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THE PHYSICAL ASPECTS
Others would have you believe, that Calzaghe's move up in weight against a man as experienced as Hopkins, who has already fought twice at the weight, is foolhardy, but let's have a closer look at the facts.
Hopkins has fought only twice at light heavyweight; his most recent outing was against Winky Wright, a fleshy career 154 lber! That's about as relevant as Hatton fighting at Light Middleweight against Nate Campbell and then saying he was ‘proven' at the weight.
Of course, Hopkins has fought a genuine Light Heavyweight former and now current champion in Antonio Tarver. However, the Tarver that beat Clinton Woods and the Tarver who lost to Hopkins that night were two different men, I barely even recognised Tarver as he entered the ring against Woods, so different did he look. Tarver was no longer ring rusty, distracted by filming Rocky Balboa, or losing over 40 pounds in weight to get in the ring. In any case, Joe Calzaghe is an utterly different fighter to Clinton Woods or the often lackadaisical Tarver. To cap it all, Tarver has never been a great fighter, merely an opportunist champion.
Of course Calzaghe is unproven at the weight, but he has campaigned eight pounds north of the 160 lb limit that Hopkins fought at for his entire career. As a result he won't be ‘bulking up' to make weight, as Hopkins did with Mackie Shilstone, but simply not boiling down to make 168 as he usually does. He will be fresher and healthier than he has ever entered the ring before.
Finally we come down to the old adage, ‘styles make fights' and the notion that Calzaghe just isn't prepared for what Hopkins is going to bring; for me, this is a faintly ridiculous assertion.
What precisely does Hopkins have in his well worn bag of tricks that suggests a victory over the Welsh Wizard? For me, not a lot, and bar Joe suddenly becoming overcome with feelings of inadequacy and being intimidated by Bernard at the stare down, a scenario which is as likely as Heather Mills doing backing vocals on a reformed Beatles on tour, I just cannot see what he is going to do to win.
Much has been made of Bernard's right hand, as being the weapon which could derail Calzaghe, and yes, it is true that Calzaghe throughout his career has been open to the straight right.
That being the case, it was wild right hooks respectively from Byron Mitchell and Kabary Salem which accounted for the sole knockdowns on his ledger. Hopkins is not noted especially for his right hook, and in fact these days, is noted more for his shots to the hips, holding, mauling and generally spoiling than any punches he throws. I don't think Hopkins stopping Calzaghe is a real concern, as Bernard hasn't knocked out even a decent fellow middleweight, let alone light heavyweight since Carl Daniels in 2002. Trinidad, a blown up welterweight was in 2001. Approaching a decade ago.
Calzaghe also has a boxing brain on him, and he is going to be well aware that the right hand is the danger shot, and as a southpaw can shove to his right and bring his own left hook or cross to bear. His speed of hand will allow him to keep Hopkins more than busy. The man who came closest to beating Calzaghe, Robin Reid, did indeed possess a good right hand, but Reid was young and in his prime. others who gave him some problems, (Woodhall, Starie), possessed a better workrate than old man ‘Nard has now.
The closest we have probably seen to recent times to the kind or problems Hopkins will present was the ugly mess Calzaghe got into with Sakio Bika, who should have had a glove on his head he fought so dirty. Calzaghe did get drawn into a brawl, but he emerged the winner by a mile, and, more importantly, knows that Hopkins is too cagey a fighter to get dragged into a similar streetfight with Hopkins. Of course Bika is nowhere near the fighter Hopkins is, but he was also younger, fresher and physically more imposing, and Calzaghe is more focussed in his big fights than he ever is against the likes of Bika.
Hopkins bluster has people forgetting that he was beaten twice by Jermain Taylor. Now I know, I know, styles make fights, but what did Taylor beat Hopkins with; workrate. What is Calzaghe's possibly greatest asset? Oh yes, workrate.
And remember, Taylor is hardly the Eveready bunny himself. Remember this is the same Taylor who fought as if Kassim Ouma, and Cory Spinks, had dynamite in their feather-fists. Who gassed against Pavlik, after flattening him, and got flattened himself, and then and lost a rematch. Remember him? Taylor was fighting for breath after two rounds against Ouma, and even at a catchweight could not fight at a pace for 12 hard rounds.
Yes, Taylor has a different style to Calzaghe; Joe doesn't fight from range by default, but he has a great stick and move game when he wants to. It was really Taylor's willingness to press Hopkins, and the fact he showed him less respect than previous opponents which allowed him to prevail.
Joe will give Hopkins neither quarter nor respect. Hopkins has to pace himself as carefully as a 90-year-old marathon runner these days; Calzaghe simply won't allow him the time or luxury.
Against Calzaghe, Hopkins is in against someone who not only has the fitness to fight at a frantic pace for the whole 12 rounds, but has superlative boxing skills, skills which he showed to great effect against the two young pretenders to his throne, Jeff Lacy and Mikkel Kessler, both were soundly outboxed as well as outfought.
Calzaghe tortured lacy with his jab and lateral movement, and likewise took the initiative away from Kessler by always being one step ahead. He doesn't just stand there whaling on his opponents if he thinks they are a threat.
What worked against an unfocused, and erratic talent like Tarver, or a defensively minded Winky Wright, will not suffice against a talent like Calzaghe, who is not going to be standing there waiting to lose the fight, but instead will be on Hopkins like white on rice from the first bell.
Calzaghe will box aggressively from the outset, whilst Hopkins tries to nullify him by mauling and fouling and hitting him on the break, making the fight ugly, and stealing the limelight with the occasional eye-catching flurry, but all the way through it will be Calzaghe who is landing the majority of the punches. It won't be pretty, but it will be Bernard who is labouring for breath and hanging in there at the end, not Joe. Hopkins is tough and rough, but it simply won't be enough, and in an ugly fight Calzaghe will emerge the close, but clear winner.
THE PHYSICAL ASPECTS
Others would have you believe, that Calzaghe's move up in weight against a man as experienced as Hopkins, who has already fought twice at the weight, is foolhardy, but let's have a closer look at the facts.
Hopkins has fought only twice at light heavyweight; his most recent outing was against Winky Wright, a fleshy career 154 lber! That's about as relevant as Hatton fighting at Light Middleweight against Nate Campbell and then saying he was ‘proven' at the weight.
Of course, Hopkins has fought a genuine Light Heavyweight former and now current champion in Antonio Tarver. However, the Tarver that beat Clinton Woods and the Tarver who lost to Hopkins that night were two different men, I barely even recognised Tarver as he entered the ring against Woods, so different did he look. Tarver was no longer ring rusty, distracted by filming Rocky Balboa, or losing over 40 pounds in weight to get in the ring. In any case, Joe Calzaghe is an utterly different fighter to Clinton Woods or the often lackadaisical Tarver. To cap it all, Tarver has never been a great fighter, merely an opportunist champion.
Of course Calzaghe is unproven at the weight, but he has campaigned eight pounds north of the 160 lb limit that Hopkins fought at for his entire career. As a result he won't be ‘bulking up' to make weight, as Hopkins did with Mackie Shilstone, but simply not boiling down to make 168 as he usually does. He will be fresher and healthier than he has ever entered the ring before.
Finally we come down to the old adage, ‘styles make fights' and the notion that Calzaghe just isn't prepared for what Hopkins is going to bring; for me, this is a faintly ridiculous assertion.
What precisely does Hopkins have in his well worn bag of tricks that suggests a victory over the Welsh Wizard? For me, not a lot, and bar Joe suddenly becoming overcome with feelings of inadequacy and being intimidated by Bernard at the stare down, a scenario which is as likely as Heather Mills doing backing vocals on a reformed Beatles on tour, I just cannot see what he is going to do to win.
Much has been made of Bernard's right hand, as being the weapon which could derail Calzaghe, and yes, it is true that Calzaghe throughout his career has been open to the straight right.
That being the case, it was wild right hooks respectively from Byron Mitchell and Kabary Salem which accounted for the sole knockdowns on his ledger. Hopkins is not noted especially for his right hook, and in fact these days, is noted more for his shots to the hips, holding, mauling and generally spoiling than any punches he throws. I don't think Hopkins stopping Calzaghe is a real concern, as Bernard hasn't knocked out even a decent fellow middleweight, let alone light heavyweight since Carl Daniels in 2002. Trinidad, a blown up welterweight was in 2001. Approaching a decade ago.
Calzaghe also has a boxing brain on him, and he is going to be well aware that the right hand is the danger shot, and as a southpaw can shove to his right and bring his own left hook or cross to bear. His speed of hand will allow him to keep Hopkins more than busy. The man who came closest to beating Calzaghe, Robin Reid, did indeed possess a good right hand, but Reid was young and in his prime. others who gave him some problems, (Woodhall, Starie), possessed a better workrate than old man ‘Nard has now.
The closest we have probably seen to recent times to the kind or problems Hopkins will present was the ugly mess Calzaghe got into with Sakio Bika, who should have had a glove on his head he fought so dirty. Calzaghe did get drawn into a brawl, but he emerged the winner by a mile, and, more importantly, knows that Hopkins is too cagey a fighter to get dragged into a similar streetfight with Hopkins. Of course Bika is nowhere near the fighter Hopkins is, but he was also younger, fresher and physically more imposing, and Calzaghe is more focussed in his big fights than he ever is against the likes of Bika.
Hopkins bluster has people forgetting that he was beaten twice by Jermain Taylor. Now I know, I know, styles make fights, but what did Taylor beat Hopkins with; workrate. What is Calzaghe's possibly greatest asset? Oh yes, workrate.
And remember, Taylor is hardly the Eveready bunny himself. Remember this is the same Taylor who fought as if Kassim Ouma, and Cory Spinks, had dynamite in their feather-fists. Who gassed against Pavlik, after flattening him, and got flattened himself, and then and lost a rematch. Remember him? Taylor was fighting for breath after two rounds against Ouma, and even at a catchweight could not fight at a pace for 12 hard rounds.
Yes, Taylor has a different style to Calzaghe; Joe doesn't fight from range by default, but he has a great stick and move game when he wants to. It was really Taylor's willingness to press Hopkins, and the fact he showed him less respect than previous opponents which allowed him to prevail.
Joe will give Hopkins neither quarter nor respect. Hopkins has to pace himself as carefully as a 90-year-old marathon runner these days; Calzaghe simply won't allow him the time or luxury.
Against Calzaghe, Hopkins is in against someone who not only has the fitness to fight at a frantic pace for the whole 12 rounds, but has superlative boxing skills, skills which he showed to great effect against the two young pretenders to his throne, Jeff Lacy and Mikkel Kessler, both were soundly outboxed as well as outfought.
Calzaghe tortured lacy with his jab and lateral movement, and likewise took the initiative away from Kessler by always being one step ahead. He doesn't just stand there whaling on his opponents if he thinks they are a threat.
What worked against an unfocused, and erratic talent like Tarver, or a defensively minded Winky Wright, will not suffice against a talent like Calzaghe, who is not going to be standing there waiting to lose the fight, but instead will be on Hopkins like white on rice from the first bell.
Calzaghe will box aggressively from the outset, whilst Hopkins tries to nullify him by mauling and fouling and hitting him on the break, making the fight ugly, and stealing the limelight with the occasional eye-catching flurry, but all the way through it will be Calzaghe who is landing the majority of the punches. It won't be pretty, but it will be Bernard who is labouring for breath and hanging in there at the end, not Joe. Hopkins is tough and rough, but it simply won't be enough, and in an ugly fight Calzaghe will emerge the close, but clear winner.
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