Ward would have fought Bute.
Neither is a lock for the HOF, at all. Ward has beaten Kessler, Bika, Abraham, Froch, and Dawson. Martinez has beaten Pavlik, Williams, Dzinziruk, Macklin, Chavez, and should have gotten the W over Cintron.
Ward will have to win titles at 175 to be a lock, which I obviously think he will. He'll probably go up to 175 and dominate as well, I don't see anyone beating Ward the next 4-5 years until Ward may lose a step or two.
Martinez needs to clean out MW by beating Geale, Golovkin, Pirog, Quillin, etc. If he does that and unifies MW by cleaning it out, he'll be a lock for the HOF. Calling out smaller fighters like Cotto and Floyd though, that's not going to do it. Or Sergio could take a bigger risk and move up in weight to win a title at 168. Any of that would get him into the HOF for sure.