by Keith Terceira

An MGM “Grand” event is about to take place in Las Vegas this weekend when WBA welterweight champion Miguel Angel Cotto (32-0 26 KOs) squares off against Antonio Margarito (36-5 26 KOs). The recent rash of bad PPV events will take a backseat when these two step into the ring to settle just who is the giant of the 147-pound division. I’ll leave the promo’s for the fight to HBO and get right into the brass tacks of the fight.

Miguel Cotto brings to Nevada the style that Americans love to watch, that brawling, in your face at all times swarming technique that harkens back to Dempsey, Marciano, and Hagler in a 147-pound package. Just like those fighters though he eats way to many punches for my liking. Defensively Cotto has begun to improve as his level of competition increased but in Antonio Margarito he will face his first welterweight in a light middleweight’s body.

Cotto has thrilled fight fans with his durability, punching power, and in the manner that he seems to get stronger as a fight wears on, but that was against junior welters not true big men of the current division he holds a title in. Shane Mosley is the only true 147-pounder that Cotto has faced and never has Cotto faced a top ranked welterweight fighter over 5’ 9”. Mosley showed us that a real welterweight takes some of the late round surge from the Caguas native but I will touch on that later.

Margarito who has fought at 154 on several occasions will hold a six-inch reach advantage and a 4-inch height advantage coming to the fight with a 5’ 11 frame. Margarito won’t bring the hand speed that Zab Judah did but he will bring a power that Cotto has never faced.

Miguel Cotto has been hurt both when campaigning at junior welter and welter. Ricardo Torres had Cotto in serious trouble on several occasions and let the fight slip away and Zab Judah hurt Cotto early in the fight but Cotto was too fresh at that point and was able to recover for a 11 round victory. His legacy of power possibly has diminished slightly in the higher weight with Urkal and Judah going 11 and Mosley going the distance. Gomez and Quintana were more on the scale of tune-ups rather than seriously challenging matches.

On the other hand Margarito has made a career in stopping some of the best true welters, and suffered a close loss to Paul Williams and a cut loss to Daniel Santos for the WBO light middleweight crown. Some fight critics have made statements that Cintron and Golden Johnson are not to be compared to Judah and Mosley. We disagree only because they forget to refer to Clottey, Lujian, Antonio Diaz, and highly regarded [at that time] Hercules Kyvelos.

Keys to the fight;

Margarito has strength in both hands, works the body as well as Cotto does and has perfected the left and right uppercut. He has a tendency to over swing the left hook at a distance but works the left uppercut, straight right fairly well if he stays centered , by adding the left hook to the combo he should catch Cotto coming in which Miguel will have to do with the taller fighter.

Antonio must fight tall and not give away his height advantage by getting into long inside exchanges because when he throws his right he leans to far left making him off center and out of balance this leaves the opening for Cotto’s left hooks. Should Cotto stop Margarito it will be this serious flaw that leads the way to victory for Miguel. Look for the double left hook, one to the body after slipping the right to get in back to the head to stop Antonio if his camp has not corrected this flaw.

Cotto has his own problems technically though and we saw them in the Mosley, Judah, and Torres fight. He has a tendency to lean into his fighter when he gets jabbed, he attempts to come in under it or around it but leans in with his guard split that makes him open for the uppercut. I expect to see Antonio often use a three punch combo of 1-6-3 or jab, right uppercut, left hook. Judah, Mosley, and Torres hit Cotto often with the left and from a power standpoint Margarito has more power than the three.

Cotto likes working the body for half the fight, breaking down his opponent so with Margarito the referee has got to be on his toes about low blows early from Miguel. Not intentionally thrown punches (unless Cotto is hurt see: Judah fight) but Cotto has had a problem with low punches with shorter fighters and now that he is fighting a much taller fighter than usual for him it just stands to reason they may become a factor. Margarito is no stranger to body work and Kermit Cintron can attest to his veracity, but he doesn‘t want to get into a war of body shots that will keep him inside for to long.

The way Cotto works the body has worked well against the lighter hitting juniors but he does have a habit of winging the punches a bit midrange and dropping the right when he does, that exposes his chin to the left hook. He must get inside to win this fight and Margarito can capitalize on this. Though slower with his hand speed, Margarito can and will catch Cotto coming in. Keeping his elbows tight and working the short left hook when Miguel comes at the body and uppercuts as Cotto attempts to shorten the distance are the keys to victory for Margarito.

Margarito works well inside and out which is much different than what Cotto has faced recently. Getting inside on a boxer negates a boxers strengths and has worked in Miguel’s favor, when he gets inside on Margarito, he may find that he doesn’t hold that advantage any longer. When hurt Miguel likes to grab and clinch but does it in a way that he reaches up around the neck and has to lunge into his opponent, that distance will increase with the Mexican fighter . If Margarito pivots and throws the uppercut under those arms then the power shot Cotto doesn’t have the clinch to protect him.

Defensively I think Margarito is an under-rated fighter, though he lost the Williams fight the video gives you a good look at how strong he is at picking off shots with his gloves and countering. Cotto as well is fair in defense when that is what he is concentrating on, when he throws his hands though he leaves openings in that defense. I don’t feel that Cotto has the footwork to box Antonio for long if he goes that route and should he try that Margarito can simply stop and force Cotto to come to him rather than follow the boxer around the ring. That puts the fight back into Cotto coming in and getting caught by counters when his defense is most suspect.

Give a big edge in hand speed to Puerto Rico but that will be partially negated by the reach and height advantage of his opponent if Margarito doesn’t fall into the trap of fighting small. Cotto wants to make Margarito get into exchanges inside and force him to fight in a crouch. If Margarito takes the bait in that trap it’s a win for the Puerto Rican champion.

In the Mosley fight that stretch drive durability that Cotto has built his reputation on disappeared from the 10-12th rounds with Mosley landing more power shots in the final three. When Cotto reached into the well those final three rounds and found it empty, it seemed to confuse and trouble him visibly. When you compare Mosley to Margarito in both size and strength we could see an even larger drain on the reserves of Miguel.

Fight fans have a tendency to forget the actual content of matches when their fighter wins but trainers closely examine those minutes. Those of you out there that think this will be a breeze for the tough Puerto Rican need to revisit his victories against Mosley, Judah, and others . Don’t miss this fight based on results and to save the cost because Margarito has one punch power that Sugar Shane and Zab didn’t.

I don’t feel that Margarito will fall for the plan to stay inside fighting small, I think he will hold his own on the inside when he needs to, keep his distance when he should, landing heavy power shots when Cotto looks to box him on the outside, this will force Cotto to punch up the whole fight working on his conditioning. Cotto gets hit with way to many punches for my liking in order to exchange with his opponent. The holes in Cotto’s defense when he is on the attack combined with his having make it a brawl in the trenches with a truly heavy-handed, long limbed welterweight forces me to give the edge to Margarito. Whoever prevails I think we will see both fighters take some tremendous shots and the most damage yet of their careers.

We Americans love our brawlers and punchers so I won’t be devastated if Cotto makes me eat crow.

Margarito by late round TKO..

Keith Terceira is UBC North American Chairman & Vice President and weekly contributor to TalkinBoxing with Billy C radio broadcast. Feedback can be directed to Keith@talkinboxing.com