CompuBox Analysis: Jermell Charlo-Demetrius Hopkins

By CompuBox

Of all the matchmaking story lines in boxing, prospect versus veteran is probably the most frequently used. Most of the time the onus is on the prospect to deliver but every once in a while the old dog manages to rise up one last time. Saturday's match between undefeated junior middleweight Jermell Charlo and 13-year veteran Demetrius Hopkins, still stunningly young at 32, could answer several questions surrounding both but the main queries are these: (1) Is Charlo ready to make the next step upward and (2) Does Hopkins still have enough to stop him?

CompuBox factors that may reveal those answers include:

Battle of the Jabs: The typical junior middleweight throws 58.3 punches per round, and of those, 33.7 -- or 57.8% -- are power shots. However, Charlo and Hopkins are fighters who rely heavily on their jabs.

In his most recent fight against Harry Joe Yorgey, 257 of Charlo's 411 punches -- 62.5% -- were jabs. The pattern held in his bouts against Dashon Johnson (66.8%), Denis Douglin (50.9%) Francisco Santana (56.5%) and Luis Grajeda (68.3%). When one combines all five CompuBox-tracked fights, the jab comprises 62.8% of his total offense (35.8 of 57 punches per round). It's not a bad jab either, for its combined 21% accuracy is slightly below the 21.8% junior middleweight average.

While Charlo's jab has always worked frequently and fairly effectively, Hopkins has been around long enough to experience the ups and downs in terms of performance. When the Hopkins jab is in rhythm he can be extremely effective. In his most recent outing against 39-year-old Charles Whittaker, Hopkins' jab was devastating in terms of controlling distance and setting up the rest of his game. The jab, which made up 70.5% of his total offense, achieved double-digit connects in all six rounds and landed a mind-boggling 48.4% of the time -- more than double the 154-pound average. It led to connect bulges of 117-31 (overall), 88-21 (jabs) and 29-10 (power) and helped achieve 38% power punching accuracy.

Against southpaw Mike Arnaoutis, Hopkins' jab still controlled the landscape as he fired 42.2 of them per round. Yes, it landed just 17% of the time but it was quick enough to limit Arnaoutis' attack. The connect gaps (135-65 total, 71-26 jabs, 64-39 power) were more than enough to win the unanimous decision.

The bad news for Hopkins is that a quirky, herky-jerky style can short-circuit Hopkins' jab. That's what Brad Soloman did in winning a wide decision and the numbers tell a compelling story -- Hopkins threw just 10.8 jabs per round and though he landed 19% of them and led 21-13 in jab connects, those factors weren't enough to overcome Soloman's superior work rate (46.7 to 37.9 per round) and connect advantages of 134-113 (overall) and 121-92 (power). Charlo is capable of jamming Hopkins' jab with his speed and athleticism.

The Pivotal Factor?: While they represent mirror images of each other stylistically, one phase may prove decisive -- defensive skills.

Both are tough to hit but Hopkins has been a little more reachable as of late. In his three most recent CompuBox-tracked fights against Arnaoutis, Soloman and Whittaker, Hopkins has been struck with 23% of his opponents' total punches and 35% of their power shots -- the latter figure being just below the 37.4% junior middleweight average. Meanwhile, in five CompuBox-tracked fights -- albeit against lower-level opposition -- Charlo has tasted 21% of his opponents' total punches and 28% of their power shots. Will Hopkins' savvy be enough to penetrate Charlo's guard or will Charlo's youth and reflexes prevail?

Prediction: This fight will be one for the purists, which can also be interpreted as one that won't be the most TV-friendly in terms of action. More than most other fights, the outcome of Charlo-Hopkins will rely on reflexes. Charlo hopes his youth and physical resources will rule the day while Hopkins hopes his experience will frustrate the youngster into mistakes. One other factor that will swing the pendulum is this: Charlo is the naturally bigger man with the potential of hurting Hopkins more than Hopkins -- who campaigned for years at 135 and 140 -- can hurt him.

Younger and bigger usually beats older and smaller. Charlo by unanimous decision.

User Comments and Feedback (Register For Free To Comment) Post a Comment - View More User Comments (0)
Top Headlines Jeff Horn Ready For IBF Strap: 100%, Bring on Errol Spence! Hooker Plans on Testing Perez's Chin Early on Kovalev vs. Ward Marin, Pintor Make Weight For Boxeo Telemundo Season Finale Photo: Micki Nielsen, Kevin Lerena Ready For Battle Abel Sanchez Very Confident That Andy Ruiz Beats Joseph Parker Frampton: I'll Make it Two-Nil, Santa Cruz Only Fights One Way! Golovkin's Coach: I Doubt Canelo Will Last Eight or Nine Rounds Jeff Horn Crushes Rico Mueller As Title Shot Nears David Haye: Fans Want Me To Smash Tony Bellew, Shut Him Up Joshua Taylor Tabbed To Become World Champion By McGuigan Tim Bradley: I Need To Retire A Winner, Capture One More Title Eric Molina: I'll Fight Anthony Joshua or David Price on Dec. 10 Canelo: It Would Be an Honor To Rematch Miguel Cotto Kevin Lerena Confident of Knocking Micki Nielsen Out Dejan Zlaticanin: I'm Fighting Mikey Garcia on January 28 Custio Clayton Stops Ramses Agaton in Eight Rounds in Montreal WBO Prez To Canelo Critics: Why Did Golovkin Reject Andre Ward! Terence Crawford Seeks Foe For 12/10, Antonio Orozco Next? Chavez Sr. Expects His Son To Return Stronger, Better Than Ever Jessie Magdaleno, Oscar Valdez Discuss Their PPV Fights Golovkin, Sanchez Frown at Golden Boy's Offer To Face Canelo Charlo-Williams, Cuellar-Mares, Promoted By Schaefer, on Dec. 10 Photos: LaRon Mitchell, Scott Alexander Ready For Battle Photos: Valdez, Magdaleno Putting in Work For PPV Fights Golovkin's Promoter Willing To Make Concessions To Get Canelo David Price: If I Land Joshua, I'm Going in There To Do Damage WBO Prez: No Doubt Canelo Knocks Mayweather Out in Rematch! Orlando Salido's Adviser Provides Update on Back Injury Abel Sanchez Has High Expectations For Alex Saucedo Photos: Gennady Golovkin is a Big Hit in Mexico City Parker-Ruiz Approved For WBO Belt, Winner Must Face David Haye Sam Soliman Over The Moon With Court Victory in Germany Coyle-Hibbert, Scarpa-Davies, Bellotti Set For Nov 26 at Wembley Hearn Frustrated: Klitschko-Browne is Huge Letdown For Fans! Carl Frampton Says Rematch Deal Finalized With Leo Santa Cruz Chilemba Training With Roy Jones Jr. For Oleksandr Gvozdyk Alberto Palmetta, Olympian, Inks With Sampson, Maravilla Photos: Frankie Gavin, Sam Eggington Square Up at FInal Presser Abel Sanchez: Golovkin Can Be Nice, Gassiev Wants To Hurt You! Tony Thompson: That ‘Fool’ Dillian Whyte Is C-Level, Easy Work

Latest Active Forum Threads