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Fight analysis: 4 boxers who outfought Mayweather, Jr (p 1)
November 28, 9:27 PMHouston Boxing ExaminerMarv Dumon
Continuing Coverage:
Intro: Many boxing analysts and gamblers initially peg Floyd Mayweather, Jr (40-0) as a slight betting favorite over WBO welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao (50-3-2). These odds are sensible, and probably correct. It's tough to argue with an omnipotent marketplace.
However, we explore four boxers that have given Mayweather, Jr ( either temporary or sustained ) problems in the ring. There are several potential reasons for avoiding the welterweights in his division. Floyd encountered problems with these four boxers, and those avoided welterweights would exacerbate Floyd's tactical risks. These lessons can be leveraged by Freddie Roach and Manny Pacquiao, and lay the foundation for a strategic war plan.
Tale of the Tape: [ SLIDESHOW: Floyd's and Manny's Last 10 Fights >> ]
Age: Manny: 31 Floyd: 33 ( By fight night )
[ No advantage for either fighter. Floyd is a fresher fighter. Manny has been more active. ]
CLICK >> Manny Pacquiao (Photo: n/a)
Height: Manny: 5' 6.5" Floyd: 5' 8"
[ Slight advantage for Mayweather, Jr. Manny can somewhat negate this advantage by fighting low, as well as, by bobbing and weaving which could expose Floyd's body to pugilistic explosions. ]
Reach: Manny: 67" Floyd: 72"
[ Herein lies Manny's biggest disadvantage - he gives up a 5 inch reach against a fighter with the best jab in the sport, both in quickness and accuracy. This factors into Floyd as an early betting favorite. ]
Official Weigh-in: Manny: 145 lbs (est) Floyd: 147 lbs (est)
[ Undoubtedly, the weight limit is a main negotiating point between both camps. Top Rank's Bob Arum will fight for 145 lbs, while Richard Schaefer of Golden Boy Promotions will aim for a full 147 lb welterweight weight limit. This is a big variable in the fight. Floyd officially weighed in against Juan Manuel Marquez at 146 lbs, suggesting that he may be uncomfortable coming in at 145 lbs. ]
Floyd Mayweather, Jr ( Bret Newton - Pound4Pound.com )
Fighting Weight: Manny: 150 lbs (est) Floyd: 157 lbs (est)
[ Size is Manny's second disadvantage. However, the bigger opponent in this case will be just as fast, and just as smart. Floyd can adjust to an opponent's gameplan in real time. While Manny is a master in his own right, Freddie Roach's advice for adjustments during the fight comes in three-minute intervals, at the end of each round. Something Floyd does not have to wait for. This makes Roach's and Pac's initial battleplan going into the fight that much more critical for success. Most likely, they will concoct a Plan A, a Plan B, and a Plan C so that Manny, like Floyd, can also adjust in real time. ]
# 1
2002: Jose Luis Castillo 1
Rounds 5, 6 [ video >> ] Rounds 10 and 11 [ video >> ]
Analysis: In rounds 5 and 6, Mexican lightweight champion Jose Luis Castillo brilliantly lures Mayweather into a physical fight. Castillo played rough, and boxed dirty - holding Mayweather and often hitting him late ( after a referee's break ). A roughed up Mayweather underwent spurts of ineffectiveness, and there were times in which he was simply uncomfortable being inside the ring. However, it must also be noted that this fight took place in 2002 and Floyd has since morphed into a defensive wizard.
In rounds 10 and 11 Floyd was forced to aggressively fight Castillo due to the closer than expected scorecards. Against Manny, Floyd's foremost priority will be to win the early rounds in order to avoid direct engagement with the southpaw dynamo. The Filipino packs a more powerful punch than Castillo. Additionally, Pacquiao's unorthodox style, weaving attack, and blazing speed pose more problems. This dynamic ( the perceived scores entering the final rounds ) is the most critical variable to how the fight plays out in the pound-for-pound "championship rounds."
Comments: If Pacquiao should emerge victorious against Mayweather, and that's an if, the first Castillo fight serves as a shining expose into Floyd's major weakness. He is a fragile fighter with a suspect chin, and he will wear down later in the rounds. "Master" Roach knows this. Floyd will be bigger than Manny - effectively a junior middleweight - but the dynamic Pacquiao also packs explosive power in both fists.
Did Floyd really beat Castillo in the first bout? Officially yes. Unofficially, that is debatable. The statistics are shockingly revealing. Through the first nine rounds, both men were just as accurate with power punches (Castillo, 44% to Mayweather, 43%). However, Castillo landed a whopping 98 power shots out of 228 thrown to Floyd's 37 of 87 power shots. Castillo's higher work rate was effective against Floyd. It was a close call for the three judges. Floyd won a hotly contested decision.
Lesson # 1.1: Floyd will need to make Manny pay for being the more active fighter. That is accomplished through timing Manny when he moves in, with accurate and quick jabs from a safe distance, and counters. Unfortunately for Pacquiao's camp, Floyd is the best fighter in the sport to accomplish all three. If Floyd can do these three things (timing, accurate jabs, and counters) for the first three or four rounds, the fight is over. And Manny will break down by round 8.
Lesson # 1.2: Conversely, Castillo has provided Roach and Pacquiao with a template for putting a serious hurt on Floyd. Manny's power in both hands, combined with a higher work rate, can both wear down the bigger opponent as well as impress judges. The latter will be more critical. Because this fight will go the full 12 rounds. Here, three judges will decide who wins the "Fight of the Century."
Caveat: The Floyd version that fought Marquez is much better and bigger than the Floyd who showed up to fight Castillo.
# 2
2006: Zab Judah
Round 1 [ video >> ] and Round 2 [ video >> ]
Judah's size is very similar to Pacquiao's. Zab stands at 5' 7" tall, with a 22" arm length ( compared to Floyd's 26" arm length ). However, a relatively stationary Judah appeared to have outboxed Mayweather, Jr with jabs. Then-welterweight champion Judah's quick jabs landed on Floyd despite having shorter arms.
Due to the scoring favor the first couple of rounds, Floyd was forced to adjust and fight more aggressively. Unfortunately for Judah, he simple could not keep up with Mayweather's handspeed and skills.
During the second round, Zab caught Floyd with a lightning quick right as Mayweather lunged forward. This should have been scored a knockdown ( which it was not ) since Floyd's gloves grazed the ring. This punch underscores Floyd's vulnerability as a fighter when he attacks. Manny will have opportunities to counter Floyd. However, the flip side is also true. Manny will be vulnerable to Floyd's counters, especially if Manny fully commits on his jabs. Think Erik Morales 1 and the fights with Juan Manuel Marquez.
[ SLIDESHOW: Floyd's and Manny's Last 10 Fights >> ]
Lesson # 2.1:
If Judah could land on this version ( 2006 ) of Floyd, so can Manny. Mayweather is an orthodox right-handed boxer ( with his left as his lead front hand ). He is surprisingly vulnerable to the body when he chooses to have a more offensive stance. However, Mayweather had a pretty squared up shoulder in facing Zab, and used less of a shoulder roll defense. In other words, Floyd was not defensively oriented during the first two rounds. This may, or may not, be the case versus a dangerous southpaw like Manny. Therefore, we should be careful from comparing apples and oranges.
The Judah fight does show that Floyd is hittable, even when backing up. Remember, Judah fought with a 22" arm length ( similar to Manny's 23" ) compared to Floyd's 26". Was this part of a brilliant strategy by the Mayweather camp to draw in Judah - to make him come forward? Possibly. This may have been a trick / ploy from Floyd. By being aggressive himself, he invited Judah's attack so Floyd could outclass him with accurate counters. As Judah grew in ( false ) confidence, Floyd outboxed Judah in the later rounds. Roach and Pacquiao may have used this same strategy against Cotto. Manny pretended to be vulnerable in the first two rounds to invite Cotto forward, and to make Cotto vulnerable by letting the Puerto Rican throw his lead left jabs ( his best punch, along with the left hook to the body ). This allowed Manny to outclass an opened up Cotto, who became susceptible to counters to the body from Manny's left, and to blows to the head from Manny's right hook. [ read Roach's Secret Strategy vs Cotto >> ]
Continued on Page 2
November 28, 9:27 PMHouston Boxing ExaminerMarv Dumon
Continuing Coverage:
Intro: Many boxing analysts and gamblers initially peg Floyd Mayweather, Jr (40-0) as a slight betting favorite over WBO welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao (50-3-2). These odds are sensible, and probably correct. It's tough to argue with an omnipotent marketplace.
However, we explore four boxers that have given Mayweather, Jr ( either temporary or sustained ) problems in the ring. There are several potential reasons for avoiding the welterweights in his division. Floyd encountered problems with these four boxers, and those avoided welterweights would exacerbate Floyd's tactical risks. These lessons can be leveraged by Freddie Roach and Manny Pacquiao, and lay the foundation for a strategic war plan.
Tale of the Tape: [ SLIDESHOW: Floyd's and Manny's Last 10 Fights >> ]
Age: Manny: 31 Floyd: 33 ( By fight night )
[ No advantage for either fighter. Floyd is a fresher fighter. Manny has been more active. ]
CLICK >> Manny Pacquiao (Photo: n/a)
Height: Manny: 5' 6.5" Floyd: 5' 8"
[ Slight advantage for Mayweather, Jr. Manny can somewhat negate this advantage by fighting low, as well as, by bobbing and weaving which could expose Floyd's body to pugilistic explosions. ]
Reach: Manny: 67" Floyd: 72"
[ Herein lies Manny's biggest disadvantage - he gives up a 5 inch reach against a fighter with the best jab in the sport, both in quickness and accuracy. This factors into Floyd as an early betting favorite. ]
Official Weigh-in: Manny: 145 lbs (est) Floyd: 147 lbs (est)
[ Undoubtedly, the weight limit is a main negotiating point between both camps. Top Rank's Bob Arum will fight for 145 lbs, while Richard Schaefer of Golden Boy Promotions will aim for a full 147 lb welterweight weight limit. This is a big variable in the fight. Floyd officially weighed in against Juan Manuel Marquez at 146 lbs, suggesting that he may be uncomfortable coming in at 145 lbs. ]
Floyd Mayweather, Jr ( Bret Newton - Pound4Pound.com )
Fighting Weight: Manny: 150 lbs (est) Floyd: 157 lbs (est)
[ Size is Manny's second disadvantage. However, the bigger opponent in this case will be just as fast, and just as smart. Floyd can adjust to an opponent's gameplan in real time. While Manny is a master in his own right, Freddie Roach's advice for adjustments during the fight comes in three-minute intervals, at the end of each round. Something Floyd does not have to wait for. This makes Roach's and Pac's initial battleplan going into the fight that much more critical for success. Most likely, they will concoct a Plan A, a Plan B, and a Plan C so that Manny, like Floyd, can also adjust in real time. ]
# 1
2002: Jose Luis Castillo 1
Rounds 5, 6 [ video >> ] Rounds 10 and 11 [ video >> ]
Analysis: In rounds 5 and 6, Mexican lightweight champion Jose Luis Castillo brilliantly lures Mayweather into a physical fight. Castillo played rough, and boxed dirty - holding Mayweather and often hitting him late ( after a referee's break ). A roughed up Mayweather underwent spurts of ineffectiveness, and there were times in which he was simply uncomfortable being inside the ring. However, it must also be noted that this fight took place in 2002 and Floyd has since morphed into a defensive wizard.
In rounds 10 and 11 Floyd was forced to aggressively fight Castillo due to the closer than expected scorecards. Against Manny, Floyd's foremost priority will be to win the early rounds in order to avoid direct engagement with the southpaw dynamo. The Filipino packs a more powerful punch than Castillo. Additionally, Pacquiao's unorthodox style, weaving attack, and blazing speed pose more problems. This dynamic ( the perceived scores entering the final rounds ) is the most critical variable to how the fight plays out in the pound-for-pound "championship rounds."
Comments: If Pacquiao should emerge victorious against Mayweather, and that's an if, the first Castillo fight serves as a shining expose into Floyd's major weakness. He is a fragile fighter with a suspect chin, and he will wear down later in the rounds. "Master" Roach knows this. Floyd will be bigger than Manny - effectively a junior middleweight - but the dynamic Pacquiao also packs explosive power in both fists.
Did Floyd really beat Castillo in the first bout? Officially yes. Unofficially, that is debatable. The statistics are shockingly revealing. Through the first nine rounds, both men were just as accurate with power punches (Castillo, 44% to Mayweather, 43%). However, Castillo landed a whopping 98 power shots out of 228 thrown to Floyd's 37 of 87 power shots. Castillo's higher work rate was effective against Floyd. It was a close call for the three judges. Floyd won a hotly contested decision.
Lesson # 1.1: Floyd will need to make Manny pay for being the more active fighter. That is accomplished through timing Manny when he moves in, with accurate and quick jabs from a safe distance, and counters. Unfortunately for Pacquiao's camp, Floyd is the best fighter in the sport to accomplish all three. If Floyd can do these three things (timing, accurate jabs, and counters) for the first three or four rounds, the fight is over. And Manny will break down by round 8.
Lesson # 1.2: Conversely, Castillo has provided Roach and Pacquiao with a template for putting a serious hurt on Floyd. Manny's power in both hands, combined with a higher work rate, can both wear down the bigger opponent as well as impress judges. The latter will be more critical. Because this fight will go the full 12 rounds. Here, three judges will decide who wins the "Fight of the Century."
Caveat: The Floyd version that fought Marquez is much better and bigger than the Floyd who showed up to fight Castillo.
# 2
2006: Zab Judah
Round 1 [ video >> ] and Round 2 [ video >> ]
Judah's size is very similar to Pacquiao's. Zab stands at 5' 7" tall, with a 22" arm length ( compared to Floyd's 26" arm length ). However, a relatively stationary Judah appeared to have outboxed Mayweather, Jr with jabs. Then-welterweight champion Judah's quick jabs landed on Floyd despite having shorter arms.
Due to the scoring favor the first couple of rounds, Floyd was forced to adjust and fight more aggressively. Unfortunately for Judah, he simple could not keep up with Mayweather's handspeed and skills.
During the second round, Zab caught Floyd with a lightning quick right as Mayweather lunged forward. This should have been scored a knockdown ( which it was not ) since Floyd's gloves grazed the ring. This punch underscores Floyd's vulnerability as a fighter when he attacks. Manny will have opportunities to counter Floyd. However, the flip side is also true. Manny will be vulnerable to Floyd's counters, especially if Manny fully commits on his jabs. Think Erik Morales 1 and the fights with Juan Manuel Marquez.
[ SLIDESHOW: Floyd's and Manny's Last 10 Fights >> ]
Lesson # 2.1:
If Judah could land on this version ( 2006 ) of Floyd, so can Manny. Mayweather is an orthodox right-handed boxer ( with his left as his lead front hand ). He is surprisingly vulnerable to the body when he chooses to have a more offensive stance. However, Mayweather had a pretty squared up shoulder in facing Zab, and used less of a shoulder roll defense. In other words, Floyd was not defensively oriented during the first two rounds. This may, or may not, be the case versus a dangerous southpaw like Manny. Therefore, we should be careful from comparing apples and oranges.
The Judah fight does show that Floyd is hittable, even when backing up. Remember, Judah fought with a 22" arm length ( similar to Manny's 23" ) compared to Floyd's 26". Was this part of a brilliant strategy by the Mayweather camp to draw in Judah - to make him come forward? Possibly. This may have been a trick / ploy from Floyd. By being aggressive himself, he invited Judah's attack so Floyd could outclass him with accurate counters. As Judah grew in ( false ) confidence, Floyd outboxed Judah in the later rounds. Roach and Pacquiao may have used this same strategy against Cotto. Manny pretended to be vulnerable in the first two rounds to invite Cotto forward, and to make Cotto vulnerable by letting the Puerto Rican throw his lead left jabs ( his best punch, along with the left hook to the body ). This allowed Manny to outclass an opened up Cotto, who became susceptible to counters to the body from Manny's left, and to blows to the head from Manny's right hook. [ read Roach's Secret Strategy vs Cotto >> ]
Continued on Page 2
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