Cotto stops him before 12. Thats my prediction.
Either: 1. He tears that eye up and it begins to bleed in 4 or 5 and badly opens until round 8 or 9 when they stop it, or 2. Cottos effective boxing and body punches begin to slow down Margarito; Cotto begins picking his spots around round 5, Margarito's defense is **** by round 7 as he gets reckless and tagged over and over again, hurt by round 9 or 10, and stopped in 10 or 11.
I know most people expect Cotto to box and try to cruise to a UD, but when someone has true passion, true anger, amazing things happen. Unlike his last few fights, Cotto truly wants to hurt Margarito and he will dig in because of that reason.
But for the sake of not feeling like an idiot, it is very likely Cotto will box and popshot his way to a decision and avoid trying to put punches together to hurt Margarito.
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