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Old 12-06-2013, 08:01 AM
Heru
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Originally Posted by Weebler I View Post
Potential for draws this weekend, always good odds. Barker-Sturm, Trout-Lara, Judah-Malignaggi, Alexander-Porter and maybe Bika-Dirrell. All close fights featuring guys who aren't necessarily all that powerful.
Bika-Dirrell will be a strong candidate for a draw... The styles and attributes in that fight are a nice contrast, but it all depends on how often Dirrell gives ground to an oncoming Bika. If Sakio can make it to the inside as often as Mouton did, Anthony is in trouble.

I rarely take action on the draw though. I usually give the edge to a fighter or try to completely stay away from it.

Unless I see something different during my study, I have Barker, Lara, Malignaggi, Alexander, and Bika. The one I am having a difficult time predicting beforehand is Kirkland-Tapia (that can change after studying of course). A ton of close fights and betting lines on deck though. This is a bettor's dream/nightmare weekend (if you know what you're doing, you'll find out this week)...
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Old 12-06-2013, 09:06 AM
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Bika-Dirrell will be a strong candidate for a draw... The styles and attributes in that fight are a nice contrast, but it all depends on how often Dirrell gives ground to an oncoming Bika. If Sakio can make it to the inside as often as Mouton did, Anthony is in trouble.
I think this one could be referee-dependent. If Bika is not allowed to work the inside, I see Dirrell taking it. I'm also factoring in Dirrell as the younger "home" fighter with the much greater upside, I guess the crowd will be backing him too.

Quote:
I rarely take action on the draw though. I usually give the edge to a fighter or try to completely stay away from it.

Unless I see something different during my study, I have Barker, Lara, Malignaggi, Alexander, and Bika. The one I am having a difficult time predicting beforehand is Kirkland-Tapia (that can change after studying of course). A ton of close fights and betting lines on deck though. This is a bettor's dream/nightmare weekend (if you know what you're doing, you'll find out this week)...
I'm not really liking it. I like betting on fighters with power and this weekend most of them lack concussive punching power. When fighters lack power, one is left relying on the judges who are often wrong/crooked so even if you pick the right fighter you can pick the wrong decision. Patiently waiting for Karass-Thurman and hoping for some good odds.

Last edited by Weebler I; 12-06-2013 at 09:24 AM.
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Old 12-06-2013, 12:08 PM
Heru
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Parlayed Stevenson by KO/TKO/DQ with Zolani Tete to win... Also had action on Stevenson 4-6 and 1-6, which made for one of my best weeks to date... Stevenson-Bellew going one more round would've really cut into my earnings, but Tete coming through gave me a nice addition on a 5.5-1...

Stayed away from Mundine-Mosley... Good thing I did because I would've propped it and lost, I was leaning to Mundine, but by 12 round decision and I wasn't going to safeguard it because him inside the distance was the last result I saw coming.

I put a couple hundred on Vetyeko to win against Chris John... It's in Australia so Vetyeko will get a fairer shake than he would in Indonesia. He has a slight speed edge and his ability to box and defend on the outside is solid. If he wins on the outside and goes to the body early, he'll have John reeling in the 2nd half and will comfortably outpoint him... The fight stopped action at 6:30, but I don't have a stream so I'm clueless to what's going on.
The stoppage was even better... Vetyeko came through.
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Old 12-07-2013, 09:46 AM
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So many fights this weekend.

A lot of money coming in on Kirkland and Lara the past few days. I'd love to bet against Kirkland here but Tapia has yet to be tested. I believe he is more skilled. Then again most are more skilled than Kirkland. I like the under 7 1/2 there at +105. Tapia likes to mix it up. Not sure he can keep the fight on the back foot for long. And I do not trust Kirkland's chin as he has been rocked or put down in a lot of his recent fights aside from Molina who can't break an egg.

I used to be really high on Lara. His stock has fallen to me. I look at Trout as a guy who may not be as powerful or skilled, but a guy who will at least keep his hands moving. If that line keeps moving even more I see value in that one in what I think is a 50/50 fight.
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Old 12-07-2013, 10:04 AM
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Lamar Russ +260
Let's gooooooo

Also Tapia/Kirkland U7.5
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Old 12-07-2013, 10:14 AM
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I used to be really high on Lara. His stock has fallen to me. I look at Trout as a guy who may not be as powerful or skilled, but a guy who will at least keep his hands moving. If that line keeps moving even more I see value in that one in what I think is a 50/50 fight.
I don't touch anything I regard as 50/50. That's real gambling. May as well play roulette. That said, if one is determined to place a bet, I would go with Trout (bite my tongue). He's a Haymon fighter in a close match-up that promises to go the distance. If the betting odds are tilted towards Lara, the deal is done.
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Old 12-07-2013, 07:06 PM
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I like draws in all the big fights, Bika just over evens to win. 3/1 via stoppage.

Macklin PTS is 7/4
Lara PTS is 7/4
Kirkland KO is 7/4

Are the bets I like the most.


Thought Rigondeaux would have better odds to win via stoppage (currently 6/4) which is shit considering... I would've jumped on it if the odds were better...
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Old 12-07-2013, 07:10 PM
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I don't touch anything I regard as 50/50. That's real gambling. May as well play roulette. That said, if one is determined to place a bet, I would go with Trout (bite my tongue). He's a Haymon fighter in a close match-up that promises to go the distance. If the betting odds are tilted towards Lara, the deal is done.
well that's your problem. no fight is truly 50/50 if you know boxing like roger mayweather and I.
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Old 12-07-2013, 07:48 PM
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Alexander-Porter could be a draw, Trout-Lara could be a draw, Tapia-Kirkland could be a draw, and Judah-Paulie could be a draw........a lot of potential tonight.
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Old 12-07-2013, 10:31 PM
Weebler I
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Bika-Dirrell will be a strong candidate for a draw...
Good shout.

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Originally Posted by CubanGuyNYC View Post
I don't touch anything I regard as 50/50. That's real gambling. May as well play roulette. That said, if one is determined to place a bet, I would go with Trout (bite my tongue). He's a Haymon fighter in a close match-up that promises to go the distance. If the betting odds are tilted towards Lara, the deal is done.
Nor I, other than a punt on a draw. Btw, Lara is a Haymon fighter too.

Last edited by Weebler I; 12-07-2013 at 10:54 PM.
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