I would go with Bute by decision.
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Kelly Pavlik Might Face Lucian Bute
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This fight with Ward falling through is probably the best thing for Pavlik. The speed difference is just too large.
I think the outcome of a Bute-Pavlik fight would depend on Bute's mindset. I can't imagine he gained much confidence from his last fight. Abraham-Pavlik sounds like the best match up. That has the potential to be a real slugfest.
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