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Old 07-13-2017, 08:26 AM #21
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Originally Posted by jas View Post
lookin at monoghan at 7/2 to beat marcus browne

and berchelt at 2/5 to beat miura

waiting for the ko odds for both fights
Berchelt is even odds to get the KO. TBH I fancy Miura in that fight especially as he's the underdog. Monaghan is 7/2 for the KO. Those are UK odds but normally US are very similar.
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Old 07-13-2017, 08:31 AM #22
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Originally Posted by Clegg View Post
Berchelt is even odds to get the KO. TBH I fancy Miura in that fight especially as he's the underdog. Monaghan is 7/2 for the KO. Those are UK odds but normally US are very similar.
monaghan is 7/2 for the win so cant be 7/2 for ko

miura didnt look great vs mickey roman to be honest mate. looks like hes slowed down since the vargas fight,

i think betting on miura would be a massive mistake, there is no way he has better than a 33% chance of beating berchelt imo which is what he needs to make the bet profitable. miura telegraphs his left hand . berchelt has insane stamina and great combinations head and body. he will probably beat miura up
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Old 07-13-2017, 08:49 AM #23
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Originally Posted by jas View Post
lookin at monoghan at 7/2 to beat marcus browne

and berchelt at 2/5 to beat miura

waiting for the ko odds for both fights
Idk about Monoghan beating Browne. Monoghan is old as f#ck (36 next month) & hasn't fought anyone really yet. This is a huge jump up in class for him. I think I can really only see Browne losing here if he gets touched up good, but idk if the odds will pay well enough vs the % chance of it happening, or Browne gets himself DQ'd cuz he fights crazy as sh^t too much.

I like Joe Smith at +190 to get past Barrera better than Monoghan winning. Not that I'm betting on Joe Smith either cuz I do think the Smith hype train will end vs a quality guy like Barrera who's not Bhop old or like Fonfara & shot. Although I must admit I'm rooting on Joe Smith. Him & Indongo might be my two favorite guys to root for in all of boxing for the stuff they've been pulling off lately.

Good luck doe.
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Old 07-13-2017, 08:54 AM #24
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Originally Posted by Eff Pandas View Post
Idk about Monoghan beating Browne. Monoghan is old as f#ck (36 next month) & hasn't fought anyone really yet. This is a huge jump up in class for him. I think I can really only see Browne losing here if he gets touched up good, but idk if the odds will pay well enough vs the % chance of it happening, or Browne gets himself DQ'd cuz he fights crazy as sh^t too much.

I like Joe Smith at +190 to get past Barrera better than Monoghan winning. Not that I'm betting on Joe Smith either cuz I do think the Smith hype train will end vs a quality guy like Barrera who's not Bhop old or like Fonfara & shot. Although I must admit I'm rooting on Joe Smith. Him & Indongo might be my two favorite guys to root for in all of boxing for the stuff they've been pulling off lately.

Good luck doe.
i know a close friend of seanie's who has seen the two spar a dozen times . he thinks seanie will lose the first 2-4 rounds and break browne down and stop him

browne got a gift vs kalajdzic. he cant fight inside and has stamina issues imo. also, the crowd will be pro-seanie which should influence the judges and ref .browne fouls a lot. seanie also throws way more punches
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Old 07-13-2017, 08:57 AM #25
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Originally Posted by Eff Pandas View Post
Idk about Monoghan beating Browne. Monoghan is old as f#ck (36 next month) & hasn't fought anyone really yet. This is a huge jump up in class for him. I think I can really only see Browne losing here if he gets touched up good, but idk if the odds will pay well enough vs the % chance of it happening, or Browne gets himself DQ'd cuz he fights crazy as sh^t too much.

I like Joe Smith at +190 to get past Barrera better than Monoghan winning. Not that I'm betting on Joe Smith either cuz I do think the Smith hype train will end vs a quality guy like Barrera who's not Bhop old or like Fonfara & shot. Although I must admit I'm rooting on Joe Smith. Him & Indongo might be my two favorite guys to root for in all of boxing for the stuff they've been pulling off lately.

Good luck doe.
barrera has the advantages in chin, experience and footwork

smith in power

will take a further look
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Old 07-13-2017, 09:30 AM #26
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i know a close friend of seanie's who has seen the two spar a dozen times . he thinks seanie will lose the first 2-4 rounds and break browne down and stop him

browne got a gift vs kalajdzic. he cant fight inside and has stamina issues imo. also, the crowd will be pro-seanie which should influence the judges and ref .browne fouls a lot. seanie also throws way more punches
Idk that I can get too excited about the sparring stuff. I don't take sparring stuff all that serious, but solid points on the gift decision + stamina issues that I legit think have Browne wayyyyy to big a favorite at -510 so dog or pass is for sure the move here. I'm passing cuz I can't get behind Seanie.

For a crazy dog pick this weekend I don't hate Barros over Selby at +2000. Selby should obviously be the favorite here, but Barros only having a 4% chance of winning as the odds suggest is insanity. I like Ward over Cacace (-150). Berchelt over Miura (-280) & I like the under 9.5rds on that (-130) too. Don't hate Loreto upsetting Knockout CP Freshmart (+245).

And randomly for future fights somehow Parker is damn near in a pickem (-140) vs Hughie Fury (+120) so I think there is massive value in betting on Parker there. I was/am a huge fan of Tyson & think he's got a huge boxing IQ that people still don't appreciate, but idk wtf Hughie is doing in the ring most of the time except looking really awkward & not doing much of anything. And I don't even think Parker is all that good I just think Hughie isn't very good & getting outclassed in this fight & those odds are wayyyyyyy f#cking off vs what'll happen in the ring. Although with Hughie's issues if you bet early on that one the sportsbook may just be holding your money til Hughie cancels so it may not even be worth betting on now if you suspect those odds don't change or perhaps even get closer.

And also I think one of the safest bets in the world right now is Floyd/Conor under 9.5 at -165. Conor has gas tank problems is extremely outclassed here & the only way he can win is by a KO early in this fight. That has all the ingredients of this fight ending early even if Floyd is old, inactive & hasn't KO'd anyone legit in wayyyyy too long.
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Old 07-13-2017, 10:06 AM #27
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For a crazy dog pick this weekend I don't hate Barros over Selby at +2000. Selby should obviously be the favorite here, but Barros only having a 4% chance of winning as the odds suggest is insanity.
virtually impossible for barros to win a decision in uk , and he isnt a huge puncher, he has a chin, he will probably lose 12-0 but selby is declining since his impressive outing vs gradovich so i dont blame you for bettin on barros

Quote:
I like Ward over Cacace (-150).
cacace was a good amateur, this is a huge step up for him from the low level opposition hes been fighting. ward has way more experience. wonder how much that had to do with him not being happy with cyclone promotions but he has left them now. cacace seems good to me to be honest but its difficult to judge when the opposition are guys who are there to survive. he does have good power. will be interesting to see who commands the centre of the ring in that one. im staying away from betting on it

Quote:
Berchelt over Miura (-280) & I like the under 9.5rds on that (-130) too.
i think both those bets are profitable. miura is really wide with his punches . berchelts is super accurate. his jab wont be able to miss miura

Quote:
And randomly for future fights somehow Parker is damn near in a pickem (-140) vs Hughie Fury (+120) so I think there is massive value in betting on Parker there.
uk judging is definitely the most corrupt/incompetent in the world right now. hughie's output is low but we havent seen his best. staying away from this one.

Quote:
And also I think one of the safest bets in the world right now is Floyd/Conor under 9.5 at -165. Conor has gas tank problems is extremely outclassed here & the only way he can win is by a KO early in this fight. That has all the ingredients of this fight ending early even if Floyd is old, inactive & hasn't KO'd anyone legit in wayyyyy too long.
gonna wait for odds to shift.hopefully conor destroys mayweather in the press conferences like he did yesterday so the odds move even more. floyd ko at just under evens seems good .


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Old 07-13-2017, 10:09 AM #28
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lookin at jezreel vs castellanos right now

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Old 07-13-2017, 11:48 AM #29
Eff Pandas Eff Pandas is offline
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Originally Posted by jas View Post
uk judging is definitely the most corrupt/incompetent in the world right now. hughie's output is low but we havent seen his best. staying away from this one.
Idk that UK judging is the worst. For the most part I think judging nation to nation is completely fine 99% of the time in regards to who should've won (the scores themselves can make 0% sense maybe 50%+ of the time). People just get their panties in a bunch when its a close fight with ~3 rounds are even-ish & they all go to one guy it looks like & stuff like that when the fight could go either way if we are looking at it reasonably.

But enough of that rant, what do you like about Hughie beyond potentially favorable judging?

He just seems like a highly awkward HW with no-pop & little activity that'll fail way more often then not vs top 10ish world class opposition. I think he could be a higher level, less entertaining Butterbean more or less. Cept instead of being obese his gimmick is that nasty ass looking acne. He's got nothing on Tyson & I believe him getting any attention at all is largely based off of his last name. Guy shouldn't even be in an eliminator for a title shot let alone a title shot even with our sketchy ass abc groups.

Quote:
gonna wait for odds to shift.hopefully conor destroys mayweather in the press conferences like he did yesterday so the odds move even more. floyd ko at just under evens seems good
Idk that the over/under will get anymore favorable then it is, but for Floyd winning by KO waiting is the move cuz I think that London presser might end up helping getting a ton of dumb money influencing the betting lines so right with you there. Although I already do got some Floyd KO props in play along with some more aggressive under bets with some parlays, but I'll double down on them as we get closer to Aug. 26 & they likely get sexier.
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Old 07-13-2017, 11:58 AM #30
jas jas is online now
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A very Happy New Year to you too. - Box-Office thx for the ribbon bro - jaded How did I forget to gift you this for that 3-1 loss, brother? Pardon me. Better late than never. :D - Sake1 Thanks mate! - OG Rodgers Have a Pepsi...they're good for you. - jaded 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eff Pandas View Post
Idk that UK judging is the worst. For the most part I think judging nation to nation is completely fine 99% of the time in regards to who should've won (the scores themselves can make 0% sense maybe 50%+ of the time). People just get their panties in a bunch when its a close fight with ~3 rounds are even-ish & they all go to one guy it looks like & stuff like that when the fight could go either way if we are looking at it reasonably.
in the last year i can prove uk has more bad decisions than anywhere else. rey vargas mcdonell ridiculous cards, ricky burns' fights, flanagan scorecard in his last fight jus off top of my head

Quote:
But enough of that rant, what do you like about Hughie beyond potentially favorable judging?

He just seems like a highly awkward HW with no-pop & little activity that'll fail way more often then not vs top 10ish world class opposition. I think he could be a higher level, less entertaining Butterbean more or less. Cept instead of being obese his gimmick is that nasty ass looking acne. He's got nothing on Tyson & I believe him getting any attention at all is largely based off of his last name. Guy shouldn't even be in an eliminator for a title shot let alone a title shot even with our sketchy ass abc groups.
hes a mover so not butterbean in terms of boxing style. he is a boring fighter so i havent seen much of him. but his lack of output could be a huge factor in him losing vs parker

Idk that the over/under will get anymore favorable then it is, but for Floyd winning by KO waiting is the move cuz I think that London presser might end up helping getting a ton of dumb money influencing the betting lines so right with you there. Although I already do got some Floyd KO props in play along with some more aggressive under bets with some parlays, but I'll double down on them as we get closer to Aug. 26 & they likely get sexier.
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