Out of those two, I think Evans has a better chance. People shouldn't take Rashad so lightly. His wrestling, movement, and speed can give Jones issues that he hasn't dealt with yet.
Machida and his style is kind of a wild card in my opinion. He either loses all 5 rounds on the scorecards or he knocks Jones silly. Pretty hard to predict if you ask me.
Although active, Jones does get pretty sloppy with his striking. He gets away with it because he has such a long reach. He relies on distance as does Machida, and 9 times out of 10 that favors the guy with the longer reach.
Machida is a much better counter striker than Jones, closing the distance wouldn't be out of the question as he does very quick on the feet. I'd love to see this match up.