By Cliff Rold

For anyone in the US who has access to BeIn Espanol through their cable provider, this is the test fight.

Are you a stargazer or are you a fight fan?

If it’s the latter, the chance that the Showtime main event could overlap with the main event on BeIn is of no matter.  Minds are already be made up.  On US TV, BeIn (11 PM EST) has the fight of the night on paper.

Everything else is DVR.

Hands down.

No question.

Anyone watching Adrien Broner-Emanuel Taylor who has the option to watch Juan Francisco Estrada-Giovani Segura either doesn’t know what they’re missing or has poor taste.

This isn’t an ‘eye of the beholder’ thing.  It’s just true.

The challenger has already been in a Fight of the Year (his 2010 win over Ivan Calderon) and was two outstanding outings in 2013 (versus Edgar Sosa and Tyson Marquez).  The titlist lost one of the best fights of 2012 (versus Roman Gonzalez), won his crowns from a red hot Brian Viloria in his next start, and hasn’t looked back in two exciting defenses.

This is as close to can’t miss as it gets.

Let’s go the report card.

The Ledgers

Juan Francisco Estrada

Age: 24

Title: WBA/WBO Flyweight (2013-Present, 2 Defenses)

Previous Titles: None

Height: 5’4

Weight: TBA

Hails from: Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico

Record: 26-2, 19 KO

Record in Major Title Fights: 3-1, 1 KO

Rankings: #1 (BoxingScene, TBRB, ESPN), #2 (Ring, BoxRec)

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 3 (Juan Carlos Sanchez L8; Roman Gonzalez L12; Brian Viloria SD12) 

Vs.

Giovani Segura

Age: 32

Title: None

Previous Titles: WBA Light Flyweight (2009-11, 4 Defenses); Linear/Ring/WBO World Jr. Flyweight (2010-11, 1 Defense)

Height: 5’3

Weight: TBA

Hails from: Bell, California (Born in Mexico)

Record: 32-3-1, 28 KO, 1 KOBY

Record in Major Title Fights: 5-1, 5 KO, 1 KOBY (6-2, 6 KO, 1 KOBY including interim title fights)

Rankings: #3 (BoxRec), #4(ESPN), #5 (BoxingScene), #6 (TBRB), #9 (Ring)

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 7 (Carlos Tamara UD12; Daniel Reyes KO1; Sonny Boy Jaro KO1; Ivan Calderon KO8, KO3; Brian Viloria TKO by 8; Edgar Sosa L12; Tyson Marquez KO12)

Grades

Pre-Fight: Speed – Estrada B; Segura B-

Pre-Fight: Power – Estrada B; Segura A-

Pre-Fight: Defense – Estrada B; Segura C

Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Estrada A; Segura A

Let’s start with the intangibles.  It’s what makes this scrap so mouth watering.  Analysis of jabs and speed and footwork is great, but the reason this looks so good is because we know what both men do if things get dicey.

They fight back.

Segura has a track record of fighting through fatigue and heavy shots.  Even when he was having his head handed to him by Brian Viloria, his one bad loss, he was still coming forward.  Against Calderon and Marquez, his two most thrilling wins, there were moments where Segura looked like he had hit the wall.  He punched through it.  His chin has been reliable.  He can be wobbled but dropping him is another matter.

Estrada also punches through adversity.  His war with Gonzalez, and recent efforts at Flyweight, have all featured moments where he was caught.  He didn’t shrink under fire.  Both men have shown good chins, Segura against a deeper pool of competition.  There is a wealth of ring character in this fight.

That doesn’t mean the x’s and o’s don’t’ matter,

Estrada has youth and precision on his side, both of them sure to be helpful as the action heats up. Estrada is good inside and out, his right a long weapon and his hooks inside short and leveraged.  Estrada’s jab might be able to knock Segura off balance and contain him in spots. Those will just be spots.  Segura doesn’t come to box.  With uncommon power and an all-out approach to offense, Segura makes anyone fight back to keep him at bay.

The wars that style has produced take a toll on the legs and Segura’s have looked older in recent vintage.  He’s slowed down from his peak and appears affected by shots more than when he was younger.  Estrada can exploit that with his jab and a schooled arsenal of crisp shots.  Viloria never let Segura sustain attacks but his short, explosive power game might have been more suited to exploit Segura.  When Estrada misses, or gets into exchanges, Segura will have chances and Estrada will be using his weapons to fight back.

Both men go to the body but Segura is more ferocious in that regard with more than one body shot knockout to his credit.  He can just as easily come upstairs for the finish.  Segura’s power game works with single shots and through violent attrition.

Estrada can punch as well but he isn’t the same sort of knockout finisher.  Since elevating his level of competition, he’s gone deep in fights.  The Mepranum fight, his only stoppage at the title level, went ten and Mepranum had some moments.  It doesn’t mean he can’t stop Segura.  It just means a sudden finish for Estrada is not the most likely scenario.

His key to victory will be boxing when he isn’t fighting.  Segura will be fighting all the way.

Defensively the edge is Estrada’s but not by huge gaps.  The inclinations of both men leave them there to be hit.  Estrada, with an edge in speed, can take less punishment by being first and closing exchanges.  The titlist keeps a tight guard and blocks shots well.  Segura can sometimes be tougher to catch than it appears, subtly leaning away or bending and keeping himself low before exploding back up.

The Pick

Put a pair of proven Mexican warriors, both having won three in a row, in the ring with two titles on the line and the ingredients are there.  Estrada looked like the goods in a thrilling loss to Roman Gonzalez in 2012.  He proved it by besting Viloria in 2013 and has defended twice, impressing both times.  Segura rebounded from an exciting loss to Sosa last year to win three in a row by knockout, including his Fight of the Year contender over Marquez.  Estrada is younger and more technically sound but he's hittable and Segura still hits with the best of them.  This is back against the wall time for Segura and he's going to let it all hang out.  It won't be enough against the young tiger in front of him.  Estrada will survive some rocky moments and could potentially force a save from Segura’s corner.  Respecting the will and beard of Segura, a clear Estrada decision is the safer pick.

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene and a member of the Transnational Boxing Ratings Board and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com