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Staff Predictions: Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez-Josesito Lopez

By Jake Donovan

Josesito Lopez isn’t ready for the clock to strike midnight on his Cinderella story just yet.

Then again, Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez might not allow him to have a say in the matter.

A perceived mismatch came about after Lopez upset plans earlier this year for an Alvarez-Victor Ortiz showdown after forcing Ortiz to retire in his corner due to a severely broken jaw after nine rounds. The hard-luck Californian hit the lottery with that fight – one he accepted on short notice – and now snatches a career-high payday against one of Mexico’s brightest young stars.

Alvarez makes his Showtime debut with this fight, which goes head-to-head with an HBO PPV telecast headlined by longtime rival Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.

In regards to their respective chances of winning, many believe Alvarez will have the last laugh when all is said and done.

How does the Boxingscene.com staff believe it will all go down? Read on…

PREDICTIONS

The Riverside Rocky story is one of the feel good stories of the year. That being said, let's not forget that Victor Ortiz was comfortably ahead on the scorecards before he decided he couldn't continue. Lopez will be game and fight till the end but moving up again in weight will prove to be too much and the Cinderella story ends. Alvarez TKO 8.
– Ryan Burton (Alvarez)

Call it picking with my heart over my mind. Everything about the fight suggests a Canelo landslide, though the unbeaten Mexican has shown vulnerability against smaller (and lesser) fighters in the past. Lopez’ granite chin keeps him in the fight as long as he wants, and finds a way to force a late stoppage in a fight he is way, way down on the cards.
– Jake Donovan (Lopez)

The cupcake tour continues for the Mexican redhead, who's feasted on 147-pound leftovers and 154-pound never-weres since being handed a belt. It's more of the same against a guy who's never fought past 145 pounds, yet somehow was given a title shot for losing six of nine rounds in his "eliminator" fight. By the end of the night, it'll be Lopez wishing he'd broken his jaw.  Alvarez KO 6
– Lyle Fitzsimmons (Alvarez)

Not picking. Too close to Jose and his team to pick it properly but I will say it will be a fantastic fight that will surprise a lot of people as to how even it really is.
– Ernest Gabion (abstaining from pick)

It'll be fun while it lasts, and hopefully it'll be worth it for Lopez, who's going to get a big payday but also a big beating. You can't help but like Josesito Lopez after the way he beat Victor Ortiz, and you can't blame Canelo Alvarez for facing the smaller man after having so many opponents fall out. Alas, while Rocky had sequels, I don't think we'll see another Rocky story for Josesito. Alvarez by TKO.
- David Greisman (Alvarez)

Saul Alvarez late-round TKO over Josesito Lopez. Though they're close in height and walk around at nearly the same weight, 'Canelo' is accustomed to absorbing punches at 154 pounds, in addition to being the more polished, skilled fighter. That'll all allow Alvarez to wear down the always-game Lopez toward the end of what should be an entertaining action fight for as long as it lasts. Of course, Lopez will win the second he sets foot in that MGM Grand ring, regardless of the official outcome. He has come quite a long way the past three months
- Keith Idec (Alvarez)

Alvarez UD -  As much as I would like "The Rocky" story to continue for Lopez being that I am from Philly but I just can't see it.  If the fight was at 147 I may chose differently but Lopez is giving up too much weight for the stronger Alvarez.  I do feel that Lopez's trainer Henry Ramirez will have his fighter ready to go all 12 the strength, power, and effectiveness from Alvarez will have him winning about 9-3 at the end.
- Tim Kudgis (Alvarez)

Josesito Lopez has become quite the captivating story, and he has earned that press, but I think it's too much to ask him to jump two weight classes in two fights against Canelo Alvarez, who will not only be the bigger puncher on Saturday, but has also showed marked improvement in his jab against a departing but competitive Shane Mosley
- Ryan Maquinana (Alvarez)

Alvarez TKO10 Lopez: This is a stay busy fight, perceptually, without the Ortiz upset.  Alvarez isn't as quick as Ortiz, and Lopez will have some reach on him, but the heavy hands, particularly the jab of Alvarez, won't let Lopez get off enough to spring the upset
– Cliff Rold (Alvarez)

The Riverside Rocky will most definitely come to fight and he'll make sure Canelo knows that from the opening bell. I believe Lopez will try to make Canelo fight at a faster pace than he's used. Even though Lopez is taller and has a longer reach, I think Alvarez's strength will play a key factor in the fight. Alvarez will pick his spots and try to wear down the smaller framed Lopez. In another spirited effort, Lopez falls short of an upset as Canelo walks away with a Unanimous Decision victory.
- Luis Sandoval (Alvarez)

This fight is the red headed step child of boxing on Saturday night (no pun intended).  No Rocky story for Lopez in this one folks.  Golden Boy is known for putting together great action fights unexpectedly.  This will probably demonstrate some great action up until round six or seven.  Then you will see “Cinnamon” win by TKO just like nature intends him to.  Alvarez TKO7
- Frank Stea (Alvarez)

Josesito Lopez is a tremendous warrior, and he showed that in Ortiz bout. But don't forget he was trailing on the scorecards at the time of stoppage. Lopez is a big junior welterweight, and Alvarez is a very BIG junior middleweight. He is also a harder puncher and a smoother boxer. It will not be an execution or a one-sided pounding but, yes, Lopez will be pounded and punished heavily. He will sustain this methodical punishment till the midpoint and then will slowly disintegrate into pieces at the end of the third quarter.
– Alexey Sukachev (Alvarez)

Total: Saul Alvarez 10, Josesito Lopez 1, No Pick 1

The Alvarez-Lopez super welterweight title fight headlines a quadrupleheader airing live on Showtime from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas (Saturday, 9:00PM ET/6:00PM PT).

Jake Donovan is the Managing Editor of Boxingscene.com. Follow Jake on Twitter at twitter.com/JakeNDaBox or submit questions/comments to [email protected]

User Comments and Feedback (Register For Free To Comment) Comment by HayastanciCule on 09-15-2012

Canelo is likely to finish it, I think he's too big for Lopez. Lopez has heart though so I wouldn't be surprised if he manages to pull it off.

Comment by harwri008 on 09-15-2012

If anyone can pull off the upset it's Lopez. Canelo is the bigger man and should win but I wouldn't be surprised if Lopez get the upset victory.

Comment by Ring Leader on 09-15-2012

Basically what is going to happen is Josesito is going to try and bring the fight to Alvarez and make it a fire fight but I believe his power shots will be ineffective against the bigger fighter. Josesito is simply…

Comment by kiaba360 on 09-15-2012

[QUOTE=ghidra;12514626]Yeah, I agreee, I bet it'll be a fun fight for a while, and I really like Josesito, but he really looked soft at the weigh in.[/QUOTE] But what are the disadvantages of him not dehydrating? People are saying he…

Comment by ghidra on 09-15-2012

[QUOTE=kiaba360;12514605]Josesito does not have an granite chin, he can be hurt. But he's smart enough to clinch and get physical when he does hurt. I expect him to give Canelo more of a fight than anybody has up until this…

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