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CompuBox Analysis: Tomasz Adamek vs. Eddie Chambers

By CompuBox

Though they are different fighters stylistically, Tomasz Adamek and Eddie Chambers share similarities.

First, they are moderately sized heavyweights in height (6-1 for Chambers, 6-1 1/2 for Adamek) and weight (Chambers has averaged 208.5 in his last three while Adamek averaged 217.8).

Second, they were stopped by Klitschkos two fights earlier -- Wladimir halted Chambers in 12 while Vitali beat Adamek in 10.

Third, both have strong ties to Newark, N.J., the site of Saturday's fight. Chambers hails from nearby Philadelphia while seven of Adamek's last 11 fights have been held at the Prudential Center.

Finally, they are accustomed to long-distance fights, for six of Adamek's last seven have gone 10 or more while Chambers' last four went 46 of a possible 48 rounds.

Will their styles mesh or will they react like oil and water? Only time will tell, but their CompuBox histories provide the following clues as to what type of bout this may be:

A Balanced Approach: One secret to Adamek's heavyweight success is his almost equal split between jabs and power punches, which forces opponents to guess what's coming next. In his three most recent fights Adamek threw more jabs than power punches, but the ratios were 52-48 (Nagy Aguilera), 55-45 (Vitali Klitschko) and 51-49 (Kevin McBride).

That balance has enhanced his connect percentages:

Vs. Aguilera: 45.1 percent overall, 34.6 percent jabs, 56.4 percent power
Vs. Klitschko: 29.6 percent overall, 32.5 percent jabs, 25.9 percent power
Vs. McBridge: 34.5 percent overall, 30.3 percent jabs, 39.0 percent power
Heavyweight average: 37.0 percent overall, 29.9 percent jabs, 42.4 percent power

One Dangerous Flaw: As of late, Adamek has been hit with an unusually high percentage of jabs. Aguilera connected with 32.9 percent of them while Klitschko landed  33.8 percent -- both above the division norm. Against Chambers, whose best weapon is the jab, this bodes badly.

Chamber's Big Stick: The jab is the centerpiece of Chambers' offense and whenever he throws, it connects. He landed 29.1 percent in his rematch against Derric Rossy (W 12)
and 34.3 percent in beating Alexander Dimitrenko (W 12). Even in losing to Wladimir Klitschko he landed 33.5 percent of his jabs -- the second highest percentage tracked in 23 Wladimir Klitschko CompuBox-tracked fights (only Ray Mercer's 43 percent in 2002 was higher). The jab's success helped elevate his power punch percentage against Rossy (38.7) and Dimitrenko (40.5) but didn't work against Klitschko (19.5).

Eddie's Achilles' Heel: Below-average volume. Even when Chambers is in full control his motor runs slowly -- but not always. While he averaged 36 punches against Rossy and 22.8 against Klitschko, he did throw 45.3 per round against Dimitrenko -- which, not coincidentally, was his most impressive outing of late. If he is to counteract Adamek's activity he must increase his own pace while also remaining defensively responsible.

Prediction: Adamek, nearly a 2-1 favorite, is a proactive fighter while Chambers is reactive. This will give Adamek the upper hand in the exchanges and will earn him enough rounds to win a unanimous decision.

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