by Cliff Rold
There’s something about punchers.
With losses to Joachim Alcine (debatable) and Marco Antonio Rubio (by stoppage), David Lemieux should be and largely is seen as a prohibitive underdog. A career best win over someone like Hassan N’Dam N’Jikam wouldn’t merit that high of regard right now in a deep top ten like Welterweight or Flyweight.
Fans don’t buy tickets because of where fighters are rated or divisional depth. Style counts. This fight has the style that often counts most. Madison Square Garden will be jam packed because of it. That two middleweight belts will be unified is just a bonus.
As long as it lasts, this edition of HBO on pay-per-view (9 PM EST/6 PM PST) is going to feature two big time punchers throwing bricks at each other. The biggest upset wouldn’t be Lemieux defeating Gennady Golovkin. It would be the fight going to a decision.
Let’s go to the report card.
The Ledger
Gennady Golovkin
Age: 33
Title: WBA, IBO Middleweight (2010-Present, 14 Defenses)
Previous Titles: None
Height: 5’10 ½
Weight: 159.4 lbs.
Hails from: Los Angeles, California (Hails from Kazakhstan)
Record: 33-0, 30 KO
Rankings: #1 (BoxingScene, TBRB, Ring, BoxRec), #2 (ESPN)
Record in Major Title Fights: 14-0, 14 KO (15-0, 15 KO including interim title fights)
Current/Former World Champions Faced: 2 (Kasim Ouma TKO10, Daniel Geale TKO3)
Vs.
David Lemieux
Age: 26
Title: IBF Middleweight (2015-Present, 1st Attempted Defense)
Previous Titles: None
Height: 5’9 ½
Weight: 159.8 lbs.
Hails from: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Record: 34-2, 31 KO, 1 KOBY
Rankings: #4 (BoxingScene, TBRB, Ring), #5 (ESPN, BoxRec)
Record in Major Title Fights: 1-0
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 2 (Joachim Alcine L12; Hassan N’Dam N’Jikam UD12)
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Golovkin B; Lemieux A-
Pre-Fight: Power – Golovkin A+; Lemieux A
Pre-Fight: Defense – Golovkin B; Lemieux B-
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Golovkin A; Lemieux B+
The element that may make this truly thrilling in the early rounds is the speed of Lemieux. At least on tape, he appears the quicker man. Lemieux isn’t going to come out of the blocks and get on the back foot looking to box. His best chance is to back Golovkin up and hurt him early.
If he doesn’t, this could get nasty for the Canadian. While their reach is similar on paper, the way Golovkin executes is technically superior, thus the edge. He uses a long, hard jab to push opponents back and punishes the body as he gets closer. While not as quick as Lemieux, Golovkin is accurate and knows how to establish his attack. He is thinking while playing the wrecking ball.
Defensively, both men can be irresponsible but Golovkin is the more fundamentally sound. While some would look at the opponent as reason for less care, the quick-handed Willie Monroe got plenty of leather in. Any man can be beat to the punch. Golovkin can’t let Lemieux get in free shots without putting himself at risk.
Lemieux’s hell bent style is always going to see him catching at some point. To his credit, his head movement and blocking have improved since the loss to Rubio. So has his stamina. Lemieux is only 26 and has been in many ways a work in progress. Whether there is enough progress to deal with Golovkin remains to be seen. As he attacks early, he has to be wary of counters. Golovkin is good at throwing back under fire.
Ask Daniel Geale.
No matter the improvements, Golovkin has to be seen as having the higher intangibles. His stamina has been consistent. To date, his whiskers have appeared better. Against common foes Rubio and Gabriel Rosado, he’s had superior outcomes. Golovkin still has a lot to prove in terms of elite competition. Lemieux hasn’t shown that he qualifies as that yet.
He has a chance Saturday night.
The Pick
Anyone with the speed and power of Lemieux is a live underdog. If he can hurt Golovkin early and force an all out war, if he can create the sort of chaos that throws technical considerations out the window, he will get his chances.
Even in that scenario, Golovkin probably prevails. That doesn’t take into account the other boxing advantages Golovkin brings to the ring. For all the fanfare he’s earned in a streak of twenty knockouts, it’s easy to forget that Golovkin was a highly accomplished amateur. He knows how to fight more than one way. His jab will be the key to controlling and disrupting the offense of Lemieux. Of the two, Golovkin has a much better chance to succeed going backwards.
Off the back foot, Lemieux can only hope for a blind prayer counter. He has to be able to consistently come forward and keep the pace where he wants it. For a few rounds, he might. His better speed could take Golovkin time to contain.
Eventually Golovkin will and then this fight is over. The pick is Golovkin by stoppage anywhere from the third round to the fifth in a fight that sends the fans home happy.
Report Card and Staff Picks 2015: 75-20
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
