I got Obama 303-234
Heres my map
If he wins Florida which Romney needs it will be an early night. Don't think Romney can take Ohio because of the auto bailout. If Obama loses Ohio (no Republican has won an election without winning this state in a very long time), he could win with Virginia and a state like Iowa.
another thing to consider is the unemployment rate in these battle ground states:
New Hampshire 5.7%
If Obama wins the 3 states at 5% he does not need Ohio and can still win.