blue in every election since 1988. But Scott Walker is their Republican governor and he's pretty popular there, so let's say he campaigns for Trump and helps him win the state for the sake of argument. Iowa has been heavily Democrat leaning since 1992 and I don't see anything Trump can do to win there.

With this very generous electoral map Trump still loses 263 to 275, and that's without me even calling in to question reliably red states that are now considered on the table for Clinton, like Georgia and Arizona : Places with large minority voting blocks who Trump has alienated. Polls have Clinton up by 1 in Georgia and up by as much as 7 in Arizona.

That's not even counting the fact that another reliably red state in Utah is in play for Clinton, with most polls having it even or Clinton +1 thus far. Utah is Romney country because of his mormon faith and the mormons haven't reacted well to Trump's attacks on Romney so far this cycle.

Like I said : It's electorally impossible for a Republican candidate (let alone an authoritarian like Trump) to win a general election in this country anymore unless they abandon their antiquated social platforms and stop pandering to religious extremists like the evangelicals.

A lot of people seem to think Trump is going to magically start running more toward the center in the general election, which he likely will attempt. But that doesn't mean voters are going to buy him as a moderate candidate after months and months of his outrageous remarks dominating headlines. Even if voters have forgotten by the time fall rolls around (not likely) I'm sure Clinton and her surrogates will have no problem raiding the video vault to quickly remind them of it before they hit the polls.
Lmao what a ****ing castrated moron this guy turned out to be eh? Typical idiot liberal thinking he's smarter than everybody when in reality he doesn't have a fuking clue. God what a dipsh1t.
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Old 11-09-2016, 04:29 AM #33
ESAU ESAU is offline
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Originally Posted by New England View Post
this.

a trump nomination will hand the election to sanders or clinton, and republicans know it. he'll be a galvanizing force for the other team
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i can see a groundswell / ganging up from the republican party. if they want a republican president in office they'll be hard pressed to do if donald trump wins the primary. there's also concern about the irreparable, long term damage he is going to do to the republican brand
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.


donald trump can't become president. he just can't. i won't be able to contain myself
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. my bowels and bladder are just going to let loose where i'm sitting or standing.


i probably won't piss myself if sanders wins, but i'll either go back to school or move to canada.

OUCH!!!! Well, what subject you going to study? Or is it gonna be Canada?
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Old 11-09-2016, 04:30 AM #34
ESAU ESAU is offline
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Originally Posted by 48cantCstraight View Post
Lmao what a ****ing castrated moron this guy turned out to be eh? Typical idiot liberal thinking he's smarter than everybody when in reality he doesn't have a fuking clue. God what a dipsh1t.
Hahahah he conceded pretty nicely int he other thread...

Otherwise I'd own him for months on end...

I'll let him retreat to his safe space of victimization, though.
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Old 11-09-2016, 04:42 AM #35
48cantCstraight 48cantCstraight is offline
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Originally Posted by adrikitty View Post
Hahahah he conceded pretty nicely int he other thread...

Otherwise I'd own him for months on end...

I'll let him retreat to his safe space of victimization, though.
Self-righteous liberal cucks should never be let off that easy
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Old 11-09-2016, 04:45 AM #36
Hype Job Hype Job is offline
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Originally Posted by ▀ringer View Post
Hillary Clinton is going to clean Trump's clock with relative ease during the debates. The guy holds no position he hasn't flip-flopped on in the last year. Then there's the issue of foreign policy, an area in which he has no experience whatsoever. Plus there's actual video of Trump praising Clinton as being a wonderful leader in the past that can be used in a multitude of hilarious attack ads.

The big story of this election is going to be how easily Clinton blows Trump out of the water. It's mathematically impossible for a Republican to win a national election in this country anymore without at least abandoning their draconian social platforms. Demographics have shifted dramatically in favor of Democratic candidates since 2008 to the point where reliably deep red states like Utah and Georgia (latest Clinton vs. Trump poll in Georgia is basically 50/50 and the mormons in Utah despise Trump because it's Romney country) are actually being considered to be "in play" for Democrats this year.

Even if those two states don't flip, the states that Republicans always manage to sweep are idiotic bumfuck Gulf states like Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, and the rest. The only electorally consequential state the Republicans have a firm grip on is Texas, which when added to the above mentioned states still don't equal out to the electoral might of Democratic safe havens like New York and California.

Swing states have shifted in demographics too, becoming more reliable for Democrats thanks to an influx of northeasterners like myself migrating to the south or the rustbelt. Virginia is now reliably Democrat. North Carolina is going to go next due to the sheer population of liberal northeasterners who've migrated to the triangle.

This will be like Obama/McCain all over again. Trump is getting whitewashed and I can't wait to see his concession speech. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he flips his lid and starts threatening lawsuits. The thin skinned little man child simply doesn't know how to lose gracefully.

I can't wait to read the Republican post-mortem on this election, just like 2012. Where they concluded that they needed to do more to not alienate women and minority voters, then proceeded to nominate Donald Trump : A guy with a 70% disapproval rating with both groups.

Obama's job approval rating is also up and continuing to climb, which is always good for the incumbent party in an election year. He'll definitely be stumping for Clinton later this year, as will other big time Democrat stars like Bill Clinton, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Al Franken, Julian Castro, Bernie Sanders, and Cory Booker.

Who are the Republicans going to trot out on the campaign trail to stump for Trump to match that kind of star power? Both Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. have already refused to get involved this election and Romney hates Trump. That's about all of the "stars" the Republicans have unless you want to count infamous dolts like Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, and Glenn Beck. The idiots who've endorsed him like Chris Christie and Ben Carson couldn't draw flies to sh*t. Everybody else who ran against him have refused to endorse him, not that any of them were stars to begin with.

He's going to get slaughtered, and his being at the top of the ticket is going to seriously hurt other Republicans up for election this year as a result of downballot voting. Trump being at the top of the ticket galvanizes everybody to turn out to vote against him and all downballot Republicans. Democrats are pretty much guaranteed to take back control of the senate as a result of this, and it's even possible (though less likely) that they'll get the congress, too.

If any of you Trump guys are interested in laying out an electoral strategy wherein he can win I'd love to hear it. Because all I hear from Trump supporters thus far is empty rhetoric and meme magic.
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Old 11-09-2016, 04:47 AM #37
krazyn8tive krazyn8tive is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ▀ringer View Post
Hillary Clinton is going to clean Trump's clock with relative ease during the debates. The guy holds no position he hasn't flip-flopped on in the last year. Then there's the issue of foreign policy, an area in which he has no experience whatsoever. Plus there's actual video of Trump praising Clinton as being a wonderful leader in the past that can be used in a multitude of hilarious attack ads.

The big story of this election is going to be how easily Clinton blows Trump out of the water. It's mathematically impossible for a Republican to win a national election in this country anymore without at least abandoning their draconian social platforms. Demographics have shifted dramatically in favor of Democratic candidates since 2008 to the point where reliably deep red states like Utah and Georgia (latest Clinton vs. Trump poll in Georgia is basically 50/50 and the mormons in Utah despise Trump because it's Romney country) are actually being considered to be "in play" for Democrats this year.

Even if those two states don't flip, the states that Republicans always manage to sweep are idiotic bumfuck Gulf states like Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, and the rest. The only electorally consequential state the Republicans have a firm grip on is Texas, which when added to the above mentioned states still don't equal out to the electoral might of Democratic safe havens like New York and California.

Swing states have shifted in demographics too, becoming more reliable for Democrats thanks to an influx of northeasterners like myself migrating to the south or the rustbelt. Virginia is now reliably Democrat. North Carolina is going to go next due to the sheer population of liberal northeasterners who've migrated to the triangle.

This will be like Obama/McCain all over again. Trump is getting whitewashed and I can't wait to see his concession speech. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he flips his lid and starts threatening lawsuits. The thin skinned little man child simply doesn't know how to lose gracefully.

I can't wait to read the Republican post-mortem on this election, just like 2012. Where they concluded that they needed to do more to not alienate women and minority voters, then proceeded to nominate Donald Trump : A guy with a 70% disapproval rating with both groups.

Obama's job approval rating is also up and continuing to climb, which is always good for the incumbent party in an election year. He'll definitely be stumping for Clinton later this year, as will other big time Democrat stars like Bill Clinton, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Al Franken, Julian Castro, Bernie Sanders, and Cory Booker.

Who are the Republicans going to trot out on the campaign trail to stump for Trump to match that kind of star power? Both Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. have already refused to get involved this election and Romney hates Trump. That's about all of the "stars" the Republicans have unless you want to count infamous dolts like Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, and Glenn Beck. The idiots who've endorsed him like Chris Christie and Ben Carson couldn't draw flies to sh*t. Everybody else who ran against him have refused to endorse him, not that any of them were stars to begin with.

He's going to get slaughtered, and his being at the top of the ticket is going to seriously hurt other Republicans up for election this year as a result of downballot voting. Trump being at the top of the ticket galvanizes everybody to turn out to vote against him and all downballot Republicans. Democrats are pretty much guaranteed to take back control of the senate as a result of this, and it's even possible (though less likely) that they'll get the congress, too.

If any of you Trump guys are interested in laying out an electoral strategy wherein he can win I'd love to hear it. Because all I hear from Trump supporters thus far is empty rhetoric and meme magic.
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