Advertisement: IBO Boxing

Canelo-Golovkin III: Canelo Opens As Significant Betting Favorite

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez is expected to win big over Gennadiy ‘GGG’ Golovkin whenever they fight for a third time.

In fact, the three-division champ and reigning World middleweight king is far more of an odds-on favorite than was the case for Golovkin in each of their previous two encounters. Sportsbook has set odds for Mexico’s Alvarez (53-1-2, 36KOs) at -260 (bet $260 to win back another $100) to emerge victorious in their recently agreed-upon third fight, with bettors able to win back $200 on a $100 bet placed on Golovkin, who enters a fight as the underdog for the first time in his 14-year pro career.

Preliminary expectations call for part three to take place September 12, and to be contested at the 160-middleweight limit. Alvarez—who turned 30 in July—still reigns as the division’s lineal champion (and World Boxing Association (WBA) “Super” titleholder) and Golovkin serves as a two-time and reigning International Boxing Federation (IBF) beltholder as he approaches his 38th birthday in April.

canelo-golovkin-london (5)_1

Each of their prior two contests also took place at 160, the first bout which marked Alvarez’s true debut at the full divisional limit. Both his championship winning effort over Miguel Cotto in November 2015 as well as his first title defense—a 6th round knockout of Amir Khan in May 2016—were contested at a 155-pound catchweight.

No such restrictions were in place when Alvarez and Golovkin agreed to terms for their first clash, for which Golovkin opened as a -165 betting favorite when the fight was first announced in May 2017. By the time the two entered the ring at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Golovkin was bet slightly down to a -155 favorite.

The bout ended in a disputed 12-round draw, with many believing Kazakhstan’s Golovkin deserved the nod. As such, he once again opened at -165 for the suggestion of a rematch immediately after the fight. The line increased to -170 by January 2018, but placed on hold after Alvarez tested positive for trace amounts of Clenbuterol, which resulted in a six-month suspension and their scheduled May 2018 clash pushed back to September of that year.

Golovkin re-opened at -190 when the fight was back on the docket in June, but once again bet down to -155 by opening bell. Alvarez edged out a 12-round majority decision to end Golovkin’s record-tying alphabet title reign at 20 defenses—and also convinced oddsmakers that he could repeat in a third fight, as he opened at -130 with Golovkin at even money immediately after their rematch.

The two went their separate ways, however. Alvarez went on to claim various belts in three straight fights and at three separate weight classes. The Mexican superstar trounced England’s Rocky Fielding for a secondary title at super middleweight in December 2018, followed by a 12-round win over Daniel Jacobs in their three-belt middleweight unification clash last May before capping his 2019 Fighter of the Year campaign with an 11th round knockout of Sergey Kovalev to claim a light heavyweight belt last November.

Golovkin’s run wasn’t quite as notable, which undoubtedly explains the drastic shift in betting odds. His first fight back following the loss to Alvarez came last June, scoring a knockout win over unbeaten but untested Steve Rolls at Madison Square Garden in New York City. He returned to MSG grounds in October, where he was considered fortunate to have escaped with a 12-round decision win over Sergiy Derevyanchenko in a vacant middleweight title fight which many argued should have went the other way.

Regardless, it exposed vulnerabilities in what is classified as the post-prime portion of Golovkin’s career. He’s still good enough to beat just about any other middleweight on any given night, but no longer at the point where oddsmakers believe he’s a safe bet to survive a third fight with the younger and fresher Alvarez.

Jake Donovan is a senior writer for Twitter: @JakeNDaBox

User Comments and Feedback
Comment by daggum on 03-26-2020

a 175 pound champ picking on a 160 pound fighter? oh my this is embarrassing

Comment by Oregonian on 03-26-2020

[QUOTE=UNBANNED;20482126]If it was a robbery there wouldnt have been a rematch. It was a very close fight. Most people acknowledge if anyone WON the first fight it was Borat 7-5 but the DRAW was also a good score. Ca$hnelo gonna…

Comment by Oregonian on 03-26-2020

[QUOTE=UNBANNED;20482126]If it was a robbery there wouldnt have been a rematch. It was a very close fight. Most people acknowledge if anyone WON the first fight it was Borat 7-5 but the DRAW was also a good score. In the…

Comment by Oregonian on 03-26-2020

I do agree with you. That’s not something to debate. I also agree that Canelo will beat GGG this time. Easier. One thing though, GGG is not Muslim and has never claimed to be and your comment makes you a…

Comment by NC Uppercut on 03-26-2020

Ahhh yea. Nelo milked the sh-t outta this one! I like G, but mid Nelo can’t KO him in 5 rounds, Nelo is the one messing up. LAUGH OF THE YEAR....GGG KOs his a$$ in [email protected][email protected]!99

Top Headlines
Dana White: Not Interested in Whyte-Ngannou, Not Thinking About Boxing Xander Zayas Draws Inspiration Through Friendship With Amanda Serrano Fury: If I Don't Get Joshua Fight After Wilder, I'll Give Dillian Whyte A Beating Jorge Linares: Ryan Garcia Has Talent, But He’s Not Ready For A Big Fight Now Hearn Aims To Resume 'Matchroom USA' Events in August Mike Tyson's Path Of Heavyweight Destruction Stands The Test Of Time Liam Paro Targets Jack Catterall Showdown, World Title Fight Jessie Vargas Reflects Back, Praises The Speed of Manny Pacquiao Errol Spence: No Tuneup - I Want a Top Guy in My Return! Boxing Without Boxing: Vassiliy Jirov vs. James Toney - 04/26/2003 Whyte Would Do Ngannou Two-Fight Deal: I'll Beat Him in Boxing and MMA! Spence on Next Three Fights - Garcia, Pacquiao, Then Crawford Hall of Famer Curtis Cokes, First Dallas Champion, Dies at Age 82 Whyte Shakes Head at Sulaiman's Position on Mike Tyson Comeback Carl Frampton Aims To Be Back End of July or Early August Jake Paul Under Heavy Fire Over Taping Content at Looting Site Haye: Usyk-Chisora Not Looking Likely For A While; Need Crowd For That Fight Tyson Fury Aims To Break Bank With Richest Deal In Boxing History Pascal: If Canelo Wants To Claim A Second Title At 175, I'm Right Here Joshua: I Got Beaten To A Pulp; But I Believe I’ll Go Down As This Generation’s Great Porter: I Guarantee A Rematch With Spence Would Be Much Better Fight Linares: Lomachenko Still Best At Lightweight; Don't Think Lopez Can Beat Him Golden Boy Prez: Our Intention Is To Return July 4, Fans Miss The Sport Boxing's Told You So Tales Guido Vianello Aims To Be The Next Italian Great at Heavyweight Fury: I've Spoken Plenty With Dana White, But I Don't Need To Fight UFC Guys Haye Supports Mike Tyson Return, But Urges Him To Stay Away From Younger Fighters Sergio Martinez: Ring Return is Not To Chase Canelo, Not Looking For Him Which Active Fighters Deserve To Be Called Great? Navarrete, Greer, Andrew Moloney To Headline Top Rank's ESPN Shows In June Tureano Johnson Targets Jaime Munguia Showdown Chisora Could Make Debut in Bellator if Usyk Fight is Postponed For Too Long Jose Pedraza Training Hard For June Return in Las Vegas Joshua Doubts He'd 'Get Away' With Making Statements Like Fury Pascal: Browne, Jack, Elbiali - Everybody Wants To Have A Rematch With Me Dillian Whyte: Wilder Is Injured; WBC Should Order Fury To Fight Me Next Haney Eyes August Return; Says Surgically Repaired Shoulder Stronger Than Ever Top Rank Summer Series - Venue, More Details Revealed Fury Expects WBC To Allow Joshua Fight Before Making Mandated Defense Against Whyte Billy Joe Saunders: I Would Love To Fight Canelo In An Empty Arena
Latest Forum Threads