Nwahs_!!, yer opinion on Blackstone

[Nwahs !!]

damn! how'd you learn to analyze **** like this? someone mentor you awhile back?

No, I learned everything I know on my own. The thing about the stock market, is that most people including experts dont know what they are talking about. The only man on TV with an idea of what he is talking about is Jim Cramer.

Id recommend you pick up his books.

If you really want to get down into the balance sheet analysis side of investing, Id recommend you pick up The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham.

Personally, I base most of my investing on ideas. I have a knack for spotting good ideas ahead of the market, and with those plays, I usually ignore the fundamentals because a good idea can overcome any amount of adversity.

I made a killing on Apple when they came out with the iPOD, same thing with Sony when they came out with the PSP. I made a killing off of Google when they went public. I practically begged everyone I knew to dump everything they had into Google.

I only play those kinds of investments with about half of my portfolio though, the other half I invest very conservatively and with lots and lots of research.

[Nwahs !!]

do you really think rate cuts are going to bail out the banking industry? just about everyone who qualifies for these good rates already got them a few years ago.

but what you're saying is wait til the banking industry starts to show a realistic glimmer of hope, right?

Well the problem right now, is the rate that the Banks are paying interest on money, and the rate at which they are lending out money is negative.

Its like this.

The bank usually pays out interest rates according to what the fed has set, but they lend out money at a different rate.

For example:

Lets say the fed sets rates at 10%, but the bank can only lend money at 9%, then the bank is losing 1% of its money when it lends.

Now lets say they fed sets rates at 2%, but the bank is lending out at 5%, then they are making a 3% profit on their loans.

Currently, they banks are paying out more money in interest than they are taking in on loans.

As soon as the fed decides to cut rates, they will once again be able to take in more than they are giving out.

That is the genesis of the home lending crisis that is going on right now. The banks are taking in less money on the loans then they are paying out in interest.

[Nwahs !!]

The fact that many people have a low interest rate loan, that they got when rates where low is part of the reason that the banks are in such a hard place. They are having a hell of a time keeping up with their interest payments as the rates go up, but at the same time, they are not earning any extra money because so many people have fixed rate loans.

[Nwahs !!]

do you really think rate cuts are going to bail out the banking industry? just about everyone who qualifies for these good rates already got them a few years ago.

but what you're saying is wait til the banking industry starts to show a realistic glimmer of hope, right?

Yes, wait till the banking industry shows more than a glimmer of hope before buying into this company.

[Spare Moody]

No, I learned everything I know on my own. The thing about the stock market, is that most people including experts dont know what they are talking about. The only man on TV with an idea of what he is talking about is Jim Cramer.

Id recommend you pick up his books.

If you really want to get down into the balance sheet analysis side of investing, Id recommend you pick up The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham.

Personally, I base most of my investing on ideas. I have a knack for spotting good ideas ahead of the market, and with those plays, I usually ignore the fundamentals because a good idea can overcome any amount of adversity.

I made a killing on Apple when they came out with the iPOD, same thing with Sony when they came out with the PSP. I made a killing off of Google when they went public. I practically begged everyone I knew to dump everything they had into Google.

I only play those kinds of investments with about half of my portfolio though, the other half I invest very conservatively and with lots and lots of research.

that's good. it sounds like you've got a definite gameplan/method in this and you stick to yer guns. i was askin because i wanted to compare your learning experience with mine. i, too, just did it on my own but wasn't analytical for ****. probably cause i was just playin around a good $20K with the intention of simply diversifying my assets while makin a few bucks on return. yer actually makin a living so i can understand the time you put in your decisions.

after nukin out my stocks this summer, i think i probably averaged about a 5% gain on everything i had invested in about 12 years ago. yay. when i'm able to start showing $$$ again i'm definetely gonna take these more technical methods up. i've always been afraid of math (i never even passed high school algebra) yet i made the last 10 years of a living as a financial advisor so anything's possible

[BrooklynBomber]

Well the problem right now, is the rate that the Banks are paying interest on money, and the rate at which they are lending out money is negative.

Its like this.

The bank usually pays out interest rates according to what the fed has set, but they lend out money at a different rate.

For example:

Lets say the fed sets rates at 10%, but the bank can only lend money at 9%, then the bank is losing 1% of its money when it lends.

Now lets say they fed sets rates at 2%, but the bank is lending out at 5%, then they are making a 3% profit on their loans.

Currently, they banks are paying out more money in interest than they are taking in on loans.

As soon as the fed decides to cut rates, they will once again be able to take in more than they are giving out.

That is the genesis of the home lending crisis that is going on right now. The banks are taking in less money on the loans then they are paying out in interest.

Very interesting.
Although I am not in investing, but this is some very interesting information here.

[BrooklynBomber]

So, and basically the government does not want to cut the percent rate because of the inflation as I understand?

[RAESAAD]

Good thread......

[Spare Moody]

The fact that many people have a low interest rate loan, that they got when rates where low is part of the reason that the banks are in such a hard place. They are having a hell of a time keeping up with their interest payments as the rates go up, but at the same time, they are not earning any extra money because so many people have fixed rate loans.

there's still a good amount of people in ARMs & neg-ams though. the problem is getting THESE people into the fixed rates to keep everything stimulated as you're indicating before they get into trouble. but once (and IF) that happens then we're gonna run out of loans to create unless buying activity picks up....

[Nwahs !!]

that's good. it sounds like you've got a definite gameplan/method in this and you stick to yer guns. i was askin because i wanted to compare your learning experience with mine. i, too, just did it on my own but wasn't analytical for ****. probably cause i was just playin around a good $20K with the intention of simply diversifying my assets while makin a few bucks on return. yer actually makin a living so i can understand the time you put in your decisions.

after nukin out my stocks this summer, i think i probably averaged about a 5% gain on everything i had invested in about 12 years ago. yay. when i'm able to start showing $$$ again i'm definetely gonna take these more technical methods up. i've always been afraid of math (i never even passed high school algebra) yet i made the last 10 years of a living as a financial advisor so anything's possible

There isn't really much math involved, nothing that your average 5th grader wouldn't understand.

The thing that most people find difficult about the stock market is the fact that it is driven by emotion much of the time. Many people see something going down and they get scared and sell, or they see something going up, so they buy, only to find out that they just bought at the top, and it is going to take a huge plunge.

Its really counter intuitive. You want to sell into strength and buy into weakness. You are always going to kick yourself saying, "if only I held onto that stock just a little bit longer", but selling into strength is the right thing to do, as is averaging down into weakness.

When I am talking about strength and weakness, I am not talking about the company itself, but the sentiment of the investors. Often times, they will panic and bid down a stock to unbelievably low prices without any rime or reason.

This is what really scares people, they see the stock going down, and dont know why, so they sell and lose money, when in reality if the stock is taking a dump for no reason at all, its time to back up the truck and grab all you can.

Its kinda like fighting in the pocket, everyone is scared to try it, but once they do, nothing bad can happen to you (thats not completely true, but you get my point).

I see many people that are fanancially smart, completely dumb founded by the market.

I believe most people want to believe that the market is some complex beast, something hard to understand, but its not.