Bookmark Website  | Free Registration  | The Team
The Lounge  | Champions  | The Wire |  Schedule |  Audio  |  Arcade  |  The Top Ten  |  Historical  |  Email  |  Video

The Concept of Value in Sports Betting!


In sports betting you need to make sure that your bets (and trades) are good value in order to make a profit. If you do not do this you will still win bets but profits may be harder to achieve.

Let me explain this last statement. I actually lose more bets than I win - but the prices or odds at which I bet compensate for the losing plays.

If you bet all season long on the NY Yankees (US Baseball) or Arsenal FC (English Premiership) - to win each game - you will probably end up with a fairly good winning strike rate - but it is unlikely that you will make any money. The odds will be 'short' and you may do better to try and predict when these teams might falter - and bet against them at the over inflated prices being offered on the opposing teams. These opposing teams will most likely offer the value - as they are not the popular betting choice.

When we flip a coin, we know that the true chance of it turning up heads or tails is 50% or 'evens' (1/1).

As an example we set up a 'coin flipping' betting event. A neutral party begins to flip the coin. With each subsequent flip there is a definite preference for heads in the betting. The bookmaker or sportsbook takes this in his stride, he has already set the odds at 10/11 (-110 US) for either outcome which takes into account his commission. He knows that this trend is fairly usual as heads is often favored in this type of event. He decides, however, to balance his books a little by reducing his odds on heads to 5/6 and increasing tails to 1/1.

Heads is now an even shorter price and represents no value. Tails now stands at a slightly better price but still only represents the 'true odds' or likelihood of winning at 1/1 or 50% and so is not value.

The event continues and still the betting favors heads. Why? Well the 'average bettor' does not really understand 'value', he does not understand that heads might well be a bad bet or hold no value. He just enjoys betting and since 'heads' is winning - he wants to bet on heads.

The bookmaker balances his books again with a dramatic shortening of the odds for heads to 4/9 and a lengthening to 6/4 (+150 US), on tails.

At this point the professional bettor would step in and begin to place bets on tails. He knows that he has got value at 6/4 for an event where the 'true odds' of success are 1/1.

About The Author

Daniel B. King has been a professional sports bettor and trader for seven years. He offers advice to a number of high profile sportsbooks:

www.vipsportsgroup.com

www.sbsportsbook.com

www.betonenine.com

www.betongameday.com

- all of which are industry leaders in the sports betting and gambling field.

SportsTrade@arbitrage.ws


MORE RESOURCES:

Louisville Business First

Flanery: Lack of casino gambling could be 'death by a thousand cuts' for ...
Louisville Business First
In response to a question about casino gambling, he said Kentucky is losing out to states such as Indiana and Ohio that get the financial benefit from money spent by Kentuckians in their casinos. That is money, he said, that could be applied to roads ...



Tallahassee.com

House panel hears casino gambling bill
Tallahassee.com
House Majority Leader Dana Young said she wanted to get a discussion going on gambling Thursday, so a committee heard about everything from glamorous mega-casinos to dying greyhounds in a four-hour hearing. Whether legislators will make any major ...
Florida debates gambling as big players lay down their betsWTAQ

all 66 news articles »


This is the year to expand casino gambling
Chicago Tribune
If the Illinois Legislature is ever going to pass a casino expansion bill, the odds are good this is going to be the year. Both the state and Chicago are facing major financial problems that will be worsened if the Illinois Supreme Court rules, as ...



Atlanta Business Chronicle (blog)

Casino Gambling Legalization Introduced; Projections Suggest $250M For HOPE
Peach Pundit
Today, a bi-partisan group of lawmakers has dropped bills that would pave the way for Georgia to aim higher and assert itself into the major leagues of casino gambling. Supporters of HR 807 and HB 677 tout a potential payoff of 10,000 construction jobs ...
Exclusive: Bills would legalize casino resorts in GeorgiaAtlanta Journal Constitution
Georgia lawmakers to look at legalizing casinosAtlanta Business Chronicle (blog)
Rep. Stephens files legislation that would bring full gambling t - MyFoxAL.com ...FOX6 WBRC - MyFoxAL.com

all 15 news articles »


Bradenton Herald

Don't spread casino gambling across Florida
Bradenton Herald
Florida should not become another Nevada with gambling casinos strung across the state, but that's the possible scenario with pending legislation in Tallahassee. Instead, the state should be renogtiating its exclusive gaming agreement with the Seminole ...

and more »


Crossmap

GTA 5 Online Heists: Casino, Gambling DLC Release Leaked: Players Could ...
Crossmap
New details surfaced online purporting the release of GTA 5 Online Casino DLC has been revealed by an avid fan and added that this new expansion pack is about Casino, Slot Machines, Lottery, and Gambling where players can win millions of dollars.

and more »


Online Poker.net

New York Looks To Expand Casino Gambling Before Online Poker
Online Poker.net
New York Looks To Expand Casino Gambling Before Online Poker New York currently has five Native-American casinos, and nine racetracks with video lottery terminals, but between 2013 and 2014 gambling revenues were down by 0.8% (after inflation), ...

and more »


WTNH

Latest casino bill differs from 1995 Bridgeport effort
WTNH
(AP) — The last time Connecticut lawmakers considered expanding casino gambling 20 years ago, there was a very different process in place. The state's Division of Special Revenue issued a request for proposals from casino operators wanting to open a ...
Third Casino Vital To Thriving State TourismHartford Courant
Keno comeback on legislative agendaWaterbury Republican American

all 10 news articles »


New York Daily News

Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg slams Andrew Cuomo's decisions to expand ...
New York Daily News
ALBANY - Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg Wednesday broke his silence on New York politics Wednesday —ripping Gov. Cuomo's decisions to expand casino gambling and reject hydrofracking. Bloomberg, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, said ...

and more »


Bloomberg

Why Investors See Macau's 40% Casino Sales Drop as Good News
Bloomberg
The campaign has hurt sales of luxury goods and deterred high rollers from visiting the country's only legal enclave of casino gambling. A smoking ban in casinos and stricter visa rules have also damped business. The former Portuguese colony recorded ...
Macau casinos post their second worst declineSalt Lake Tribune
Macau Casino Revenues Plunge 39% To $2.7bn In MarchOnline Poker.net
Macau Casinos Post Second Worst Drop Amid Anti-Graft ProbeLas Vegas Blog (blog)
AsiaOne
all 78 news articles »

Google News


Advertisement



Section Site Map - Submit News - Feedback - Comments - Advertise with Us

Copyright © 2006 Luminati Inc. All rights reserved.