By Andreas Hale
With credible options dwindling that boxing fans would accept aside from a showdown with Gennady Golovkin, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez turned his attention toward Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. and effectively got the skeptics off of his back for the time being. But is there a significant risk for Canelo heading into his May 6th showdown with the son of the boxing legend?
Yes. And certainly much more than you think.
Although Canelo has managed to keep the critics from slamming his perceived avoidance of GGG, taking a fight with Chavez has it’s own set of dangers. The obvious one is losing.
Despite being a significant favorite heading into the fight, Canelo will finally be the smaller man when he steps between the ropes against Chavez. He’ll give up four inches in height and a little over two inches in reach. With the fight being contested at 164.5 pounds, Canelo will be giving up size, which he has successfully utilized against all of his opponents not named Floyd Mayweather.
Looking back on his career, Canelo has spent a great deal of time facing smaller opposition. From Amir Khan to Josesito Lopez, Canelo has managed to hold a significant size advantage on fight night due to his ability to balloon up to nearly twenty pounds higher than the contracted weight. But he won’t have that luxury against Chavez.
With all of the attention on whether Chavez can make weight, there is a bit of curiosity surrounding how big both fighters will be come fight night. If Chavez is truly in the best shape of his life, things could get very interesting when the bell rings on Saturday night.
Canelo holds distinct advantages in hand speed and footwork but so did Sergio Martinez until he was rocked by his heavy-handed opponent in the final round. It’s been widely known that Chavez didn’t properly prepare for that fight, yet he nearly stole it with a dramatic late round knockout. If (and it’s a big if) Chavez manages to goad Canelo into a slugfest and lands one of those thudding shots, there’s a chance that the redhead can be put on his back.
But even if you remove the possibility of a loss, there’s a chance that Chavez can come out victorious even if he’s unable to get his hand raised in victory. If Chavez puts on a good showing for the Mexican fans, a career that was once dead in the water will be brought back to life. Honestly, this fight does more for Chavez’ career than it does for Canelo. Considering that Chavez’ popularity is less about his in-ring performances and more about his legendary father, this is an opportunity for the 31-year-old to finally live up to his potential, which most boxing pundits believe that he hasn’t come close to reaching. If you recall, Chavez came out as the hero against Martinez despite being dominated for every minute of every round up until that final dramatic sequence. With his stock lower than it has been since coming off a knockout loss to Andrzej Fonfara and all of the out of ring issues that followed him, a big punch landed that rocks Canelo would work wonders for him. Honestly, this was like hitting the jackpot.
Although Canelo will earn a significant paycheck in a fight that carries a ton of significance for his fellow countrymen, there are few ways that it can help bolster the career of Alvarez. As a matter of fact, a decent performance might not even be good enough to silence the skeptics considering that Golovkin garnered some criticism for how he looked against Daniel Jacobs. Considering what is on the line, the fans who tune in and have paid for tickets will yearn for blood. But Canelo wouldn’t be very wise to engage in a firefight with Chavez, no matter how badly the fans want it. Any semblance of a brawl gives Chavez an opportunity to land a big punch and turn the tide. However, with Canelo being a competent boxer, he could easily play it safe and win a decision.
But who is going to want to see that?
It’s a double-edged sword for Canelo as he will give Chavez opportunities to win in a brawl but please the fans or he can put on a boxing clinic that will be criticized by his Mexican fan base. Damned if you do and damned if you don’t, right?
There’s no doubt that this will be a huge event. But when you pull back the curtain, there is a lot of risk that Team Canelo had to accept before the fight was made. He’s supposed to win but will do himself no favors by sucking the drama out of the fight. He needs a knockout to put himself in a better light, but Chavez Jr. has often proven to have a sturdy chin. A knockout will require risk against a heavier man whose only chance to win is if he lands a clean punch during a reckless exchange.
Perhaps Canelo made the right decision and will see his stock rise with a scintillating performance against a bigger opponent. But there is certainly a number of risks that he is taking by accepting this fight. And, honestly, he should be appreciated for taking this fight rather than fighting yet another blown up junior middleweight.
