Obviously experience plays a part. Lotsa **** will play a part doe. If GGG doesn't KO Canelo I think the judges will play a part by GGG needing to win 9 or 10 rounds to win 7-5 on the cards. I'm firmly on the Canelo side largely for that reason.
What you see is what you get. They are both excellent but GGG is great in my opinion while Canelo is excellent but not yet great. Canelo has had more pro fights but GGG has had almost 400 amateur fights. GGG KOed Murray who is a better fighter than the three fighters you put up to show his best wins. Murray is his best win and it's a very good win. Experience plays a part in any fight and they both have good experience. GGG is a 4 to 1 betting favorite for a reason. The reason is he is the best or certainly one of the best fighters in the world and better than the very good Canelo. Canelo lost to Mayweather when he was younger and he had two close fights with Trout and Lara. GGG doesn't know what a close fight is. He knocks everybody out and seldom loses even a single round.
The only problem with Canelo's resume is he got all those great fighters late, when they where shop worn. Other than that, great ****ing resume for a 25year old.
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