Advertisement
Advertisement
Boxingscene.com

CompuBox Pre-Fight Analysis: Pacquiao vs. Mosley

By CompuBox

Two years ago Manny Pacquiao vs. Shane Mosley was the next best thing to Pacquiao-Mayweather.  Now, in the eyes of most experts at least, it's a glorified mismatch pitting the pound-for-pound king against a 39-year-old who hasn't won in more than two years.  Pacquiao is nearly a 7-1 favorite.

But in a year filled with upsets -- Rubio over Lemieux Ishida over Kirkland being just the most recent -- the "experts" have been caught flat-footed time and again. Will history repeat itself during Saturday's megamatch? Their respective CompuBox histories offer these clues:

A Matter of Styles?: Some blame Mosley's erosion on age, both in terms of chronology and ring wear While being 39 is not ideal for a world-class fighter, part of Mosley's slide must be attributed to Sergio Mora's herky-jerky style and Floyd Mayweather's technical brilliance. "The Latin Snake" and "Money" have made careers out of making others look bad and Mosley was just another victim.

Despite the draw verdict, Mosley was statistically superior. He out-landed Mora 161-93 overall, 37-27 in jabs and -- most importantly -- 124-66 in power shots. He landed 31 percent (overall) and 37.5 percent (power) while holding the lanky Mora to just 18.3 percent and 23.1 percent respectively. That speaks well of Mosley's reflexes, for he was defensively sharp against a quick-handed opponent. As for the judging, many rounds were tough to score due to both men fighting in spurts.

The Mayweather loss was an artistic and numerical blowout. Although their outputs were similar (477-452 Mayweather), "Money" was brutally efficient as he landed 43.6 percent overall to Mosley's 20.4; 40.5 percent of his jabs to Mosley's 16.3 and 46.1 percent of his power shots to Mosley's 27.2. The raw connect totals were just as ugly as Mayweather led 208-92 (overall), 85-46 (jabs) and 123-46 (power).

Meanwhile, Mosley prospered against aggressors. Against Antonio Margarito, Ricardo Mayorga and Fernando Vargas (twice) Mosley averaged 16.5 connects per round to his foes' 10.7 and led 34.8 percent to 22.2 (overall), 22.0 to 15.2 (jabs) and 47.1 to 25.1 (power). That's far better than the deficits of 26.0-30.6 (overall), 17.5-25.9 (jabs) and 34.0-34.2 (power) he suffered against Mayweather and Mora.

Therefore, it will be better for Pacquiao to mix plenty of skills and movement with his natural aggression, for Mayweather and Mora's tricks limited Mosley to 40.6 punches per round. Against the aggressors Mosley threw 47.4, still under the welterweight average of 58.2.

Pacquiao's Finishing Kick: Since rising to welterweight -- and beyond -- Pacquiao's fights have followed a pattern: Competitive starts followed by phenomenally lengthy bursts that break bodies and wills.

The first three rounds against Cotto were suspenseful but from round four onward Pacquiao meted out a frightful beating. In those rounds Pacquiao landed 43.2 percent overall (248 of 574) to Cotto's 29.2 percent (116 of 397), including 47.7 percent of his power shots (205 of 430) to Cotto's 29.9 percent (58 of 194). The discouraging effect of Pacquiao's attack was graphically demonstrated by this stat: From round five onward, Cotto never managed to reach double-digits in power connects while Pacquiao averaged 22.8.

Against Clottey, the raw damage was limited due to the Ghanaian's shell defense but the results were no less lopsided. Over the final five Pacquiao averaged 110.8 punches per round -- nearly double the welterweight average -- while the bedazzled Clottey threw just 34.8. That allowed Pacquiao to amass gaps of 124-44 in overall connects and 120-40 in landed power shots.

The most gruesome battering took place against Margarito, perhaps because "The Tijuana Tornado" continued to defiantly fire back. In rounds four through 12, Pacquiao unloaded 94.4 punches per round to Margarito's 69.5 and built leads of 404-174 (total connects) and 350-111 (power connects). The 10th and 11th were grotesque as Pacquiao went 64 of 116 (overall) and 55 of 101 (power) to Margarito's 13 of 64 and 9 of 57. Pacquiao showed mercy by slowing to a mere 34 of 79 overall (43 percent) and 27 of 51 in power shots (53 percent) in the 12th while Margarito struggled to 10 of 58 (17 percent) and 3 of 11 (38 percent).

To give himself the best chance Mosley must slow Pacquiao's attack, which averaged 85.6 punches per round and a 47 percent power connect rate since rising to welterweight. If he doesn't, it will be a long, painful night.

Prediction: Mosley will be competitive early, but Pacquiao's speed will be too much for this version of "Sugar Shane." Pacquiao will pull away to a lopsided unanimous decision.

User Comments and Feedback (Register For Free To Comment) Comment by sdcluser on 05-07-2011

[QUOTE=P4P305;10490899]CompuBox predictions. Total punches landed/thrown Manny Pacquiao Landed: 378 Thrown: 1,024 37% Power punches Landed: 264 Thrown: 532 49% Total Jabs Landed: 114 Thrown: 492 23% ---------------------------------------------------------------- Total Punches landed/thrown Shane Mosley Landed: 165 Thrown: 520 32% Power punches Landed:…

Comment by Carpe Diem on 05-07-2011

CompuBox predictions. Total punches landed/thrown Manny Pacquiao Landed: 378 Thrown: 1,024 37% Power punches Landed: 264 Thrown: 532 49% Total Jabs Landed: 114 Thrown: 492 23% ---------------------------------------------------------------- Total Punches landed/thrown Shane Mosley Landed: 165 Thrown: 520 32% Power punches Landed:…

Comment by fdotorres on 05-07-2011

[QUOTE=Piper the Great;10486576]I have all my points in a bet already. But since you so sure put up half of ur points to my 0. PM me if you that confident.[/QUOTE] lets bet real money then, through paypal. lets see…

Comment by boracay420 on 05-07-2011

it will be a total wipeout but Shane should be grateful to Bob Arum for granting him a $5 mil payday

Comment by Carpe Diem on 05-07-2011

I'll bump my CompuBox thread if they're going to release the punch stats for the fight. It'll be interesting to know if Manny is going to throw 1000+ punches in three straight back-to-back fights. But knowing Showtime Boxing, there probably…

Post a Comment - View More User Comments (17)
Top Headlines George Groves Decisions a Bloody Chris Eubank Jr. George Groves vs. Chris Eubank - LIVE BoxingScene Scorecard Alexander: My Power Surprises People; Ortiz Will Be No Different Ronald Gavril: I'm a Smarter, Stronger Fighter Than Benavidez Sauerland: I Want To See Best Fighting The Best Every Year! Tony Bellew Sides With Groves, Dave Coldwell Picks Eubank Groves vs. Eubank - LIVE Results From Manchester Lolenga Mock vs. John Ryder in Play For April Otto Wallin vs. Adrian Granat Set for April 21 in Sweden Arum: Loma-Linares Fallout Proves Deceitful Nature of HBO! Groves vs. Eubank - CompuBox Historical Review George Groves vs. Chris Eubank Jr. - Stats & Stakes Photos: Ray Beltran Wins Bloody Fight With Moses For WBO Belt Eubank: I'm Willing To Die in The Ring To Win - Groves is Not! Golden Boy Prez: Arum Must Be Flexible To Make Loma-Linares Daily Bread Mailbag: Thurman-Crawford, Spence, Charlo, Golovkin Photos: Shakur Stevenson, Bryant Jennings, Kavaliauskas Win Frank Warren Tabs Groves To Beat Eubank, Explains Why Video: WBC Prez on Wilder-Ortiz, Usyk-Gassiev, 175 Title, More Video: Ronnie Shields on Lara-Hurd, Charlo vs. Canelo, GGG The Danger of The Crawford-Horn & Pacquiao-Alvarado PPV Video: Malignaggi Talks Mayweather, Broner-Figueroa, More Video: Al Bernstein Breaks Down Joshua-Parker, Showtime Triple Arum: Golovkin Beat Canelo 8-4 in Rounds, It Wasn't Even Close! Kavaliauskas: I Want The Crawford vs. Horn Winner! Photos: Heather Hardy Defeats Ana Julaton on Bellator Card Luis Ortiz: I Would Never Jeopardize My Career By Using PEDs Ray Beltran Bloody and Bruised, Decisions Moses For WBO Title Kavaliauskas Stops David Avanesyan in The Sixth Round Shakur Stevenson Picks Apart Tapia, Easily Wins Decision Photos: Victor Ortiz, Devon Alexander - Ready For Do or Die Bout Photos: Benavidez vs. Gavril, Ugas vs. Robinson - Ready For Battle Photos: Danny Garcia, Brandon Rios - Get Tense, Ready For War Photos: Joe Joyce Stops Rodolf Jozic in One, Back on May 5 LIVE Top Rank Results From Reno: Robson Conceicao Wins Big Photos: Juan Francisco Estrada Grinds For Sor Rungivsai Shot Joe Joyce Demolishes Rudolf Jozic in One Round Roman Gonzalez Has Interest in Donnie Nietes For Vacant Belt Matthysse: I Hope The Pacquiao Fight Happens For Me Parker Brings in Tony Yoka as Sparring Partner For Anthony Joshua
Advertisement

Latest Active Forum Threads
Advertisement
Advertisement