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Originally posted by Kneeguel's Papi
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Cotto was winning the first fight until they got to round 8 where Margarito closing in on the scorecards and withering Cotto.
Cotto has to tie up, and work the left hand. That's all.
He landed over 45% of his jabs on Mayorga and Mayorga, while defensively void, he's fairly awkward. Margarito has worse defense and is actually easier to hit. The reason why Margarito can afford to fight his style is because he has a monster chin and has an ENORMOUS pain threshold (how the HELL do you fight with a broken cheekbone from round 4 all the way to the twelfth?! Jesus Christ...).
Cotto ISN'T getting stopped. If anything, he makes it to the final bell in REALLY bad shape but he isn't going to give Margarito the pleasure of being stopped agian. I agree that, in the worst case scenario, Cotto's heart will be his downfall.
However, I can't see that happening. Cotto took a beating from Pacquiao and, I've posted this several times, WON the TENTH round on two of the judges' scorecards in the Pacquiao fight! This was when he was already long gone, on his bike, and fighting to survive. Margarito is not as fast as Pacquiao, nor quick on his feet as Pacquiao. If Cotto can get to the final bell against someone as relentless as Pacquiao who is faster and more technical than Margarito, I can't see how he can't do it against a slower, more damaged, Margarito.
I agree that Cotto won't take a knee again. He is not going to catch flak for that again, against Margarito (of all people), and especially in Madison Square Garden (his house).
I just see too many things in Cotto's favor. He's less battle-worn than Margarito, he has the skills to fix his mistakes, and in the worst case scenario...he'll be fighting in MSG to help nudge the scorecards in his favor in a close fight.
Anyone who criticizes me on my last point knows that I'm right, though. Cotto has the hometown advantage and that influences judges. The Garden is going to be ELECTRIC that night...it's going to be one HELL of a grudge match.
I...can't...wait...
BTW, my prediction thus far: Cotto boxes the first three rounds and wins them with Margarito having four or five moments between them. In the fourth, Margarito starts to swell a little and Cotto starts tagging that area with Margarito becoming more and more aggressive. By the seventh, we're seeing flashbacks of the first fight with Margarito visibly hurting Cotto downstairs. Cotto doesn't look as tired as in the first, but his punches are not as snapping as in the first. Margarito, bloodied up and swollen, begins to outmuscle Cotto by the ninth. Cotto is fighting back in spots and landing combinations that score but have no effect on a crimson-masked Margarito. In the eleventh, the referee calls the doctor to check Margarito and the doctor says that he can't continue.
The Garden goes crazy, NSB shuts down...and another debate will rage on. The scorecards will have Margarito trailing by two points. Boxing writers will question the stoppage as Margarito looks less worse than in his fight against Pacquiao and was coming on strong against Cotto in the eleventh before the referee called time.
A trilogy will be announced afterwards...
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