It's a tough pick, imo.
Dawson has a size and reach advantage.
He also might enjoy a small advantage in athleticism. Maybe hand speed as well?
The weight deal could reverse both of these, but until the fight happens we won't know. So for now I'll take Chad at his word.
I see their skills as pretty much even?
To me Ward's biggest advantage is his brains. Ward seems to me to have most if not all the smarts of a 40+ y/o B-Hop running a 28 y/o machine.
His other advantage is mental toughness. It's unlikely that Andre will start coming apart if things aren't going his way. Chad can be frustrated.
But skills being equal, if Bad Chad is focused and healthy, and just too big and strong and fast, then he's just too big/strong/fast. Andre's smarts wont save him.
I think they will though.
AW by SD or UD.