By David P. Greisman and Thomas Gerbasi (photo by Tom Casino/Showtime)

DAVID P. GREISMAN: Usually when the No. 1 guy in a division faces a largely untested prospect, we decry the match-up as either the top fighter facing lesser opposition or the prospect getting a shot he doesn’t yet deserve.

Why then, are we so looking forward to Mikkel Kessler’s fight this Saturday against Andre Ward?

Kessler-Ward, airing on Showtime from Oakland, Calif., is the third fight in the first stage of the “Super Six” super-middleweight tournament.

Kessler, 30, was the entrenched No. 2 at 168 until champion Joe Calzaghe left for light heavyweight and, ultimately, retirement. He is now 42-1(32 knockouts), and all he’s done in the two years since the loss to Calzaghe is fight opponents unbefitting of his position in the division.

To many, however, Andre Ward (25 years old, 20-0 with 13 knockouts) is a step up for Kessler from the likes of Dimitri Sartison, Danilo Haussler and Gusmyr Perdomo, even though Ward’s biggest wins have come over guys such as Edison Miranda, Henry Buchanan, Jerson Ravelo and Rubin Williams.

Tom, what are we going to find out this weekend – that Ward belongs in the same ring as Kessler, or that Kessler belongs as the favorite to win the tournament? Could both be possible?

THOMAS GERBASI: David, I’m gonna go out on a limb immediately here and just blurt it out – Andre Ward is not only going to win this fight Saturday night, but I’m picking him to be in the finals against either Kessler or Arthur Abraham. There, I said it.

I guess I have to back up my assertions now, yet in a lot of ways, I’ve just got a gut feeling about Ward and about this weekend being the true start of his career as a top-flight super middleweight.

But if I had to break this fight down, I’d start with the speed edge. Ward is fleet of hand and foot, and the last true (and maybe only) world-class speedster Kessler has been in with has been the only man to beat him, Joe Calzaghe. And while Calzaghe’s punches are of the flashy, flurrying kind, Ward – who can do that too – may have a little bit more on the fastball.

Kessler eats a few of those blinding shots and he may get frustrated and let Ward take over the fight, much like he did against Calzaghe.

Of course, you can’t talk about Ward without discussing a chin that has been dented a few times over the years, and Kessler, while not a one-punch knockout artist, is an accurate puncher with some zip behind his shots. If he hurts Ward, he may be able to finish him where the journeymen that rocked the 2004 Olympian previously couldn’t.

But has Ward sewn up his sloppy early habits and gotten what he calls his man strength, and is he now able to take heavy shots and just shake them off? Well, his bout against Edison Miranda earlier this year is a good sign that this is true, as he ate some bombs and just ignored them as he stuck to a game plan that earned him a clear-cut decision win.

So if Ward has the speed to frustrate Kessler and the chin to take his best, it’s the Oakland native’s fight, right?

I think so, but there are intangibles that come with 43 fights and a long stay at the top of the division, making Kessler the rightful betting favorite here. But again, I’ll go back to my gut feeling and just say that Ward’s going to surprise a lot of people Saturday night. Not with his talent, because we all know that he has that. But instead, I think we’re going to see a grittier Andre Ward, one that’s not going to shy away from a tough fight, and one that’s going to be willing to dig deep and sacrifice like he never has before to get the victory.

After Saturday night, the idea of Ward winning this tournament will not be so far-fetched. Let’s call it Ward W12.

And while the crystal ball hasn’t been wrong yet this fall, I gotta feeling you’re gonna disagree with me this time David.

DAVID P. GREISMAN: Once again, you’re right, Tom. But not about Ward winning.

Indeed, your picking record this fall has been perfect – in previous weeks, you favored Abraham over Taylor, Dirrell over Froch, Adamek over Golota, Dawson over Johnson, Haye over Valuev, and Pacquiao over Cotto, and I won’t hold the Dirrell pick (in which you said Dirrell would “stink out the joint en route to a 12-round decision win”) against you because, well, Dirrell stunk out the joint, and I felt Dirrell won.

Still, I’m not going to follow your lead and say that Andre Ward will beat Mikkel Kessler.

I’ll give you this: For a boxer with just 20 bouts in five years as a pro, Ward fights like a veteran five-tool baseball player. One need look only to his 19th bout, his biggest victory to date, a one-sided decision earlier this year over Edison Miranda.

Ward showed a versatile offense, fighting both on the inside and outside, fighting both with an orthodox stance and as a southpaw, using spacing and footwork, sending out combinations and an assortment of punches, and even bullying the bully with his head in clinches.

It is a testament to Ward’s amateur credentials (a gold medal in the 2004 Olympics) and commitment to development (in lieu of the usual record-building activity) that he looks the part of a challenger even though he’s yet to prove himself one.

I don’t think he has what it takes to beat Kessler. Not yet, at least.

Kessler is used to dealing with speed. He was getting the better of Calzaghe before Calzaghe made a mid-fight adjustment and ratcheted up his activity. While Ward is a busy fighter, I don’t place him, speed-wise or talent-wise, on Calzaghe’s level.

And if Ward turns southpaw, and he does so often, it won’t be anything Kessler hasn’t seen before. Calzaghe, of course, is a lefty, as was Kessler’s tune-up victim a couple of months ago, Gusmyr Perdomo.

Looking again at Ward-Miranda, we saw Miranda coming forward most of the fight, trying to catch Ward, and when he did, catching Ward with right hands. Miranda is a good test of Ward’s talent, but there’s good reason why Miranda hasn’t accomplished at 168 anywhere close to what Kessler has accomplished.

If Ward is a versatile five-tool baseball player, then Kessler is the classic football offense, three yards and a cloud of dust. There’s nothing flashy about it, but it gets him victory as he drives through whatever’s in front of him.

Kessler, offensively, is largely jabs and crosses, the standard European-style fighter, though he does have the occasional hook and uppercut. Defensively, he blocks plenty of punches with his gloves, and uses small adjustments in spacing to move away from shots.

Miranda was the slower pressure fighter for most of Ward-Miranda. I believe Kessler and Ward will switch off who is coming forward, and I believe that when Kessler chooses to do so, he will do so more effectively than Miranda did. His right hands will land more often and carry more power, slowing down Ward’s pace to a level Kessler can handle better (as compared to Calzaghe’s pace), and bringing Kessler the decision victory.

That’ll give Europeans three victories over Americans in these first-stage fights. At least one American will win in the second and third stages of this round-robin part of the tournament – Stage 2 has Andre Dirrell facing Arthur Abraham and Jermain Taylor facing Ward (plus Froch against Kessler), and Stage 3 has Dirrell against Ward and Taylor against Kessler (plus Froch against Abraham).

Your crystal ball could be half-right, having an off-day about Andre Ward against Mikkel Kessler tonight, but still coming up correct down the line about Ward making it to the finals.

But first, let’s see what Ward has to offer against Kessler.