By TMZ Sports

Conor McGregor beating Floyd Mayweather would be the biggest upset EVER ... this according to the man responsible for the most shocking upset in boxing history.

"I would think so," Douglas told TMZ Sports. "I think his odds are a lot longer than mine [in being able to get an upset."

"Conor is a fighter, but he's not a boxer. I think he's going to be a real disadvantage. I expect Mayweather to be at his best. His luck is a lot tougher than me. He has no boxing skills. He's strong, he's a well conditioned athlete, but he's not a boxer."

Buster says Conor's only shot is hitting Floyd with a "Hail Mary punch" -- but he expects Floyd to flat-out dominate.

Douglas was a 42-to-1 underdog when he knocked Tyson out.

Right now, Conor's about a 4-to-1 dog ... but over 90 PERCENT of bets are being put on him to upset.

Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor is a 12-round super welterweight matchup that pits the legendary boxer Mayweather against the all-time MMA great McGregor in the main event of an unprecedented four-fight pay-per-view boxing event.  Mayweather vs. McGregor will take place Saturday, Aug. 26 at 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.  The event is produced and distributed live by SHOWTIME PPV, promoted by Mayweather Promotions and sponsored by Corona. Coverage of the Prelims will begin on FOX and FOX Deportes at 6 p.m. ET/3 p.m. PT.