Advertisement
Advertisement
Boxingscene.com

CompuBox Pre-Analysis: David Haye vs. Dereck Chisora

By CompuBox

Who says crime doesn't pay? Had David Haye and Dereck Chisora gone at each other in the streets the way they did during the Vitali Klitschko-Chisora post-fight press conference, both would probably be sitting in a jail cell. But because it unfolded in a boxing setting, they scored a ring date that will result in extra millions pouring into their respective bank accounts.

So who will win Saturday's grudge match? Their respective CompuBox pasts provide these possible answers:

Haye's Slow Trigger: Ever since rising to heavyweight, the dynamic punching that marked Haye's cruiserweight reign has been largely absent -- at least in terms of volume. In his four heavyweight title fights Haye averaged just 25.4 "Hayemakers" per round -- 45% below the 45.8 heavyweight average.

He managed to dethrone then-WBA titlist Nikolay Valuev by decision in the Russian's adopted home base of Germany despite throwing a microscopic 14.2 punches per round. He stopped Audley Harrison in three but threw just 34.6 per round and sleepwalked through the heavily-hyped unification match with Wladimir Klitschko by firing just 24.2 per round. The reasons Haye went 2-1 instead of 0-3 can be traced to one set of numbers-- accurate and timely power punching by Haye and sub-par marksmanship by his opponents.

He connected on 51.3% of his power shots against Valuev while being struck by just 20.2%. Against Harrison he landed 36.1% while his countryman didn't attempt a single power punch. And in losing to Klitschko, Haye connected at 30.3% while "Dr. Steelhammer" clocked in at 21.8%. These days, judges take output and power punching into heavy consideration when scoring close rounds and while Haye lacks one, he excels in the other.

A Possible Blueprint: If Haye wants to use a template to beat Chisora while also exciting the masses, he need not look farther than his own fight with John Ruiz. There, Haye threw a robust (for him) 42.3 punches per round, landed 47.9% of his power shots and out-landed the ex-champ 142-82 (total), 64-47 (jabs) and 78-35 (power). Along with the activity, Haye also was accurate as he landed 39% overall, 31.8% jabs and 47.9% power.

Lighter is Righter: Like Chris Arreola, the number on the scale has a direct correlation on Chisora's performance level. In losing a 12-round decision to Tyson Fury, the lethargic 261-pound Chisora could only muster 26 punches per round while the fit 255 1/2-pound Fury unleashed 64.6 per round and amassed connect leads of 295-115 (total), 58-20 (jabs) and 237-95 (power). Fury landed 51.9% of his power shots and 38.1% overall, trumping Chisora's 36.9% and 40.8% respectively.

But when Chisora slimmed into the 240s, he performed better. In "losing" a horrifically-scored decision against Robert Helenius, a 243-pound Chisora uncorked 56 punches per round and pounded out connect advantages of 278-140 (t9tal), 64-63 (jabs) and 214-77 (power). He also rocked the Finn with 41.4% of his total punches, 31.4% of his jabs and 45.7% of his power shots while limiting his 6-9 opponent to 21.6% overall, 14.6% jabs and 35.8% power.

Against Vitali Klitschko, a 241 1/4-pound Chisora averaged only 29.9 punches per round only because he had difficulty getting inside "Dr. Ironfist's" long arms. But when he threw, he landed at a higher percentage than most of Big Brother's recent opponents as he landed 45.4% of his total punches, an impressive 46.5% of his jabs and 45.1% of his power shots. Moreover, Chisora limited Klitschko's jab to 22.1% accuracy but did get hit by 44.4% of his power shots, vaulting him to connect leads of 211-163 (total), 57-33 (jabs) and 154-130 (power).

If Chisora wants to maximize his potential as a fighter, he should work his way down into the 220s. But if that's not possible, the 230s would suffice.

Prediction: Haye, a 13-5 favorite, is coming off the longest hiatus of his career while Chisora has been active. Also, this fight summoned Haye out of retirement, which could either mean he's extra-motivated or he's trying to restart what he intended to be a dormant engine. No one will be able to tell which it is until the bell actually rings.

Despite the pre-fight venom, expect a slow-paced fight with Chisora taking the lead. If Haye has the desire to fight, his athleticism and superior conditioning will likely lead him past Chisora by decision.

User Comments and Feedback (Register For Free To Comment) Post a Comment - View More User Comments (0)
Top Headlines Austin Trout Eyes Return in Early 2018, With "True 154 Pounder" Barrera: Shabranskyy Hits Hard, Definitely Can Beat Kovalev Saunders: Jacobs Praised For 'Brilliant Loss' - You Lost, Got Beat! Carl Frampton: I'm Ready For World Title Fight if it Comes Next Atif Shafiq Assesses Bramall Lane Victory, Plans For 2018 Joshua: Fury Boxed and Ran With Klitschko - I Don't Respect That! Brook Willing To Eat a Kangaroo Testicle To Secure Amir Khan British Board Confirm Tyson Fury's UKAD Hearing For December Jason Sosa Seeks Own Impressive Comeback on Kovalev Card Bob Arum To Hearn: 65-35 is More Than Fair For Joshua-Parker Andre Dirrell vs. Jose Uzcategui Rematch in Play For January 27 Khan is Reportedly Highest Paid Contestant Ever on "I'm a Celeb" Duva: Kovalev Looks Better Physically, Happier, With New Coach Photos: Orlando Salido Putting in Work For Roman Clash WBC Prez: GGG Conquered The Hearts of Mexico, I Was Humbled Joshua Promoter: Our Offer is 'Five Times' Parker's Biggest Purse Salido: I Will Show Why So Many Champions Are Afraid of Me! Hearn Says Anthony Joshua Social Media Mess is 'Major Problem' Tyson Fury's Promoter Gives Statement on UKAD Hearing Delays UK Boxing News: Welborn, Hennon, Connor, Beech, More Photo: Tyson Fury Shows Off Bloated Form in Training Camp Joshua: I'd Knock Wilder Out With One Shot, Smack Parker Around! Manny Pacquiao Hints That He Wants Conor McGregor Next Groves: Eubank Improved, But Never Boxed Anyone on My Level Photos: Devon Alexander Returns Strong, Dominates Castillo Barrera 'Bitter' About Shabranskyy Getting Title Shot Before Him Austin Trout: Jacobs Beat Golovkin, He's The Best at 160! Kovalev: Loss to Ward in Our Rematch Didn't Break Me Mentally Saunders: I'll Beat Lemieux Convincingly, No Robbery Worries Frank Warren Says Door is Wide Open For Scott Quigg To Join Parker: I'm a Big Risk - Joshua Needs Over 65%, Rematch Clause Parker Promoter: More People Contacted Us About Joshua's Chin Joshua's Promoter: I Can't See a Wilder Deal, Parker More Likely Video: Golden Boy's Diaz Talks Cotto vs. Ali, Arum's Beef, More Alexander Dimitrenko Back on December 22, Adrian Granat Too Sergey Kovalev - From a Single Point to a Question Mark Wilder To Hearn: Add Joshua To Whyte Deal - I'll Whip Their Asses! Video: Kathy Duva Breaks Down HBO Triple, Kovalev's Return Video: Jason Sosa Discusses Yuriorkis Gamboa Showdown Sullivan Barrera to face Sergey Kovalev or Dmitry Bivol in 2018?
Advertisement

Latest Active Forum Threads
Advertisement
Advertisement