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Why Froch vs Bute rematch won't be competitive!
My prediction for the first fight played out exactly how I thought it would, so here's my thoughts on the rematch.
1) Bute's inability to avoid the right hand.
Prior to the Froch fight, most people believed that Bute had a good defence, however it's easy to avoid the punches of slow plodding fighters like Magee, Andrade, and Johnson. Bute used his 'slickness' to avoid punches and that worked against the limited arsenal of the B- fighters he was used to facing. A fighter like Froch, whilst not a speedster, comes forward and throws combinations at angles with the intent of hurting his opponent. Bute wasn't used to the angles and pressure Froch presented and it showed in his inability to avoid Froch's right hand. Defensive movement and slickness is only effective when you are fast enough to make the minute changes necessary to avoid the incoming shots (see Ward and Mayweather). Bute's faux defensive skills just doesn't cut it against an iron chinned fighter like Froch who can take one to land his own and throws punches in bunches.
2) Bute can't hurt Froch.
I remember Bute landing a peach of an uppercut in an exchange and Froch simply stepped back, smiled, and continued to hurt Bute against the ropes. He also landed several of his patented uppercuts to Froch's body which also had no effect. Unless Bute lands that one in a million KO blow, he can't hurt Froch let alone stop him. Expect to see Froch even more confident in the rematch because of this.
3) His age.
Lucian Bute is 32 which means his style is already established and there is very little he can do different to beat Froch second time around. He fought the fight he was supposed to against Froch. He moved, didn't get lured into exchanges (unless hurt), and tried to catch Froch when he was coming in. This gameplan didn't work. It's not like he went toe to toe with Froch and lost. He fought how he was supposed to and lost in spectacular fashion. Considering the proximity of the rematch, his advancing years, and Froch's ability to fight coming forward or going back, there isn't much Bute can do to win short of running the entire fight and hoping for a hometown decison.
4) He is psychologically ruined.
Andrade cast the doubts in Bute's mind, Froch ensured they would never leave. Bute knows whether consciously or subconciously, there is very little he can do to beat Froch. The next time they face each other down he will look Froch in the eyes and see the man who he couldn't hurt and lost for the very first time to. Froch now has the superior confidence and Bute is the broken man. Sure Bute can still beat some of the good fighters in the division, but he'll know in the back of his mind that the likes of Kessler and Froch are one step too far. I'd even fancy Ward to stop Bute at this point. The confidence he had as an unbeaten fighter won't be there.
5) Poor recovery when hurt
Bute doesn't have a terrible chin but when he's hurt he stays hurt. When Froch has his man hurt he's like a patient shark - meaning he'll hunt you down but he won't smother his punches allowing you to recover. He throws enough to keep you on the backfoot but he'll be patient enough to spot the defensive openings to land those bone crunching punches of his. This stands in stark contrast to someone like Maidana who's relentlessness cost him a KO victory against Khan. If he remained patient and picked his punches, he could have got Khan out of there. Froch doesn't let this happen.
Prediction: Expect to see Bute run for the first half of the fight before Froch catches up with him and ends the fight in similar fashion to the first fight.