Is there such thing as a Lucky Punch?

[i_am_a_champ]

If you're going to vote that there are such thing as Lucky punches, but Marquez was not lucky...then explain how it wasnt lucky, and show an example of what a lucky punch is....thats the point of this thread!

Do you believe in such a thing as a "Lucky Punch?" or does it just happen to be a PERFECT punch? If you believe in Luck, how do you define it and what are some examples? If you don't believe in Luck, then tell me why via solid reasoning or analysis of one of the fights I consider luck mentioned later on in this thread.

I for one, believe in Luck...and there is a reason they call it the Theater of the Unexpected....Luck is when preparation & opportunity meet


I believe that all the events that come together that result in a KO that one would consider shocking, involves a degree of luck...the circumstances involved at a particular moment are to perfect for me to believe otherwise.

If a fighter is pretty much winning the fight to a point where its the decisions they make that will dictate the outcome, and they get KO'd one could argue it was a product of luck (among other things). Here me out. Manny Pacquiao was doing decent in that fight, he was moving a lot more, he was on his feet, his left found a nice cozy home on Marquez's face. I for one, thought he was controlling that majority of the fight (save the KD which ill talk about in a second) ....Pacquiao was the faster fighter, he was the one countering Marquez, feinting, drawing him in and landing far more accurately than Marquez. Round 6, Pacquiao got reckless, walked in a straight line hands completely down, and looked to be leading with a weak jab, right into Marquez....Being a southpaw, and Marquez Orthodox, in a situation like this, an overhand right is textbook..I believe any boxer who knows the basics would know to throw that punch at that particular moment....and Marquez threw that punch, it connected, and KO'd Pacman....now comparing this to the first Knockdown of the fight, Marquez threw a jab, feinted to the body..which brought Pacmans hands down, and Marquez threw a perfect overhand right......that was not luck, that was pure boxing skill....the same punch that finished Pacman in the 6th did not look like that, Marquez was LUCKY that Pacquaio was reckless, and created the perfect opportunity that JMM exploited. Marquez didnt set up any traps, didnt feint Pac into coming forward, didn't do anything to set that punch up..he got lucky that the opportunity presented itself.

Now i am not trying to discredit Marquez's victory...he prepared for this fight (PEDs or not), and his power and timing assisted in his victory...but I still think Marquez was lucky and fortunate the event unfolded as they do to allow him to throw a punch that ended the fight. Here are some examples of what I consider Lucky punches/Lucky KO's....its a thin line to argue the existence of a lucky punch, due to the fact these fighters prepare and train there whole lives ...but the opportunities and the time they present themselves..is an uncontrollable event that results in a KO (IMO) ..therefore I consider it luck.

Julian Jackson vs Herol Graham - VERY similar to the way Marquez/Pacquiao ended.... Graham (Southpaw) was leading on the scorecards, and was rushing in with a lead left, he dropped his guard and Jackson threw a mean overhand right that connected and KO'd him...I consider this luck, Graham beating up on Jackson, leading on the scorecards...and he got careless, and a combination of luck and Grahams mistake...Jackson was able to get the Knockout...

John Tate vs Mike Weaver - Tate was up 12 rounds going into the 15th, he was getting beat hard...out of nowhere, Weaver knocks Tate out COLD ...a fighter who most people figured had no chance at this point, won with a short left hook... All Tate had to do was cruise to a victory, but Weaver was lucky enough that Tate decided to stand in close with his guard down.

Arturo Gatti vs Gabriel Ruelas - Gatti was getting brutalized , especially round 5, then in Round 6 ... Ruelas stupidly kept moving forward, got hit with two big body shots, followed by a left hook that connected, a right cross that connected... at this point Ruelas should have backed up or at least kept his hands up, he had plenty of time these werent quick hits, they were slow and powerful.....but after that right hand connected, Gatti threw the same left hook he did before and knocked Ruelas out cold...i consider this luck because Gatti would never have been able to do that if it were not for Ruelas mistake, i mean those situations had to be perfect for a KO to happen..i.e luck

George Foreman vs Michael Moorer - Ultimate lucky punch IMO, Foreman 46 years old, slow as a mofo, getting beat and was able to KO Moorer....this fight is infamous shouldn't have to describe why i think this is luck.

Roy Jones Jr vs Antonio Tarver II - Only two rounds, but Jones clearly wont hat first round, second round, Jones threw a crappy combination and Tarver threw a hail mary left and BAM knocked down Jones...the moment that occurred everything had to be exactly right, and was a product of circumstance...i.e. luck.




Knockouts that I dont consider luck for comparison purposes:

Shane Mosley vs Ricardo Mayorga
Tommy Hearns vs Roberto Duran
Rocky Marciano vs Jersey Joe Walcott
Manny Pacquiao vs Ricky Hatton

Right at the end of round 5 Manny connects a good straight left hand by feinting and them comming in with the straight left. It got JMM straight on the face.

He tried that again just before the knock out. Check it out if you can.

A fighter like JMM would have made a mental note of that thats why he reacted the way he did by timing , slipping and throwing the overhand right.

The argument for luck can be that manny came in fast. But whose to say that JMM was not aware of the fact that manny would be comming in fast and committed with his movement thus making it a bigger punch upon impact.


It was timed well and executed perfectly.

[fitefan]

Right at the end of round 5 Manny connects a good straight left hand by feinting and them comming in with the straight left. It got JMM straight on the face.

He tried that again just before the knock out. Check it out if you can.

A fighter like JMM would have made a mental note of that thats why he reacted the way he did by timing , slipping and throwing the overhand right.

The argument for luck can be that manny came in fast. But whose to say that JMM was not aware of the fact that manny would be comming in fast and committed with his movement thus making it a bigger punch upon impact.


It was timed well and executed perfectly.

jmm was smarter than pac just like he always has been. it's why a fighter who's slower, weaker, and not as athletic can hang with the superior athlete

well put, dude

[Nekronicle]

Right at the end of round 5 Manny connects a good straight left hand by feinting and them comming in with the straight left. It got JMM straight on the face.

He tried that again just before the knock out. Check it out if you can.

A fighter like JMM would have made a mental note of that thats why he reacted the way he did by timing , slipping and throwing the overhand right.

The argument for luck can be that manny came in fast. But whose to say that JMM was not aware of the fact that manny would be comming in fast and committed with his movement thus making it a bigger punch upon impact.


It was timed well and executed perfectly.

jmm was smarter than pac just like he always has been. it's why a fighter who's slower, weaker, and not as athletic can hang with the superior athlete

well put, dude

JMM attempted that KO punch at the 10 second mark when he was like a mile away, if he was as intelligent and masterful as you are saying, why did he do that?? He attempted the EXACT same punch 10 seconds later, as Pacquiao was rushing in and he walked right into his face. JMM has never done anything like that before...hence the reason why it is lucky.

"I never thought that Juan could knock out Pacquiao. Juan is not a [power puncher]. He is a very precise fighter, and hits hard but not violently. He gets you with three shots in a row at the tip of the chin and he hurts you, but not like [what happened with the punch that hit Pacquiao]. What happened was a phenomenon," - Nacho Bernstein

[i_am_a_champ]

Just come out and say it that you think that JMM punch was a lucky punch

[Nekronicle]

Just come out and say it that you think that JMM punch was a lucky punch

lol, my entire first post explains in specific detail why I believe it is was a lucky punch....defining what i believe a lucky punch to be, analyzing the KO in detail from my POV, and citing examples of other fights where I consider a KO lucky (specifically Julian Jackson vs Herol Graham...which is extremely simliar to how the Pac/Marquez fight ended, and Tate vs Weaver), as well as examples of fights with KOs that i dont feel are lucky.

I provided a definition, an analysis, examples of similar fights, and examples of what i consider non-lucky KOs..... My opinion is pretty clear cut.

[Nekronicle]

Ah, additionally... after closer observation, Pacquiao also tripped over Marquez's foot, literally sending him falling into Marquez's fist...yet another variable in this complex set circumstances mi using to support my opinion on luck having a lot to do with the outcome of this fight.

[mannyman]

There is no such thing as a lucky punch. Luck by definition means something was unintended and every punch in boxing is intended.

In Marquez's case the punch was based on timing and skill. He's obviously detected Pac was open to the counter right which he was shown practicing in sparring. He dropped Pac twice with a left feint to the body and overhand-ish right and finally with a counter punch from hell which he detonated off Pacs dome. If you think lucky punches exist then you're deluded.

[i_am_a_champ]

lol, my entire first post explains in specific detail why I believe it is was a lucky punch....defining what i believe a lucky punch to be, analyzing the KO in detail from my POV, and citing examples of other fights where I consider a KO lucky (specifically Julian Jackson vs Herol Graham...which is extremely simliar to how the Pac/Marquez fight ended, and Tate vs Weaver), as well as examples of fights with KOs that i dont feel are lucky.

I provided a definition, an analysis, examples of similar fights, and examples of what i consider non-lucky KOs..... My opinion is pretty clear cut.

Your explanation of luck is summed up as an opportunity that presented it self... as stated here by you

Marquez was LUCKY that Pacquaio was reckless, and created the perfect opportunity that JMM exploited

What has that got to do with a punch being lucky?

Your interpretation of the events that occured are confusing. If Manny came in reckless and JMM took advantage , isnt that a display of superior boxing skill? Where is the luck in it?


Also if you look at the way manny came in , it was like this:

Feint, jab , move forward.

1) JMM did not react to the feint ( cos he fell for it the previous round )
2) JMM knew a jab was comming so he timed the jab and slipped to the side
3) At the same time he lunged his body weight forward and threw the over hand right with excellent precision and good leverage ( which was met head on with mannys forward momentum. Something JMM would have most likely known. He wud have known it wud end up as a huge hit )


You are trying to dismiss subtleties of JMMs skill by saying any old dude who puts gloves on could have done the same.

The punch JMM threw was not lucky. There was no luck involved. You are attempting to downsize JMMs boxing skill by saying that Manny presented him with an opportunity and JMM got lucky. That is the basis of your argument.

It has nothing to do with lucky punches.

Had manny not come in the way he did maybe he would not have been knocked out? maybe.

That still doesnt take away the fact the JMM had to position him self, time the feints, time the jab, move his feet in perfect co ordination, remain in balance and at the same time throw a perfect over hand right with his whole weight behind it, hit accurately and proceed. If u notice, JMM threw a left hook straight after he threw the over hand right. He was ready to unload.

It took him some skill. Where was the luck?

Luck that Manny came in the way he did? You havent read my post if u still believe this.


Deal with it dude Manny as great as he is got knocked out by a skillfull counter attack. Plain and simple brother

[Nekronicle]

There is no such thing as a lucky punch. Luck by definition means something was unintended and every punch in boxing is intended.

In Marquez's case the punch was based on timing and skill. He's obviously detected Pac was open to the counter right which he was shown practicing in sparring. He dropped Pac twice with a left feint to the body and overhand-ish right and finally with a counter punch from hell which he detonated off Pacs dome. If you think lucky punches exist then you're deluded.

I was gonna just accept your reasoning, but the fact you appear to be incapable of accepting anyone elses opinion, ill form a rebuttal!

What did Marquez counter in that final second? Becuase what I saw was Pacquiao rushing forward feinting with his right, realizing JMM was not taking the bait, he bailed, and before he was able to keep his left hand next to his chin his foot locked agaisnt JMM's, causing Pac's head to literally freefall into JMM's fist, resulting in a KO. The first KD, was masterful skill, which i mentioned in my original post... the KO however was not. And a fighter can practice the punch all he wants, even Nach was suprised and did not think JMM could KO Pac..and like ive said a few times in this thread, JMM attempted the overhand right at teh 10 second mark, while he was ridiculously far from Pacman, almost falling, how are you going to explain that, then reason the KO happened because of ring intelligence....

[i_am_a_champ]

I was gonna just accept your reasoning, but the fact you appear to be incapable of accepting anyone elses opinion, ill form a rebuttal!

What did Marquez counter in that final second? Becuase what I saw was Pacquiao rushing forward feinting with his right, realizing JMM was not taking the bait, he bailed, and before he was able to keep his left hand next to his chin his foot locked agaisnt JMM's, causing Pac's head to literally freefall into JMM's fist, resulting in a KO. The first KD, was masterful skill, which i mentioned in my original post... the KO however was not. And a fighter can practice the punch all he wants, even Nach was suprised and did not think JMM could KO Pac..and like ive said a few times in this thread, JMM attempted the overhand right at teh 10 second mark, while he was ridiculously far from Pacman, almost falling, how are you going to explain that, then reason the KO happened because of ring intelligence....

p1ss off