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#1
Old 12-06-2012, 06:09 PM
Oh you out son
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Default Pacquiao-Marquez - Betting Advice.

Yo peeps,

I am strongly thinking about placing a considerable bet of like $500 for this fight. Currently Marquez by decision is at 4.4. So if i win, i would get $2200.

My thinking:

Team Pac has basically stated they don't think they will win by decision if its close, I think this could have some truth. If it is like the 3rd fight I am thinking Marquez will get the decision. I don't think Pac can finish Marquez, so a decision seems most likely. I also think it's possible that Marquez beats Pac even more convincingly than the 3rd fight, he looks really strong, and sharp, Pac not so much.

My hesitations:

If Mayweather is planning to fight Pac next year, I don't see how they can let Pac lose to Marquez, especially after his "loss" to Bradley. So maybe another close decision will go to Pac.

What do you guys think, I am open to all advice.
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#2
Old 12-06-2012, 06:10 PM
Walt Liquor
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i have marquez at +230, where the fuk r your odds from?
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#3
Old 12-06-2012, 06:10 PM
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There's really no way to break this down bro.
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#4
Old 12-06-2012, 06:11 PM
Walt Liquor
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r u really gonna listen to peeps on here?

i'll place my bet after weighin
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#5
Old 12-06-2012, 06:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Walt Liquor View Post
i have marquez at +230, where the fuk r your odds from?
I believe he is running a parlay, Marquez by decision so he would get better odds for that.


For the matter at hand it is a pretty good bet if JMM is to win it probably will be a decision, if you can afford to lose $500 it is a reasonable risk worth taking. I personally am not laying money at the book because just to much can go wrong and I don't feel like playing a 50/50 hunch (although 50/50 is pretty good for 4 to 1), but I will make some bets at the party I attend. Good luck
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#6
Old 12-06-2012, 06:26 PM
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Your concerns are valid. A Pacquiao win looks more valuable to Arum at this point in time, given the contract extension.

Despite that, I still think Marquez looks like good value at current prices.
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#7
Old 12-06-2012, 06:33 PM
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4:1 are damn good odds considering these 2 are basically even after 36 rounds. A general rule of thumb I use is never bet big on the dog. If you're getting good odds why risk extra cash. But if you feel strongly about it go for it. I'm thinking on dropping $20 on Molina over Khan. Those are 8:1 odds!
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#8
Old 12-06-2012, 06:38 PM
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I personally wouldnt bet anything big on this fight. Wayyyyyyyyy too many factors. Will the judges side with Marquez in a close one knowing everyone has complained for YEARS about them being corrupt in giving the fights to Manny? Will they give the nod to Pac in continued hopes of not ruining the never gonna happen superfight with Mayweather (see "bought by uncle bob")? What about age? Both guys are at the point where injury and age could catch up with them in this fight in a bad way. Im staying the hell away from betting on this one. That said, if I were forced to bet, I would take Marquez straight up to win. That is what I think is the most likely outcome if the judging were fair.
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#9
Old 12-06-2012, 07:04 PM
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Not a bad bet....but who knows the judges agenda for this match?
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#10
Old 12-06-2012, 07:08 PM
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Arum is talking about Bradley vs Marquez for may 4th & Pacquaio vs Rios for April 20th.

I really have no idea, I'll probably put a small amount on the draw and Marquez win and hope for the best. Certainly not a fight I'd be comfortable with betting big on.
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