By Rick Reeno

 

New York's Madison Square Garden, also known as the Mecca of boxing, will play host to the final career bout of Joe Calzaghe (45-0, 32KOs). Calzaghe's entire fifteen-year career is riding on the shoulders of this event. He was the super middleweight champion for over a decade and accumulated a record of 21 successful defenses. Calzaghe's legacy, regardless of his past accomplishments, would take a nice hit if Roy Jones Jr. (52-4, 38 KOs), nearly 40-years-old and past his prime, pulled off the upset. Jones is trying to resurrect his career by beating the man recognized in most circles as the number-two pound-for-pound fighter in the world.

 

The staff of BoxingScene.com comes together to voice their opinions, strategies and predictions for the big fight.

 

Robert Morales - Roy Jones Jr. may have three consecutive victories, but let's not get too excited about his wins over Prince Badi Ajamu, Anthony Hanshaw and a washed-up Felix Trinidad Jr. Calzaghe is in his prime, and he will win a wide decision.

Cliff Rold - Calzaghe W UD Jones: In the late 1990s or early 2000s, Jones and Calzaghe could well have been a classic.  Calzaghe is one of the few fighters of Jones’ prime years with enough speed and ring intelligence to have upset Roy’s rhythm and made him truly work for it.  It never happened and this weekend we hope for, at best, a good fight.  Ironically, it is now Jones whose hopes will rely on upsetting Calzaghe’s rhthym.  Hopkins did it in April in the first half of the fight and Jones could walk Calzaghe into traps early in similar fashion.  The problem is doing it for twelve rounds and being willing to throw enough to keep Calzaghe at bay.  On both counts, it’s a tough assignment.  Calzaghe is not Pavlik or Mijares; he’s a decade long proven elite fighter who still has the hunger for universal acclaim, excellent hand speed, and an awkwardness as efficient as Jones’ has been through their careers.  Jones has already stated that a loss doesn’t harm his legacy, arguing the pressure is on Calzaghe, but it smacks of a built-in excuse akin to those which followed his non-effort against Tarver in the rubber match.  Jones is right of course; a loss won’t hurt his legacy much but a win protects Calzaghe’s and he’ll get it by a unanimous decision where Jones has his moments.

Mitch Abramson - Most everyone I speak to, boxing insiders, casual fans, fighters, etc., are picking Jones, citing his power and hand-speed. Yes, a prime Jones would beat Calzaghe, but Jones is a shell of what he once was, and I have to believe that getting knocked out twice in 2004 in back-to-back fights has changed him irrevocably as a fighter. Besides, who has he beaten to merit even getting this fight? I have to believe that his appeal is all based on name recognition. Jones beat a badly faded Trinidad who hadn't fought in nearly three years. He beat fringe contenders in Hanshaw and Ajamu after losing three straight. Compare that to Calzaghe who has recently beaten Hopkins and Kessler, Bika and Lacy and there's a vast difference in the competition that each has faced. I have to go with Calzaghe here. If Jones pulls off the upset, then more power to him, and more power to the sport, which has shown that anything is possible with Hopkins and Darchinyan winning recently. But I would be shocked if Jones wins here. Calzaghe by decision.

Patrick Kehoe - "Once upon a time in America, it would have been madness to pick against Roy Jones in a fight at or near 175lbs against a fighter - even a champion - essentially trying to outbox him. That was before an African American had been elected President of the United States and the Human Genome Projected had mapped our DNA; clearly, we now live in another age: The Post-Jones Era. And yet Joe Calzaghe, aged 36, is only 3 years younger than the 39 year-old Jones. But those 3 years seem a life time. Unless, Calzaghe has aged over night and Roy Jones has been drinking for the same fountain of youth as Bernard Hopkins. Calzaghe, he of the brittle hands and wilful speed and incessant punching, should be able to let his hands go often enough, bounce in and out and about sufficiently to avoid Jones big sweeping hooks with his back on the ropes or at ring center to notch another 12 round decision. And then, as far as fighting ever again, say it ain't so Joe!"

Jake Donovan - Calzaghe by Decision. After watching my last two major predictions (Pavlik W12 Hopkins, Mijares W12 Darchinyan) go as wrong as could've possibly been the case, I'm almost scared to once again go for the perceived safe pick. But I just haven't seen enough from Roy at any point in the past 4-5 years (basically, post-Ruiz) to even regard him as a live underdog. As much as it saddens me to have to pick against Roy for the first time in his career, Joe's still too good for just about anyone at 175 and below, never mind today's version of Roy.

 

TK Stewart - I don't like Roy's chances in this one at all.  He hasn't scored a knockout in over six years and his recent wins over Trinidad, Hanshaw and Ajamu have not been strong performances.  Trinidad was a shell of himself and Jones' wins over Hanshaw and Ajamu were victories over fighters of a much lesser caliber.  Jones has not looked like Jones since he beat Johnny Ruiz and that was a long, long time ago.  Calzaghe, while not a big puncher, is a strong and busy fighter that always sets a fast pace. Jones, who likes to only fight in spurts, will find himself at a disadvantage on the scorecards because of Calzaghe's busier style and because he throws so many punches.  I like Calzaghe by unanimous decision with him winning 9 or 10 rounds.

 

Lem Satterfield - I’m picking Calzaghe by decision or late-round stoppage. I believe that he can catch Roy, late. Not sure if Calzaghe can win a decision. But if he does, it will be close. So the final decision is Calzaghe.

 

CompuBox/Bob Cannobio - Calzaghe by unanimous decision...Super Joe's too busy and elusive for Mr. Jones, who can't win this fight by laying on the ropes.  Jones needs to keep the fight in the middle of the ring and throw combinations - and it's been a while since he's done that...

 

Lyle Fitzsimmons - An athlete more than a bruiser, Calzaghe has been most successful when he's been able to use his physical gifts to either outclass (Lacy) or simply outwork (Hopkins) his opponents.  In Jones, however, he meets a foe who's naturally bigger and stronger while essentially matching him in terms of speed and flashy work rate.  Assuming Jones is actually in the mood to fight as much as clown, expect him to handle "Super Joe's" best shots and land some of his own, which, by definition, ought to be more damaging.  That toll will be fully paid in the late rounds, when Jones either wears his man down enough for a late stoppage or cruises to a decisive points win... say, 8-4 in rounds.

 

Carlos Irusta - I pick Roy Jones Jr. on points - because he has more experience and has good hand speed. He will control the fight on route to going the distance.

 

Dave Sholler - BoxingScene readers will tell you that I'm not a big Joe Calzaghe fan. While I have always had a soft spot for southpaws, Calzaghe's slap happy approach irks me. I understand that he has used the "small ball" tactic successfully for over a decade, but I tend to prefer a homerun every once in a while. When it comes to Saturday's bout between Calzaghe and Roy Jones Jr., I think Jones has a chance to hit the long ball. As "Superman" has said, he has little to lose in this fight. Roy can take chances and risks that he would normally avoid. With that said, I'm taking Jones Jr. to win this fight by unanimous decision. I like that Roy has reverted back to being his jolly old self and it will show against Calzaghe.

 

Keith Terceira - When I was calling a couple of weeks ago for B-Hop to defeat Pavlik everyone thought I had lost my mind,  siding with a 43 year old fighter who was just hanging on to grab a payday... Well he grabbed a payday and set up what may be the biggest pay-per-view event of 2009, if Roy Jones Jr. can summon up the strength and will that defined his career up until the Tarver days. While Calzaghe is a first ballot Hall of Famer, I agree with Glen Johnson that he is a slapper and may not have the speed and movement to control the tempo of a bout against RJJ.

 

Roy Jones Jr. will be driven by the prospects of meeting Bernard Hopkins in a mega fight, driven by the need to not be overshadowed and keep pace with the Hopkins win, and motivated by the opportunity to set in stone the brand of his promotional company Square Ring. Calzaghe seems to be talking way to much prior to the fight about retirement which makes me believe that he is setting the stage for excuses.

 

Sorry UK fight fans but this may just be another Hatton-Mayweather without the KO. Jones pulls a B-Hop but doesn't stop Calzaghe: Roy Jones Jr. by UD

 

Ronnie Nathanielsz - I have always liked Roy Jones as a boxer and thought he looked good in his last fight against Tito Trinidad. What impressed me was Roy's speed and his condition. At 39 he is no spring chicken but Calzaghe is not a young man either.

 

I don't think Calzaghe has much power so Jones will be able to take his pitter-patter punches and counter with stronger combinations which, in the end, will inflict the first defeat on Calzaghe's record.

 

JE Grant - Five to ten years ago, when this bout should have taken place, Roy Jones, 39, would have stood as a prohibitive favorite. If Joe Calzaghe had fast hands, Jones had supersonic hands.  RJ also had a knack for being several feet away from the wild swings of his invariably frustrated foes.  No one came close to Jones until his return from his heavyweight venture against John Ruiz which fundamentally altered his capacity for weathering storms (particularly in the form of one Antonio Tarver).  Some will assume that since he is now riding a three-fight win streak he has been able to re-gather his magical powers.  He hasn't. Well crafted match-making can make old champs look like up-and-comers.  Nonetheless Jones has some real advantages in this bout. He is the real light-heavyweight and he still carries much greater power than Calzaghe.  His hand-speed is now merely super-fast, probably on par with Calzaghe.  The Welshman Calzaghe is still riding high from his win over Bernard Hopkins and is no doubt emboldened by the fact that Hopkins went on to destroy Kelly Pavlik.  This level of confidence, coupled with a dedication rarely found in 37 year-old fighters, probably gives him the edge in overall physical readiness. Chances are that the once-king of all he surveyed, Roy Jones, is well past his day while Calzaghe has a little juice left.  Calzaghe by decision.

 

Joe Harrison - Joe Calzaghe's victory over Bernard Hopkins seemed even more impressive after Hopkins recently handed Kelly Pavlik his first loss. This is one of the many reasons why Calzaghe is the favorite going in against Roy Jones Jr. Another reason is because Jones is over the hill and a shadow of his former self. Although Jones showed that he still has a little left in the tank by defeating Trinidad in his last bout, there will not be enough left in the tank to defeat Calzaghe.

Calzaghe by unanimous decision.

 

Brent Matteo Alderson - The Roy Jones show is over and it has been since 2003.  My buddy Jason was telling me how impressive Roy looked in his slap fight on the first 24/7 special, but come on, that was against a big middle-aged non-athlete.  Is that what HBO has to do to show off his skills?  BoxingScene chief Rick Reeno would look like a world beater against that guy!  Anyways I like Calzaghe by a mile, but truly feel that this is a victory over Roy Jones in name only and that Roy would have thoroughly dominated Calzaghe in his prime.  I know some people thought my guarantee was disrespectful, but I didn’t mean it to be and actually intended to honor Roy’s legacy as one of the most gifted boxers to ever put on a pair of gloves by preemptively attacking the legitimacy of Calzaghe’s eminent victory. 

 

Ernest Gabion - Jones by unanimous decision. Joe hasn't seen a fighter like this and in my opinion is taking Jones lightly. Like Jones says - "I have nothing to lose."

 

Paul Gallegos - Whoever I have been picking lately has been getting beaten bad. Calzaghe should be able to beat Jones with hand speed and a solid jab. Then again, Bernard beat the hell out of Pavlik, so what the hell do I know. The smart money is on Calzaghe to win and win handily. I don't even know if Jones has a puncher's chance anymore - especially with Calzaghe's good chin. Calzaghe in a unanimous decision.

 

Ryan Songalia - Bottom line is this: Joe Calzaghe is still great and Roy Jones hasn't been great for a long time. There is no comparison between their recent ring accomplishments. Calzaghe beat Hopkins, Kessler and Lacy, whereas Jones is picking on retired welterweight stars and fringe contenders.

 

Calzaghe still has that insatiable desire to win whereas Jones has reached the point where defeat is acceptable. And I don't care what they say in press releases or in interviews, once you turn that corner, there is no turning back. I have Calzaghe by decision.

 

Amy Green - I'll pick Jones, probably out of sheer sentiment. Simply not liking Joe Calzaghe is too shallow of an excuse to  hope Roy faces him bearing more than a resemblance of the fighter that dazzled with his victories over Vinny Paz and Virgil Hill. Roy may be arrogant, but his skills proved why. Joe Calzaghe is rude, insulting and hardly convincing in his win over Bernard Hopkins to make me think otherwise. Ever.

Don Colgan - Calzaghe by a 9th round TKO. Look for a Joe Frazier type attack from Joe and Roy doesn't have the tools of the great Hopkins. He will hold his own, sustain an attack and perhaps even hurt Joe in an early round, yet slowly wilt under a barrage of blows.

 "JC" Casarez- Jones by split decision. Roy won't be the smaller man and Joe will have to deal with Jones' speed. Roy's problems in defeat have been to pressure fighters and big punchers, that is not who Joe Calzaghe is. Joe finds ways to win by throwing lots of punches in spots but has never been considered a big puncher hence the label of Slappy Joe. Look for Roy to work well off the ropes when pinned and his counter right and check left hook will be the difference. I know it's crazy to pick Jones but his experiences in the ring will carry him to a decision victory. Remember a few weeks ago picking Hopkins over Pavlik was anything but popular.

Rick Reeno - The way I see it, Jones did not appear like a world class fighter when he beat mediocre competition like Hanshaw and Ajamu. Andre Dirrell, not exactly a knockout artist, put away Hanshaw in five rounds. And don't forget, Hanshaw was a super middleweight prospect, moving up in weight and coming off a draw on ShoBox.

Jones’ skills have deteriorated to the point where his January bout with a retired Felix Trinidad, out of the ring for nearly three years and fighting almost four divisions above his best weight class - was made to look competitive.  The same Trinidad who was dominated for twelve full rounds by Winky Wright at 160-pounds in 2005. Jones had Trinidad down twice, hurt twice, and it was crystal clear that he couldn’t muster up the energy to close the show.

Don’t forget about his dreadful performance in the third meeting with Antonio Tarver. Jones basically quit in the middle of the fight and was satisfied with being able to go the distance without being knocked out [and Tarver came close to accomplishing that]. Then came the controversy in the post-fight, where Jones [in so many words] told reporters that he intentionally held back during the fight so his father, training him for the first time in a long time, would not receive the accolades for helping him achieve a big trilogy win.

Calzaghe is closer to his prime, hits hard enough to get respect and has one of the highest workrates in the sport. Some people are picking Jones by way of an upset and pointing to Hopkins, at age 43, recently dominating a 26-year-old killer like Kelly Pavlik. There is no comparison between the two fights. Calzaghe is a better fighter than Pavlik and Hopkins, at this point, is a better fighter than Jones. Hopkins has been fighting a very high level of competition since 2006. Hopkins has never been decisively beat or dominated. Hopkins had no problems dominating Tarver in 2006 and beating Wright in 2007. He came within an inch of beating Calzaghe in April. Jones has lost three of his last six, two of those losses by knockout and his three wins came against two mid-level opponents and one fighter who came out of retirement after nearly three years of inactivity.

Jones is one of my all-time favorites but the facts are the facts. Calzaghe by unanimous decision and I wouldn’t be surprised if he wore Jones out and stopped him late.