Rodriguez vs. Fuentes: BoxingScene Staff Predictions

By Jake Donovan

On a loaded boxing day and evening, the junior flyweight clash between Francisco Rodriguez Jr. and Moises Fuentes looks the part to be the most likely to shake up the 2015 Fight of the Year race.

That allure remains given their fighting styles, but some appeal was lost when Rodriguez failed to make weight on Friday. Still, the show goes on even if a title shot is only at stake for one fighter.

Both fighters have fallen short to Donnie Nietes, who was due to face the winner of Saturday’s headliner in Tecate, Baja California, Mexico. With Rodriguez failing to make the junior flyweight limit, such an opportunity exists only for Fuentes (22-2-1, 12KOs). 

Saturday marks Fuentes’ fourth fight since suffering a knockout loss to Nietes in their rematch last May. The two previously fought to a 12-round draw in March ’03, Fuentes’ first fight at junior flyweight after vacating his strawweight crown. He heads into Saturday having won his last three starts, including a 6th round knockout over fellow former strawweight titlist Oswaldo Novoa in July. 

Rodriguez (17-3-1, 11KOs) appeared to have enjoyed a career resurrection for most of 2014. The 22-year old from Monterrey, Mexico is among a lengthy list of foes who’ve fallen miserably short at the lethal hands of Roman Gonzalez, but managed a six-fight unbeaten streak following the Sept. ’13 knockout loss.

Among the stretch was a strawweight title winning knockout effort over previously unbeaten champ Merlito Sabillo last March. The win was followed up by a successful two-belt unification victory over Katsunari Takayama in their unforgettable war last August, one that was named 2014 Fight of the Year by anyone who recognizes boxing beyond the mainstream level. 

It seemed to be Rodriguez’ last day in the sun, as he fought to a disappointing draw with journeyman Jomar Fajardo last November before getting it right the second time around this past January. It was enough to march into a junior flyweight title shot, though coming up short in a decision loss to Nietes this past July in Philippines.

Read on to see how the staff at BoxingScene.com believes Saturday night’s junior flywieght action goes down in Mexico. 

BOXINGSCENE.COM STAFF PREDICTIONS: FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ JR. vs. DONNIE NIETES

Jake Donovan (Rodriguez Dec.): It’s a shame that Rodriguez hasn’t been able to capture the same success he enjoyed during a brief yet thrilling run as a strawweight titlist. Not sure if his missing weight was due to struggling during camp, or simply choosing to come in heavy even though it meant blowing a title shot. Still, I believe he has enough left to fend off Fuentes, finding a way to scrape together a decision win. 

Michael Gibbons (Fuentes Dec.): I am going with Fuentes  by split decision, but this fight could swing either.  Should be an action fight.

Takahiro Onaga (Rodriguez Dec.): I have this as another fan friendly fight with Rodriguez and think he win, however I don't think he ever has the success at 108 that he had at 105. Still, very fun fighter and this should be very good fight.

Victor Salazar (Fuentes Dec.): Not sure if it’s an upset or not but I like Fuentes by decision. 

Alexey Sukachev (Fuentes Dec.): Rodriguez is unstable and lacks some experience at this level. Fuentes, who fought the best light flyweight in the world to the even trms, will make his opponent miss, and will capitalize well on ths mistakes, getting a convincing victory in the fight.