By Cliff Rold
Saul Alvarez is making a habit of taking the fights larges masses of the public insist he won’t.
Floyd Mayweather was a gimme’ in terms of taking on quality opposition. One only gets so much credit for it. Anyone who had the chance to fight the biggest money attraction in the history of boxing would do it. He also fought Austin Trout and Erislandy Lara though, when there was no such incentive and when most assumed he’d be steered on a safer course.
Now he’s fighting the boogeyman of the middleweight division. It’s the fight a million social media posts cried for; the cloud that hung over Alvarez’s reputation since winning the WBC and lineal middleweight crowns from Miguel Cotto in 2015. He didn’t go straight at Golovkin and some, not unreasonably, held it against him.
In many ways, it was a compound grievance. Alvarez was taking the full brunt of a section of boxing fandom that saw first Felix Sturm, Sergio Martinez, and Miguel Cotto find easier ways to make a living. Alvarez made him wait a little while but ultimately, he’s the man who gave Golovkin the fight.
Will he be the man to defeat him on Saturday (HBO PPV, 8 PM EST/5 PM PST)?
Let’s go the report card.
The Ledger
Saul Alvarez
Age: 27
Title: Lineal/Ring World Middleweight (2015-Present, 1 Defense)
Previous Titles: WBC Super Welterweight (2011-13, 6 Defenses); WBA/Ring Jr. Middleweight (2013); WBC Middleweight (2015-16, 1 Defense); TBRB Middleweight (2015-17); WBO Jr. Middleweight (2016-17)
Height: 5’9
Weight: 160 lbs.
Hails from: Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico
Record: 49-1-1, 34 KO?
Record in Major Title Fights: 10-1, 6 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: Miguel Vazquez SD4, UD10; Carlos Baldomir KO6; Lovemore N’dou UD12; Kermit Cintron TKO5; Shane Mosley UD12; Austin Trout UD12; Floyd Mayweather L12; Erislandy Lara SD12; Miguel Cotto UD12; Amir Khan KO6; Liam Smith KO9; Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. UD12
Vs.
Gennady Golovkin
Age: 35
Title: WBA “super” middleweight (2010-Present, 18 Defenses); WBC middleweight (2014-Present, 6 Defenses); IBF middleweight (2015-Present, 3 Defenses)
Previous Titles: None
Height: 5’10 ½
Weight: 160 lbs.
Hails from: Los Angeles, California (Hails from Kazakhstan)?
Record: 37-0, 33 KO
Rankings: #1 (BoxingScene, TBRB, Ring, ESPN, Boxing Monthly, BoxRec)
Record in Major Title Fights: 18-0, 17 KO (19-0, 18 KO including interim title fights)
Current/Former World Champions Faced: Kasim Ouma TKO10; Daniel Geale TKO3; David Lemieux TKO8; Kell Brook TKO5; Daniel Jacobs UD12 (Jacobs was the sub-WBA champion)
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Alvarez B; Golovkin B
Pre-Fight: Power – Alvarez B+; Golovkin A+
Pre-Fight: Defense – Alvarez B; Golovkin B
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Alvarez A; Golovkin A
For all the talk about Alvarez being the smaller man at some turns along the road to this fight, here’s a bit or irony: if one subtracts Daniel Jacobs because he was never really the top WBA titlist at middleweight, both Golovkin and Alvarez have beaten the same number of former middleweight titlists from this era.
Alvarez has beaten, and faced, a wider range of everything else along the way. Golovkin is the older man with the deeper amateur background. Alvarez is younger but has had far more fights and a wider range of professional opposition. In a vacuum, on paper, one might say Alvarez is the more experienced professional. He even turned professional before Golovkin (2005 versus 2006).
Of course, we don’t live in a vacuum. Alvarez’s early professional fights were taking place while he was still literally a kid; Golovkin was coming out of a decorated international amateur career that included a 2004 Olympic Silver Medal and a 2003 World championship. Golovkin had a big early lead in terms of experience but Alvarez has certainly closed the gap.
Alvarez has competed well with everyone but Mayweather, and even there he appeared more outclassed than incompetent. He doesn’t always impress against quality foes, but he’s there with them. Both Trout and Lara had arguments for wins over Alvarez but neither was an egregious robbery. He competes because he has heavy hands that are quicker than they sometimes appear, good balance, solid fundamentals, and underrated head movement.
His head movement is quite a bit better than Golovkin’s, the Kazakh puncher relying on a chin that hasn’t failed him in the slightest. Where Alvarez doesn’t have an edge is in foot speed. He and Golovkin are both fairly stationary fighters and Golovkin is better at cutting off the ring and trapping foes. Alvarez may slip head shots but he’s going to eat some heavy leather to the body. Alvarez’s uppercut, if timed right, could keep Golovkin respectful and away.
In terms of intangibles, both men have strong qualities. Alvarez is willing and meets the burden of his stardom. He keeps making the big events. It may not always happen on the timetable of hardcore fans but, like his promoter Oscar De La Hoya, the list of deserving foes he hasn’t faced since he accelerated his career into real drive in 2012 keeps getting shorter. He’s shown good whiskers against the men he’s faced to date and he’ll need them on Saturday.
Golovkin hasn’t faced the same depth of opposition but perceived struggles at times in his last two fights could be a boon here. Kell Brook and Daniel Jacobs were two of the most talented foes of his career and Jacobs in particular over performed versus expectation. Both would be long nights for Alvarez as well and both are quicker than Alvarez. Having faced some adversity prior to the Alvarez fight could help Golovkin avoid being over confident after facing mostly opponents against whom he could have easily grown stagnant.
The Pick
While looking forward to seeing this on Saturday, it’s never held the allure in this corner it does for some. Some of the avoidance of Golovkin was deft mythmaking but there was plenty of reality in it. Alvarez takes him on at the point where his value is highest as the B-side in the promotion and Golovkin has a chance to prove himself in front of the biggest audience of his career. Alvarez thinks he can win. Golovkin likely proves him wrong. Alvarez has never faced an elite puncher with the skill of Golovkin. That’s going to make all the difference. Alvarez will be quicker, especially early, and may build a lead but the jab and body attack of Golovkin will begin to wear on him. When they do, he’ll be in range for the left hook of Golovkin. Golovkin may need a stoppage to win against the younger man with so much economic importance for the future. The thinking here is he gets it. The pick is Golovkin by late stoppage.
Report Card and Staff Picks 2017: 35-13
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
