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Originally posted by fredo [!]
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I disagree, Beterbiev is alot more then just a heavy puncher, hes not a brawler, more like technical a mauler
Sunzshock from BadLeftHook.com explained this matchup best imo, this is what he wrote:
"I’ve always been a bit of a skeptic when it comes to Gvozdyk. I think he’s a good fighter, but a long way from special the way his compatriots Loma and Usyk are. I think his #1 status in the division is a bit of an illusion. Gvozdyk’s a B+ fighter, maybe A- on a really good day. Meanwhile, I knew precious little about Beterbiev, so I spent some time this week watching as much footage as I could.
After watching the 2nd amateur fight vs Usyk, I thought wow, Beterbiev is giving Usyk all he can handle, and if it were scored by pro standards, Beterbiev has a case for winning that fight. At this point, I took a half-sized feeler bet on Beterbiev at +115.
Then I watched the 1st amateur fight vs Usyk, and that fight was a dominant win for Beterbiev by pro standards. He hurt Usyk with a big headshot in the 2nd round, and got a knockdown on a bodyshot in the 3rd round. On top of that, at a different time, Beterbiev managed to become an amateur world champion despite having a fighting style that is absolutely terrible for the amateurs. At this point I was getting excited and placed another half-size bet at +100. Then a few minutes later I took another full-size bet at +100.
I think Beterbiev’s skill level is getting underrated because he’s not a points fighter. But the more I watch him fight, the more I realize he knows exactly what he wants to accomplish in there. In another amateur fight against Michael Hunter, he took some jabs and 1-2s to the face in the 1st round, but that was the end of Hunter’s success. Beterbiev probably edged round 2, and round 3 was an ugly stalemate. Point being nobody has had sustained success with jabs against Beterbiev even with a huge reach advantage because he knows very well how to take the jab away. That is a very important skill for a pressure fighter! Beterbiev is NOT Gassiev. He’s not going to plod forward getting lit up by jabs.
Also, once he gets into the pocket, which will happen after you are scared to jab and therefore cannot control the distance, he’s forcing you into either shelling up or exchanging with him. And Beterbiev has the kind of power that will bust right through a guard. So you exchange, and if you’re a tough mofo with an excellent left hook like Callum Johnson, maybe you land a magical shot that lands past Beterbiev’s defensively responsible right hand and nails him right on the chin. That shot is a big part of the reason Beterbiev is underrated coming into this fight. But Gvozdyk doesn’t have a killer left hook, his best punch is his straight right. I mean, maybe Gvozdyk lands a nice short counter in between one of Beterbiev’s punches, as he’s a good fighter and it could happen, but I see Beterbiev with a substantial advantage in exchanges, with better power, better chin, and more comfort in the pocket.
Going back to Gvozdyk, quite a few of you boxeo heads have noted that he can be hit, and he has defensive lapses. I think it’s worth noting that he has these lapses against a lot of different guys in multiple rounds. I mean Mehdi Amar landed a bunch of clean right hands against him. Chilemba had at least one dominant round and a couple decent rounds against him. Same Chilemba that got washed by Bivol. And Chilemba didn’t get KOed, he injured his hand. Karpency scored a knockdown. Stevenson landed one that wasn’t scored.
And speaking of Stevenson, it took Gvozdyk a very long time to figure out a painfully one-dimensional old Stevenson. I mean, sure, it’s a hell of a one-dimension. Long, fast, accurate, and powerful straight laser left hand. But Stevenson had nothing else to offer. He landed 2 right hands the whole fight, one jab and one hook, neither worth mentioning aside from that they were not lefts. And in spite of this, Gvozdyk did very little. He was waiting and waiting and doing close to nothing, and therefore down on the cards going into the 11th, despite Stevenson not doing a whole lot either. Gvozdyk is not Loma. He is not Usyk. He is not processing information the way they do. I say Beterbiev’s got the better boxing IQ, and I don’t think it’s all that close.
I added another half-size yesterday at +110. I was thinking of going even heavier, but then I watched the Kalajdzic fight and maybe Beterbiev is slowing down a bit with age. He’s still on the right side of 35 though, and I see him as at least a 60/40 favorite, maybe as high as 70/30 if age is not catching up to him. I’ve got 2.5 units total on Beterbiev."
Sunzshock from BadLeftHook.com explained this matchup best imo, this is what he wrote:
"I’ve always been a bit of a skeptic when it comes to Gvozdyk. I think he’s a good fighter, but a long way from special the way his compatriots Loma and Usyk are. I think his #1 status in the division is a bit of an illusion. Gvozdyk’s a B+ fighter, maybe A- on a really good day. Meanwhile, I knew precious little about Beterbiev, so I spent some time this week watching as much footage as I could.
After watching the 2nd amateur fight vs Usyk, I thought wow, Beterbiev is giving Usyk all he can handle, and if it were scored by pro standards, Beterbiev has a case for winning that fight. At this point, I took a half-sized feeler bet on Beterbiev at +115.
Then I watched the 1st amateur fight vs Usyk, and that fight was a dominant win for Beterbiev by pro standards. He hurt Usyk with a big headshot in the 2nd round, and got a knockdown on a bodyshot in the 3rd round. On top of that, at a different time, Beterbiev managed to become an amateur world champion despite having a fighting style that is absolutely terrible for the amateurs. At this point I was getting excited and placed another half-size bet at +100. Then a few minutes later I took another full-size bet at +100.
I think Beterbiev’s skill level is getting underrated because he’s not a points fighter. But the more I watch him fight, the more I realize he knows exactly what he wants to accomplish in there. In another amateur fight against Michael Hunter, he took some jabs and 1-2s to the face in the 1st round, but that was the end of Hunter’s success. Beterbiev probably edged round 2, and round 3 was an ugly stalemate. Point being nobody has had sustained success with jabs against Beterbiev even with a huge reach advantage because he knows very well how to take the jab away. That is a very important skill for a pressure fighter! Beterbiev is NOT Gassiev. He’s not going to plod forward getting lit up by jabs.
Also, once he gets into the pocket, which will happen after you are scared to jab and therefore cannot control the distance, he’s forcing you into either shelling up or exchanging with him. And Beterbiev has the kind of power that will bust right through a guard. So you exchange, and if you’re a tough mofo with an excellent left hook like Callum Johnson, maybe you land a magical shot that lands past Beterbiev’s defensively responsible right hand and nails him right on the chin. That shot is a big part of the reason Beterbiev is underrated coming into this fight. But Gvozdyk doesn’t have a killer left hook, his best punch is his straight right. I mean, maybe Gvozdyk lands a nice short counter in between one of Beterbiev’s punches, as he’s a good fighter and it could happen, but I see Beterbiev with a substantial advantage in exchanges, with better power, better chin, and more comfort in the pocket.
Going back to Gvozdyk, quite a few of you boxeo heads have noted that he can be hit, and he has defensive lapses. I think it’s worth noting that he has these lapses against a lot of different guys in multiple rounds. I mean Mehdi Amar landed a bunch of clean right hands against him. Chilemba had at least one dominant round and a couple decent rounds against him. Same Chilemba that got washed by Bivol. And Chilemba didn’t get KOed, he injured his hand. Karpency scored a knockdown. Stevenson landed one that wasn’t scored.
And speaking of Stevenson, it took Gvozdyk a very long time to figure out a painfully one-dimensional old Stevenson. I mean, sure, it’s a hell of a one-dimension. Long, fast, accurate, and powerful straight laser left hand. But Stevenson had nothing else to offer. He landed 2 right hands the whole fight, one jab and one hook, neither worth mentioning aside from that they were not lefts. And in spite of this, Gvozdyk did very little. He was waiting and waiting and doing close to nothing, and therefore down on the cards going into the 11th, despite Stevenson not doing a whole lot either. Gvozdyk is not Loma. He is not Usyk. He is not processing information the way they do. I say Beterbiev’s got the better boxing IQ, and I don’t think it’s all that close.
I added another half-size yesterday at +110. I was thinking of going even heavier, but then I watched the Kalajdzic fight and maybe Beterbiev is slowing down a bit with age. He’s still on the right side of 35 though, and I see him as at least a 60/40 favorite, maybe as high as 70/30 if age is not catching up to him. I’ve got 2.5 units total on Beterbiev."
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