Juan Diaz-Paulie Malignaggi: The Pre-Fight Report Card

By Cliff Rold (photo by Hogan Photos/Golden Boy)

While hesitating to call it a comeback, the return from a first knockout defeat is usually a tricky thing in today’s boxing world.  It didn’t used to be as much and isn’t at every level now.  A fighter can be stopped in an amateur tournament one month and be right back in a final the next.  Knockouts happen.  They are part of boxing.  

Juan Diaz has a chance to prove it this weekend.  Not surprisingly, his team may have picked the perfect foe to prove it against.

Paulie Malignaggi is not a bad fighter.  He’s displayed skill and courage over the course of his pro tenure.  What he hasn’t displayed might be all anyone needs to know about this one.

Let’s go to the report card.

The Ledgers

Juan Diaz

Age: 25

Titles: None

Previous Titles: WBA Lightweight (2004-07, 6 Defenses); WBA/WBO (2007, 1 Defense); WBA/IBF/WBO (2007-08)

Height: 5’6

Weight: 137.7 lbs.

Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 134.6 lbs.

Hails From: Houston, Texas

Record: 34-2, 17 KO

Record in Title Fights: 8-2, 4 KO, 1 KOBY

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 4 (Lakva Sim, Julien Lorcy, Acelino Freitas, Julio Diaz)

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 2 (Nate Campbell, Juan Manuel Marquez)

Vs.

Paulie Malignaggi

Age: 28

Title: None

Previous Titles: IBF Jr. Welterweight (2007-08, 2 Defenses)

Height: 5’8 ½

Weight: 138.2 lbs.

Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 139.35 lbs.

Hails from: Brooklyn, New York

Record: 26-2, 5 KO

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 1 (Lovemore N’Dou)

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 2 (Miguel Cotto, Ricky Hatton)

Pre-Fight Grades

Speed: Diaz B+; Malignaggi B+

Intangibles: Diaz B+; Malignaggi B

In terms of speed, this fight may be about equal.  On a single shot, Malignaggi probably gets off quicker but Diaz is still quick on shots number five and six.  He throws fusillades of shots and all but two foes have been able to successfully deal with it.  For Malignaggi to win, his speed will have to come in his feet.  He’ll have to jab and move, forcing Diaz to turn and reset without getting those volleys off.  Against Hatton last year, Malignaggi didn’t do that and made Hatton look like a bigger puncher than he had in years, sending Malignaggi reeling about from several hard, flush right hands.

The reason Malignaggi would be well advised to use his legs is the reason he was probably picked for Diaz’s first bout since being stopped by Marquez in February, still the leading candidate for Fight of the Year.  Malignaggi scored a good knockdown against N’Dou when he won his lone title but outside that his punching power is somewhere south of the Rosenbloom line.  Diaz isn’t a huge banger either; what stoppages he’s scored in recent years have been products of attrition, wearing Freitas and Julio Diaz down with so many shots they elected to sit out.  However, those shots do multiply and his body attack is wicked.

Due to his low knockout percentage, one might assume a defensive mastery in Malignaggi.  While he can be elusive, against better opposition he has been hittable.  Miguel Cotto roughed him up even as Malignaggi showed game in lasting the distance and stealing his share of rounds.  N’Dou (the second time in 2008), Ngoudjo, and Hatton all got through his guard with regularity.  Diaz can be hard to catch because his pressure makes it hard to target him.  However, both Campbell and Marquez showed that with patience his aggression can be used against him and he can be worn down with hard counters.

Beyond the obvious elements, both of these guys are no quit types.  Malignaggi wore of mask of despair when Hatton was ended early while he was still on his feet.  He was trapped in the bout, unable to find a plan B because he didn’t have the punches to make the turnaround once behind.  He still wanted to hear the final bell.  Diaz, cut in both his defeats, appeared disturbed by the sight of his own blood which may suggest some give in his confidence under duress.  There was no give though in his effort.  He kept throwing shots in those fights, marching into defeat with both hands flailing.  It might not make for a long career, but it continues to make for one which must be seen and respected.

The Pick

Diaz was on the fast track to Lightweight greatness prior to his losses and, at 25, may still get there.  Losing to a Campbell who put it all together for a career best night, and to a Marquez bound for Canastota, is no shame.  Epic warrior Bobby Chacon, a stylistically different fighter than Diaz, had his issues with veterans on the way up and yet still managed to carve his own place in history.  This fight, Saturday night on HBO, will be about letting Diaz remember what he can be best at against an opponent who doesn’t have the weapons to stop him from doing it.  Malignaggi probably makes it the distance but loses a lopsided decision after the final bell. 

Report Card Extras

Of course this will not be the only bout on tap on HBO with two others in support.  As noted elsewhere this week ( https://www.boxingscene.com/?m=show&id=21694 ), the best fight of the weekend is likely the chief support to Diaz-Malignaggi.  For the IBF Jr. Lightweight belt, former Featherweight titlist Robert Guerrero (24-1-1, 17 KO) battles beltholder Malcolm Klassen (24-4-2, 15 KO) and it should steal the show.

Also featured will be rising Middleweight Daniel Jacobs (17-0, 15 KO) against the best foe of his young career, Ishe Smith (21-3, 9 KO).  What are the picks on these?

Look for an upset in the middle with Klassen by narrow points verdict or a late stoppage on a cut against Guerrero and look for Jacobs to struggle early before closing for a decision win over Smith.

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com