by Cliff Rold
It looks like we probably have a fight.
All signs point currently to the long negotiation between WBC Heavyweight titlist Bermane Stiverne (24-1-1, 21 KO) and mandatory challenger Deontay Wilder (32-0, 32 KO) finally reaching its conclusion. Let’s assume that to be the case.
What does that mean for the future of the Heavyweight division?
The immediate answer is the obvious. Stiverne-Wilder matches two big punchers with lots of question marks. Wilder has been brought along as a project, matched carefully along his development curve. A selection of veteran names (Audley Harrison, Sergey Lyakhovich, and Malik Scott) in recent fights was better than what he had been facing, but none were able to test him.
Lyakhovich and Harrison were both badly past their sell-by date. Scott was folded quickly. We know Wilder has pop and speed. On the eve of his first title shot, we still don’t know much about how he does when a capable guy is seriously fighting back. This feels like a big step up.
It’s not as big as some might assume.
Stiverne, like Wilder, carries a big punch and he’s seen tougher rounds. Veteran Ray Austin ran him close before being stopped in the tenth. He easily outboxed Chris Arreola the first time they fought and performed well against a more focused Arreola in the rematch. Down on two cards after five rounds, Stiverne stopped Arreola silly in the sixth round to capture the then-vacant WBC belt.
Aside from Arreola and Austin, there isn’t a ton of depth to Stiverne’s resume either. Arreola, for all the TV time he’s accumulated, never beat anyone most would consider a contender over the years. Austin has never been better than ordinary.
Wilder is far from proven as a professional. It would be a mistake to judge Stiverne as holding a huge edge in that department. That’s part of the fun of the match. There is a chance to see if either, or both, is for real or not.
By for real, that is to say that we may find clues as to whether Stiverne or Wilder should be taken seriously as a legitimate threat to the real champion of the division.
The man who emerges with the WBC belt will state his case for sure. The majority of the rest of boxing world knows that until someone knocks off Wladimir Klitschko (62-3, 52 KO) they’re just paying a fee to the WBC to call them champ before they earn it.
Reigning as IBF titlist since 2006, and adding the WBA and WBO belts along the way, Klitschko reestablished the lineage of the division and is far in front of the field even at 38. In November, he will face Kubrat Pulev (20-0, 11 KO). He doesn’t have a belt, but Pulev is arguably the most proven threat Klitschko hasn’t faced to date.
He’s not expected to win.
No one currently active at Heavyweight is expected to beat Klitschko anytime soon.
The Wilder-Stiverne winner is someone who could emerge as a force fans want to see try for two reasons. Power is the first. Their belt is the second. The WBC belt is the only one that has eluded Klitschko to date. His dominance of the title scene won’t be absolutely complete until he has it.
Here is where the future gets murky.
Klitschko has made clear he wants a crack at that diadem. That doesn’t mean unification is imminent at the end of Stiverne-Wilder.
If Wilder wins, he still probably won’t be ready for Klitschko. With a belt, a punch, and the American Heavyweight market wide open, he can make some defenses and bank doing something else for at least awhile. The Al Haymon machine that guides Wilder isn’t likely to bend over backwards to risk a potentially profitable foot in the door of the class with the highest economic upside.
Heavyweight might not be a bull market Stateside these days, but create an attraction and people will be reminded how valuable the big men can be. Wilder wouldn’t be able to fully capitalize on that without firmly establishing that he is the man. It’s an easy guess that he might take some more time before worrying about that.
If Stiverne wins, his promoter Don King retains one of his rare big chips in the game these days. The last time he had those sort of chips at Heavyweight, his men weren’t often steered towards the Klitschko’s (or before them Lennox Lewis) in unification battles.
Klitschko would be heavily favored over Stiverne no matter what happens with Wilder. Can the incentive be created to push his chip to center ring?
Things are better at Heavyweight than they have been in some time. Klitschko-Pulev and Stiverne-Wilder are interesting fights. Tyson Fury-Dereck Chisora II in November will give us a marketable challenger for either side of the bracket.
And the next wave is coming. Olympic Gold Medalist Anthony Joshua (9-0, 9 KO) and Joseph Parker (11-0, 9 KO) lead that pack and look like the most gifted prospects at Heavyweight since, well, since Klitschko. Their combination of fitness, speed, and power is unlike anything to come down the pipe in a long time.
Klitschko has had his share of good opponents, but most lacked the right combination of dimensions to really threaten him since he hit his current stride. Chris Byrd and Eddie Chambers could box beautifully but at their size lacked a power equalizer. Tony Thompson had the size but not really the power or refinement. Samuel Peter could knock down a wall, but lacked skill and often left his guns in the holster. Ruslan Chagaev and Alexander Povetkin had amateur polish and good ring IQ, but were too fundamentally basic to prove real threats.
Joshua and Parker appear to have more dynamic skill sets and athleticism. A few years from now, they might even develop a great rivalry.
They’re not ready yet.
Stiverne-Wilder might finally be ready. That will have to do for now.
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
