By David P. Greisman and Thomas Gerbasi

DAVID P. GREISMAN: Tom, my Thanksgiving dinner came with a heaping serving of humble pie.

But like Mark McGwire, I’m not here to talk about the past, about your correct prediction of Andre Ward to defeat Mikkel Kessler and my incorrect prediction to the contrary. Let’s move on – nothing to see, folks, move along – to this week’s major action, a good doubleheader from Quebec City, aired live tonight on HBO.

In the main event, we have a rematch between Lucian Bute and Librado Andrade, whose bout 13 months ago had one of the more dramatic final rounds in recent memory. On the televised undercard, Joan Guzman and Ali Funeka will battle for a vacant lightweight title.

Bute (29 years old, 24-0 with 19 knockouts) is the “other” super middleweight, a beltholder who is the best fighter in his division not to be included in Showtime’s Super Six tournament. Andrade (31 years old, 28-2 with 21 knockouts), is a gritty challenger who has been in the ring with the best but has not shown himself to be as good as them.

Last year, Bute outboxed Andrade for 11 rounds. And then the 12th came, with Andrade beating Bute around the ring and finally dropping him – hard – with two seconds left. Here, from last year, is how I described the controversy that ensued:

“Eight seconds after going down to the canvas, Bute staggered up to his feet. But [referee Marlon] Wright was nowhere near. Instead, he was midway across the ring, admonishing Andrade for leaving the neutral corner.

“Never mind that Andrade was still in the vicinity of where he needed to be, that it was not that he had strayed too far, but it was Wright who was being too stringent. Wright returned to Bute 18 seconds after the knockdown and picked up his count at “six,” issuing the mandatory eight and then wiping Bute’s gloves without requiring him to walk forward.

“The final bell rang some 22 seconds after the knockdown. Bute had survived, and he had done so with what appeared to be more than a little help from the ref.”

I felt at the time that Bute would have beaten the count even had Wright not been interrupted. Whether he was in condition to continue? I’m not so sure. And I’m not so sure it would’ve mattered. The fight was over. Bute didn’t need to protect himself anymore. Not that such a thing mattered to Richard Steele when it came to Meldrick Taylor and Julio Cesar Chavez.

Bute survived and picked up the decision.

Tom, the question in this fight seems to be whether Bute has the key to beating Andrade – out-boxing him the same way he did for 11 rounds, and conditioning himself so as not to be caught again – or if Andrade now has the key to beating Bute, whether he cracked the puzzle, dented his chin and is poised to do so again.

As for Guzman-Funeka, I’m amused that we have a fighter who failed to make the lightweight limit against Nate Campbell (Guzman) facing a fighter Nate Campbell failed to make the lightweight limit against (Funeka). Guzman’s made 135 once since then, and that was in his last appearance, back in December 2008. Funeka has not fought since his majority decision loss to an over-the-limit Campbell.

Funeka (31 years old, 30-2-2 with 25 knockouts) showed himself in that bout to be one of those rare mandatory challengers who actually belonged in the title picture. At 6-foot-1, he is six inches taller than Guzman. Will his length be too much for an aging, rusty Guzman?

Or will Guzman (33 years old, 29-0 with 17 knockouts) overcome the disparities in size and power (Guzman is a former 122-pound titlist) and use his considerable boxing acumen to frustrate and outpoint Funeka?

I’ve asked plenty of questions. Do you have the answers?

THOMAS GERBASI: Yes, David, the crystal ball has been shining brightly as of late, but I may just kill it all with one pick that I’m really going out on a limb with here, and that’s a pick of Librado Andrade to take home a portion of the 168-pound title in his rematch with Bute.

Now I’m not saying Andrade has all of a sudden figured out the Bute puzzle that baffled him for 11 rounds or that he’s suddenly going to outbox the Canadian hero, but what I do expect is that Andrade is simply going to amp up what he already does so well, add in a little more defense so he can dodge punches on the way inside, and then finish what he started in the 12th round last October.

It’s a simple plan, actually, but one that I can see playing out tonight.

And let me explain why I think this is the likely scenario when the bell rings. First off, the last thing Bute remembers about Librado Andrade (or maybe he doesn’t remember) is that the Mexican banger was knocking him around the ring before the final bell intervened.

Psychologically, that’s got to be something he’s going to have to deal with, at least until a couple rounds are in the books and he gets acclimated to the new fight. So if Andrade gets in his face and puts it on Bute early, who knows if the native of Romania is going to fold under the pressure.

That’s part two of the plan – pressure, pressure, pressure. While in England a couple weeks back for the UFC 105 show, I spoke with UFC welterweight champ Georges St-Pierre about his sparring sessions with Andrade. What impressed St-Pierre the most was not only Andrade’s underrated skill set, but his relentless pressure, a pressure that can wear down the most skillful and seasoned of fighters over an extended period of time.

Bute has been in there with pressure fighters, and he withstood Andrade’s forward motion for 11 rounds before getting caught in the 12th, but does he want to do that for 36 more minutes tonight? Can he do it, physically or mentally? I’m going to say ‘no’ and call this one for Andrade via late stoppage.

As for Guzman-Funeka, by the time everyone reads this, we’ll know whether the ever expanding Guzman made the 135-pound weight limit. I’m guessing he did mainly for the reason that if he didn’t, it’s pretty much career suicide for him. And if Guzman made weight and is in shape, he should win the fight against the talented Funeka, who may be just a step below the Dominican standout on the world-class talent list.

Then again, a fighter like the 33-year old Guzman, who has been on the shelf for nearly a year, and who hasn’t fought elite level competition since he decisioned Humberto Soto in November of 2007, may be ripe for the picking against a kid like Funeka, who, at 6-1 provides a whole new set of problems for the 5-7 Guzman. Add in his busy attack, and this may be a closer fight than some may expect.

I’m not prepared to pick an upset, but let’s just say it wouldn’t surprise me too much if Funeka pulls it off just due to a superior work rate. But for the record, I’m saying Guzman W12.

DAVID P. GREISMAN: Andrade over Bute? What’d you do, get the large end of the wishbone?

As much as I like Andrade for both his style and his story – he went 3-10 as an amateur and nevertheless turned pro, and since then he’s done nothing but absorb punishment in order to dish it out and succeed at it – I can’t see him beating Bute.

Part of that is from what we’ve seen plenty of lately: boxers with quicker hands, good footwork and upper body movement beating slower, plodding pressure fighters.

Andrade is relentless – it only took him 11 rounds, 2 minutes and 58 seconds to put Bute on the canvas, after all – but I don’t see him playing Antonio Margarito to Bute’s Miguel Cotto.

Bute won the first fight with Andrade by controlling distance. He made Andrade come forward to find him, and Andrade often would not throw because Bute was out of range. But then Bute would quickly jump in range, throw a three-punch combination, and then move away. Lather. Rinse. Repeat if desired.

Our good friends at CompuBox went back and did a punch count for Bute-Andrade 1. Andrade out-landed Bute in three of the 12 rounds and was just a tiny bit less than him in two other rounds.

A solid landed shot from Andrade was rare, however, except in the rounds I had him clearly winning – the fifth and, of course, the 12th.

Part of this is Andrade’s habits. When his left glove is up, he moves it vertically while he’s coming forward and cannot punch with that hand while doing so. And his right glove often drops at an angle that makes him basically throw his right hands from his waist, pushing them awkwardly and inefficiently.

Bute’s advantages in speed aren’t as wide as we’ve seen in other bouts of late; they’re there, but they’re not quite Chad Dawson over Glen Johnson or Andre Ward over Mikkel Kessler.

Nevertheless, Bute had and should still have the formula for beating Andrade. I don’t know how he suddenly got so exhausted in the 12th – he still had energy for about the first minute before everything fell apart. He wasn’t overexerting himself either; for those first 11 rounds, he averaged about 53 punches thrown per round.

I think Bute got caught, both by some strong, short sledgehammers on the inside, and, while there, some incidental (not accidental, not intentional) head clashes.

Bute had the stuff to be the winner for nearly the whole fight. This isn’t Julio Cesar Chavez losing most of the bout to Meldrick Taylor but breaking him down along the way. This is a guy who can use the same strategy as last time, but this time he’ll hold on for another unanimous decision, this one without the last-second fright.

As for Guzman-Funeka, as this article went to press, both fighters were reported to have made weight.

And, as with my Bute-Andrade pick, I’ll follow recent trends – guys who know how to box their way to a decision win andwho  have shown a willingness to stink out the joint will do exactly that.

Like you, I can see a Funeka win. But I have to go with a guy who’s long shown himself to be on that chanpionship level, even if he’s dealing with age and making weight, over a guy who’s only recently shown himself to be a contender.

Guzman by decision. Hopefully he doesn’t try to be the human version of tryptophan.