Depends Largely on how well Lara can engage and if he can take Canelo's power shots.
We already know Canelo is too flat-footed to handle Lara's movement. So, does Canelo break the mold and chase Lara around the ring for 12 rounds?
And we know that Lara is going to circle around the stationary Canelo getting off jabs and heavy overhands. But does he break his pattern to actually engage Canelo in the center of the ring?
I would lean Lara ... BUT! Unless Lara can score a KD or two, he'll never get the decision, even if he thoroughly outboxes Canelo.