CompuBox Analysis: Mayweather vs. Hatton

[BIGPOPPAPUMP]

By Bob Cannobio - Floyd Mayweather is a 12-5 favorite to defeat Ricky Hatton in this battle of unbeatens that will take place Saturday night at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.

The stakes for this fight go far beyond Mayweather’s WBC welterweight title. They include:

The pristine nature of their records. Mayweather is 38-0 with 24 knockouts while Hatton is 43-0 with 31 KO. That means they have a combined record of 81-0 with 55 knockouts, and, as Michael Spinks famously declared before his showdown with Mike Tyson in 1988, “someone’s ‘oh’ has got to go.”
Their place in the pound-for-pound rankings. Mayweather was elevated to the top of most lists following his spectacular knockout of Arturo Gatti and Bernard Hopkins’ first defeat to Jermain Taylor, and while a good argument can be made for Manny Pacquiao, Mayweather still reigns supreme. As for Hatton, he occupies a spot in the middle to lower portions of most top 10s, but a victory over the king of the mountain would vault him dramatically upward.
Their historical standing. Mayweather has won portions of titles in five weight classes and is currently the Ring welterweight champion while Hatton is a two-division champion (including two reigns at 140) and Ring’s junior welterweight titlist. Mayweather could further cement his legacy with a dominant victory over Hatton while a Hatton victory could make the Mancurian an unquestioned superstar on this side of the Atlantic. [details]

[DiegoFuego]

Survey says Mayweather

[RodBarker]

Bit hard to argue with the actual fight total stats which have no bias just real numbers .

Those who argue that Mayweather is boxing’s best all-around fighter point to his dominance over his opposition. Few fighters have ever been as statistically superior to his opponents than Mayweather, who rarely loses rounds, much less fights. A recent CompuBox analysis determined that the “Pretty Boy” leads the sport in “plus-minus” rating – and not by a little. The “plus-minus” is the difference between a fighter’s average connect percentage and that of his opponents, and Mayweather’s plus-30 (46 percent to 16 percent) is seven percentage points ahead of his closest competition, Juan Diaz, who owns a plus-23.

Mayweather’s rating compares favorably to the prime Roy Jones (plus-23) and Pernell Whitaker (plus-16). For the record, Hatton’s rating is a plus-five (34 percent to 29 percent), which is tied for 16th with Jones, Bernard Hopkins, Joe Calzaghe and Juan Manuel Marquez.

[seantrader2001]

Floyd has the skills!!!!!!!

Hate him or love him, Floyd is the man to beat!!! Just like Roy in his prime the man is untouchable.. To suggest Hatton or anyone has a perfect " blueprint" to beat him is Folly!!

[PRboxingfan]

Hate him or love him, Floyd is the man to beat!!! Just like Roy in his prime the man is untouchable.. To suggest Hatton or anyone has a perfect " blueprint" to beat him is Folly!!

Didn't you read that? Mayweather is harder to hit than Roy was in his prime. Mayweather is the defensive master. Did you notice that Winky isn't even in that list (tho I'm sure he's somewhere between Diaz and Hatton)?

[grayfist]

I dunno, but I think a better grip can be had if one looks at how each performed against common opponents. I think, it shall reduce the variables, e.g., the differences in the quality of the opposition each faced, the point in their careers when they faced such opposition, etc.

Mayweather and Hatton had Castillo and Tony Pep as fighters they each has faced previously.

Going through the "plus-minus" of Hatton and Mayweather against the two, the following are what are quickly available from BoxRec:


Mayweather- Castillo I:

Punches landed:
Mayweather- 157
Castillo- 203

Punches thrown:
Mayweather- 448
Castillo- 506

Percentages:
Mayweather -35%
Castillo- 40%

Castillo threw 58 more TOTAL punches than Mayweather and connected 45 more, and had a plus of 5%. Of the 506 punches that Castillo threw, 377 were power punches. He landed 173. Mayweather landed 66 of his 151 thrown. Castillo, thus, edged Mayweather in the power department by 47 punches.

Mayweather-Castillo II:

Total punches:

Landed:
Mayweather- 162
Castillo- 137

Thrown:
Mayweather- 399
Castillo-604

Percentages:
Mayweather- 41%
Castillo- 23%

While Mayweather had a huge lead in the connect percentage (a whoping 18%), the differential of punches landed is actually, 25. Of the total punches Castillo landed 101 were of the power variety. Mayweather landed 74 power punches. Thus, Castillo, had a 26-punch edge in the power department.

BOth fights went the full 12 rounds.

Hatton- Castillo:

Total punches landed:
Hatton- 81
Castillo- 58

Total punches thrown:
Hatton- 220 (only 19 were jabs)
Castillo- 192

Percentages:
Hatton- 37%
Castillo- 30%

Hatton edged Castillo in all departments. He threw more, landed more and was 7% more efficient in landing punches. In power punches, Hatton landed 29 more and was also more effecient in throwing power punches as he led Castillo by 6% (37% to 31%.)

Hatton stopped Castillo in the 4th round.

Mayweather fought a shut-out of Tony Pep over 10 rounds. He landed 250 punches out of 490 thrown for an efficiency rating of 51%.

Pep landed on 14% of his punches: 66 out of 475 thrown.

The disparity between those percentages is an amazing 37%-- scarcely can any number represent such dominance, but one that represents his career-long average.

Hatton stopped Pep in the 4th in a fight in the UK. No stats were made available by BoxRec.

Hatton fought Castillo after the latter had gone through the wars against Chico Corrales (nearly three years after the last Castillo-Corrales fight); Mayweather and Castillo fought at Lightweight, or before the Castillo-Corrales sagas.

Hatton also faced Pep way after Mayweather had beaten Pep,i.e., close to three years after.

Going by the numbers stated above, Mayweather therefore has a "plus" of 13% (he had a minus 5% in Castillo I and a plus of 18% in Castillo II), while Hatton has a "plus" of 7 percent, which he all got in his fight against Castillo.

Mayweather's "plus", therefore, is radically reduced compared to his career-long average. Hatton's rises by a single point over his career average.

The Pep fights, though mentioned above, cannot be factored because of the absence of data in the Hatton-Pep meeting.

Hatton fans may quickly point out that their hero stopped Castillo and Pep while Mayweather did not. Mayweather fans may argue that it is just a matter of winning style.

[demirturk]

mayweater wins, ya know why? because i said so ! only one prediction was wrong this year. that was miranda - pavlik

[theggamme209]

There should be a compubox stat for how many holds ricky hatton does per round. Its probably higher than the punches he throws. Mayweather is going to make Hatton look like Gatti.