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Some of you know me as Miguel Cotto's most rabid supporters and, if you were on these boards back when Cotto-Margarito 2 happened, might even remember me making the "WAR COTTO! EXPRESS" thread just to stir up some PR-Mexican rivalry. I always try to be objective, love the sport, and thoroughly enjoy Saturday night fights.
From March to June, there are four major fights that have had people talking and they have not been that hard to predict: Canelo-Angulo, Pac-Bradley 2, May-Maidana, Cotto-Martínez. Now mind you, I've been fairly accurate in the first two, and I expect Mayweather to stop Maidana in the 11th. I don't usually make an outright prediction unless I'm very positive about the outcome. This is not to say I haven't made horrible ones before, but when I predict, I'm confident.
Looking ahead to June, we've got a fight that, unlike the previous three, have a lot of interesting factors to consider. It was the only fight out of all of them that I couldn't settle into one fighter and feel good about. I wanted to say Cotto, because of his recent competition, but wanted to pick Sergio because of his weight. Then I'd go back to Cotto because Sergio is old, but then I'd flip flop and pick Sergio because of his stamina. What culminated was me sitting down and making a list of attributes of both fighters; trying to determine, or perhaps convince myself, whether Cotto had much of a chance against Sergio.
What I found was the following...whether this will convince you that Sergio has a better chance, or Cotto has a better chance, I do not know. I just hope it gives you a better idea of why this fight is so intriguing to me.
COTTO
Age: 33
Height: 5'7
Reach: 67"
Years as a pro: 13 years
Total rounds: 196
Fights best during: First half
Best opponent win: Shane Mosley
Difficult/Physically Taxing fights: Torres, Clottey, Marg, Pac
Inactivity going in: 8 months
Best punch: Jab, Left Hook (upstairs and down stairs)
Average Opponent Connect % (last three): 17%Jabs landed/35%PowerPunches landed
Average Connect % for Cotto (last three): 23%Jabs/37%Power punches
Best opponent faced: Floyd Mayweather, Manny Pacquiao
Sergio Martínez
Age: 39
Height: 5'10
Reach: 75"
Years as a pro: 17 years
Total rounds: 392 rounds
Fights best during: First four and Last four of most 12 rounders
Best opponent win: Kelly Pavlik
Difficult/Taxing fights: Paul Williams 1, Martin Murray
Inactivity going in: 13 months
Best punch: Southpaw jab, Straight left (upstairs and downstairs)
Average Opponent Connect % (last three): 23%Jabs/42%Powerpunches
Average Connect % for Sergio (last three): 26%Jabs/42% Powerpunches
Best opponent faced: Kelly Pavlik, Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr.
Footnotes/Summary:
-Cotto has a 6 year advantage, though that point may be moot considering how many wars he has been in. It depends on what you consider "damaged".
-Sergio has a whopping 10" reach advantage over Cotto(!)
-Cotto has been known to have a greater connect percentage when fighting southpaws.
-Martínez has gone down in his last three fights and is highly susceptible to knockdowns, however much like Juan Manuel Márquez, he has shown great recovery skills
-When has Cotto been in a one-sided loss? Pacquiao, Mayweather (more or less), Trout (clearly outboxed). When has Martínez been in a one-sided loss? You'd probably have to dig all the way back to his loss to Margarito way back when they were still very young.
-Martínez has 196 more rounds on his career than Cotto, but perhaps Cotto is more damaged.
-Martínez has looked more and more vulnerable in his last fights, he is coming off of a long layoff, and has been known to have injuries, and that's without considering the surprise factor of whether or not age will be a hindrance.
-Cotto has one of the best jabs in boxing. Martínez fights with his hands down.
Prediction:
An entertaining, riveting, back and forth fight. A lot of heavy leather will be landed as both are prone to power punches (Cotto especially). Cotto will dig to the body but it will not be something Sergio hasn't felt before. Cotto is a better fighter than Chávez and will be able to establish his jab and exchange successfully, though a TKO stoppage is not outside the realm of possibility for Sergio. Sergio will not KO Cotto like Williams and Cotto WILL knock Martínez down at least once. Expect Sergio to power surge in the final 2 rounds to take over in championship rounds as an over exerted Cotto tries to keep up with Sergio's activity and attack pattern. Drama down the stretch as Martínez tries to close the show with Cotto on the backfoot potshotting.
Martínez UD in an entertaining affair at Madison Square Garden.
**I wanted to also get fight night weights as they play critical roles in a fight but they are not that easily obtainable. In addition to that, Cotto and Sergio hardly ever give HBO unofficial figh night weights.
I hope you all enjoyed reading that. My two cents.
From March to June, there are four major fights that have had people talking and they have not been that hard to predict: Canelo-Angulo, Pac-Bradley 2, May-Maidana, Cotto-Martínez. Now mind you, I've been fairly accurate in the first two, and I expect Mayweather to stop Maidana in the 11th. I don't usually make an outright prediction unless I'm very positive about the outcome. This is not to say I haven't made horrible ones before, but when I predict, I'm confident.
Looking ahead to June, we've got a fight that, unlike the previous three, have a lot of interesting factors to consider. It was the only fight out of all of them that I couldn't settle into one fighter and feel good about. I wanted to say Cotto, because of his recent competition, but wanted to pick Sergio because of his weight. Then I'd go back to Cotto because Sergio is old, but then I'd flip flop and pick Sergio because of his stamina. What culminated was me sitting down and making a list of attributes of both fighters; trying to determine, or perhaps convince myself, whether Cotto had much of a chance against Sergio.
What I found was the following...whether this will convince you that Sergio has a better chance, or Cotto has a better chance, I do not know. I just hope it gives you a better idea of why this fight is so intriguing to me.
COTTO
Age: 33
Height: 5'7
Reach: 67"
Years as a pro: 13 years
Total rounds: 196
Fights best during: First half
Best opponent win: Shane Mosley
Difficult/Physically Taxing fights: Torres, Clottey, Marg, Pac
Inactivity going in: 8 months
Best punch: Jab, Left Hook (upstairs and down stairs)
Average Opponent Connect % (last three): 17%Jabs landed/35%PowerPunches landed
Average Connect % for Cotto (last three): 23%Jabs/37%Power punches
Best opponent faced: Floyd Mayweather, Manny Pacquiao
Sergio Martínez
Age: 39
Height: 5'10
Reach: 75"
Years as a pro: 17 years
Total rounds: 392 rounds
Fights best during: First four and Last four of most 12 rounders
Best opponent win: Kelly Pavlik
Difficult/Taxing fights: Paul Williams 1, Martin Murray
Inactivity going in: 13 months
Best punch: Southpaw jab, Straight left (upstairs and downstairs)
Average Opponent Connect % (last three): 23%Jabs/42%Powerpunches
Average Connect % for Sergio (last three): 26%Jabs/42% Powerpunches
Best opponent faced: Kelly Pavlik, Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr.
Footnotes/Summary:
-Cotto has a 6 year advantage, though that point may be moot considering how many wars he has been in. It depends on what you consider "damaged".
-Sergio has a whopping 10" reach advantage over Cotto(!)
-Cotto has been known to have a greater connect percentage when fighting southpaws.
-Martínez has gone down in his last three fights and is highly susceptible to knockdowns, however much like Juan Manuel Márquez, he has shown great recovery skills
-When has Cotto been in a one-sided loss? Pacquiao, Mayweather (more or less), Trout (clearly outboxed). When has Martínez been in a one-sided loss? You'd probably have to dig all the way back to his loss to Margarito way back when they were still very young.
-Martínez has 196 more rounds on his career than Cotto, but perhaps Cotto is more damaged.
-Martínez has looked more and more vulnerable in his last fights, he is coming off of a long layoff, and has been known to have injuries, and that's without considering the surprise factor of whether or not age will be a hindrance.
-Cotto has one of the best jabs in boxing. Martínez fights with his hands down.
Prediction:
An entertaining, riveting, back and forth fight. A lot of heavy leather will be landed as both are prone to power punches (Cotto especially). Cotto will dig to the body but it will not be something Sergio hasn't felt before. Cotto is a better fighter than Chávez and will be able to establish his jab and exchange successfully, though a TKO stoppage is not outside the realm of possibility for Sergio. Sergio will not KO Cotto like Williams and Cotto WILL knock Martínez down at least once. Expect Sergio to power surge in the final 2 rounds to take over in championship rounds as an over exerted Cotto tries to keep up with Sergio's activity and attack pattern. Drama down the stretch as Martínez tries to close the show with Cotto on the backfoot potshotting.
Martínez UD in an entertaining affair at Madison Square Garden.
**I wanted to also get fight night weights as they play critical roles in a fight but they are not that easily obtainable. In addition to that, Cotto and Sergio hardly ever give HBO unofficial figh night weights.
I hope you all enjoyed reading that. My two cents.
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